How far do you push the best hand

Playing 20-40 at a table that's not crazy loose, but has two or three players that are seeing 80% of the flops and doing some chasing. I'm dealt KhKd in middle position. UTG limps, call, call, I raise, call, fold, BTN calls, SB calls, BB folds. 7 of 9 players see the flop for two bets, I already don't like it.


Flop comes Jc5h4h.


Check to me, I bet, fold, BTN raises, SB calls, UTG calls, call, guy to my right 3-bets, I cap hoping to get SOMEONE to fold, but only the SB does. 5 players see the turn FOR FOUR BETS. I know two players are on heart draws, UTG and guy to my right. The button has a big jack, I think. The other EP guy could have literally anything, including a set or two pair because he would play 54o for a raise before the flop. I know I'm doomed, but still believe there's at least an 80% chance I have the best hand.


Turn is 9s. Doesn't make a straight, doesn't make a flush, hopefully doesn't make two pair. Checked to me, I bet, BTN raises, UTG calls, EP folds (hurrah!), guy to my right calls, I call. I KNOW in my gut that I have the best hand, but if the button hits her kicker, I'm done. If one or both of the heart draws has a pair and hits their kicker, I'm done. If a heart comes, I'm done. Was this right? Should I have 3-bet on the turn?


River is Jd. All check to the button who bets, other two players fold, I crying call because the pot is just TOO big and just what if a miracle has occurred and she was on the nut flush draw and was taking a shot at the pot. She shows QJo. Was it completely crazy to give away $40 here? (by the way, the other two players both said they had hearts, so at least I read it right...)


I guess my real question is if you have KK or AA and there are, say, greater than 5 people in the pot, do you get a little passive on the turn if there are obvious straight and flush draws out there (the philosophy any one person may have 5 outs for two pair or 9 outs for the flush or 8 outs for the straight, but up against their combined outs, you end up being the one who is behind?)


Thanks for the feedback....

"if you have KK or AA and there are, say, greater than 5 people in the pot, do you get a little passive on the turn if there are obvious straight and flush draws out there"


I don't. Lately I've been trying to follow HPFAP's advice for loose games. There's very little you can do to try to keep them from seeing, and possibly drawing out on you, the turn. So I slowplay on the flop and then try to be as aggressive as possible on the turn, to try to keep them from drawing out on me on the river. Here that would have meant, crazy as it sounds, checking the flop and hoping someone up front then bets the turn, in which case I raise if an agreeable card comes.


My fuzzy math comes up with $1040 in the pot when you had the choice of calling or folding for the $40 river bet. At 26:1, I've seen crazier things happen (she could have 5c-4c[?!]), so I don't think your call was completely crazy at all.


Assuming that one of the flush draws had the Ah and neither had the 9h nor a straight possible, I come up (again by my fuzzy math) with 12 cards on the river that lose the pot for you and 28 that win it.

Well, that's my point. My question is do you just assume that there are so many people drawing out on you and if they have top pair or a straight or flush draw they're staying no matter what that you should play less aggressively so that less of YOUR money goes in? Or do you accept that people might draw out on you but play aggressively so that they put more of THEIR money in to pay for that priviledge, and potentially get a couple of the drawers off the pot?

Look at it this way. On the turn, there were maybe 13 or so outs against you (depends on if the flush draws had pairs or straight draws as well). All of the other cards were winners for YOU. Even with all of their outs combined, you are still the favorite. So you should be happy to get as much of their money four-way on the turn as you can. Sure your variance goes up, but your expectation should go up as well. You were unlucky that someone hit one of the outs you had to pay off. If a heart comes, you get away cheaply on the river.


I don't think it really matters if your read was correct or not. I think the most important thing is that on the turn, if you're pretty sure you have the best hand, then you must not be afraid to give the button a 60-shot. If you have confidence in your hand reading ability (which was good in this situation), then make sure you act appropriately based on that read.


Good luck.

Do not fold big pairs in huge pots. SHOW THEM DOWN unless Mother Theresa is betting, then OFTEN show them down.


It sure looks like you are beat on the turn so do not raise. But if you are SURE you have the best hand, then do the following exercise: notice that with 4 opponents who are going to call that you should RAISE so long as you will win 1 time in 5. Now with that board and presuming your KK is "best" right now, pick the deck with any 4 other hands such that altogether they have 30 outs amongst them (leaving you with 12 outs). While I imagine you CAN contrive of such an example it sure looks like a pretty unlikely combination. Now put more reasonable cards in their hands (such as 2 flush draws) and you will find that altogether then have less than 20 outs making you an odds-on favorite getting 4:1 for your money.


EV doesn't get better than that.


If you are reasonably sure you have the best hand then RAISE. I would venture to guess that you should raise if you have the "best" hand as little as about 30% of the time.


As Stonewall Jackson once never said: "Don't take council in your fears, take council in your EV".


- Louie

After the flop you have invested only an additional $20 by leading out (here I agree with previous posts that suggest a check-call or check raise). By the time it gets back to you its been 3-bet and you're pretty much guarnteed 6 way action on the turn. Assuming you are going to get players to drop by capping it in this type of game is wishful thinking at best. Your Kings are a big dog to take down the pot. A fold here saves you the additional $200 (5 Big Bets or 5 good hours worth of work for a solid player) that you went on to lose.


