Can you ever be wrong by folding here ?

Hi all!


As you move up in the limits, more and more players tend to put pressure on you with more and more hands. One situation I have trouble with is when I raise preflop with say AK, I flop top pair and bet and get called by 2-3 players. The turn is a blank and I get check-raised.


Can a fold ever be wrong here? (Against this many opponent as well as a player who has shown strength preflop and on the flop -me - you are usually beaten) Note that we are not heads-up.


I see opponents check-raise me here either with a set or if they just hit a second pair. The pot is usually good enough to draw to a second pair if you are facing 2 pair but you are drawing dead if facing a set.


Against typical opponents, can it ever be wrong to fold here? Sure you have to recognize that solid opponents might raise you with less than that, but I'm thinking about typical opponents.


Comments?


Nicolas Fradet (ThePrince)

It depends on the board, the pot and the opponent. I would more likely fold to a passive player and a board of A-8-9-Q, than I would to an aggressive opponent and a rag turn card that brought a flush draw. Note that if you are up against two pair, you may have 9 outs so it's not a bad idea to call down here.

I agree that if you are against a 2 pair, you have outs to call.


What I'm thinking is that typical opponents usually have either 2 pair or a set.


If you think it is 50% he has a set and 50% he has hit a second pair, you have to have a much bigger pot than you usually have, because now you can't suck out on a set.


I am thinking about simple opponents that would not necessarily check-raise you with a draw, only a better hand.


Nicolas

Without a doubt you are MUCH better off always calling than always folding.


There are 10 ways an opponent can make a set on the turn if you have top pair. There are 6 ways he can make top-and-bottom two-pair and 9 ways he can make middle two pair. There are 6 two-pair combinations (although, of course, few players play all those hands).


You should fold if you are sure you are beat AND its unlikely the opponent made 2-pair. This means almost never fold against assertive types.


There is no shame in calling and winning. Really.


- Louie

yeah but Louie,


if I think my opponent is as likely to have slowplayed a set (or hit it on the turn) or to have caught 2 pair on the turn, I'm not getting the best of it by always calling.


There is no draw here. The only 2 hands he could have is a set or 2 pair. With a pot of 7-8 BB, don't you agree you are getting the worst of it by always calling?


Nicolas

As I said you need to be REAL sure he's got you beat.

Louie,


You said "there are 10 ways an opponent can make a set on the turn if you flopped top pair". Isn't it that, by definition, a set is getting the third card of your pocket pairs? What am I missing here? Can you elaborate and correct me if I'm wrong? Thanks.