Although your reads appeared to be correct and hindsight put you in the lead at the turn, 6 way action and two more bets to me is not were I want to invest my money.

Folding here would be a terrible mistake. Flat calling the 3 bet from the guy on the right might not be bad. It will likely get capped anyway by someone anyone with a draw and if not then you will likely get a bet on the turn from the guy on your right in which case you can raise him again and try to drive some players out. The pot is already huge at this point so your goal is to try and win the pot. You would have still lost this hand since the QJ played poorly enough that he would not have layed down to the raise on the turn. Unless you knew the guy with the QJ to grossly overplay his hands you will usually be beat by 2 pair or a set when you get raised on the turn like that. You obviously have an overpair. It would usually be a mistake to 3 bet on the turn here with KK, but you should call down, even when the J pairs on the river cuz he could have had two pair that's been counterfeited. How sure are you about your "read". You happened to have the best hand this time, but a lot of the time you will be be up against a bigger hand. If you are sure you have the best hand then by all means put as much money as you possibly can. You can getting great value on your raises with less than 12 outs against you.

"Turn is 9s. ... Checked to me, I bet, BTN raises, ... I KNOW in my gut that I have the best hand,..."


We could narrow your question by adding some more know to KNOW, as in, let's say we had seen the other hands. Then I'd raise the turn for sure, not just because I have the best hand, but also because I could fold if someone draws out.


In real life, it's a combo a TWO degress of certainty that would guide my turn decision; one, that I have the best hand, two, that I can laydown if beaten on the river. On your hand, I could fold if the flush comes, but I'd be paying off in all other cases. Any of the flush draws could have a pair with their flush given them a 'hidden' five outs. Plus I'd have to pay off any rivered straight. These added concerns would make me lean toward not reraising on the turn.


Another factor that favors not reraising the turn, and I'm not questioning your gut feeling here, but it's a simple truth that the button could have a set or two pair (J-9 or 4-5) already, and a reraise on the turn opens the betting for him to four-bet. A disaster, holding what might be a two-outter that has to payoff.


The guy with QJ made one heckuva raise on the turn. I can't imagine that he really thought he had the best hand, which means he probably wasn't thinking much at that moment. Big pot, top pair, let's jam it up no matter what. Those types of players might do the same with a big draw and a pair, and might follow through by betting the river on sheer momentum after a miss, so I'd definitely payoff on the river even after the top card pairs.


Tommy

This is not stud. 6-way action is no reason to abandon your big pair in holdem. There realistically just aren't that many hands the opponents can have and when there are 6 of them then SURELY they have each other's cards, such as two players with flush draws and two players with a Jack. Would you prefer one of the flush draws and one of the Jacks to fold to get it down to just 4 opponents? The difference between these two players CALLING for their combined 2 outs and drawing for free is MUCH greater than the difference between them calling and folding.


Yes, you can usually contrive some specific combination of hands the opponent's can have that make you a serious underdog but as I suggest its rarely realistic. Even Brunson's contrived example where Hero with AK and the best hand needed an AK32 to win was a bad example since hero had 13 outs against 5 opponents and would have made money by raising.


"Your Kings are a big dog to take down the pot." Please show some specific evidence of this. And even if you DO the size of the pot suggest that you must be a HUGE underdog before folding is correct.


- Louie

"The guy with QJ made one heckuva raise on the turn." How often will the obvious over-pair have to throw the best hand away before this "heckuva" lousy raise becomes a "heckuva" brilliant raise? Not often. Considering the size of the pot and the discussion above about KK folding, I'd have to conclude this was a GREAT raise ..err.. "great" in the sense that raising's EV was much greater than calling's EV.


I like your discussion about how easy it is to play the river. Your absolute uncertainty on the next round (part of your implied odds) will affect whether or not you CALL.


But when choosing between calling and raising what's important is not whether the river is easy or not its how your turn decision affects the uncertainty of the river play; does it make it easiER or hardER. So if there is NO difference in the difficulty of your decision whether you call or raise, then the river-decision criteria should not affect your call/raise turn decision. If you believe that calling will invite some optimal bluffs but raising will prevent ALL bluffs on the river then give a little weight to raising. If raising will prevent all but the optimal bluffs but calling will induce lots of bluffs on the river (that you intend to call) then give some weight to calling.


- Louie

Louie:


Some feedback on your comments:


"This is not stud".


I can't imagine how this can be used as an argument to go up against 6 other players while facing calling two more bets cold. Conventional wisdom supports more chasing in stud than in hold em due in part to the community cards and extra betting. Your comment seems to indicate that because this is hold-em rather than stud you should be more inclined to chase. This clearly goes against conventional wisdom.


"...There realistically just aren't that many hands the opponents can have and when there are 6 of them then SURELY they have each other's cards, such as two players with flush draws and two players with a Jack."


The post indicated there were several players seeing 80% of the flops. I do not argue that fact there aren't a tremendous amount of hands the put Kings in trouble with that flop, but the fact is that there a 6 hands out there all willing to put in two, three and even four bets. Amongst the other 5 hands, the CUMULATIVE odds, under known conditions, that your Kings are beat by AT LEAST one other hand, are substantial. Whether its Aces, two pair, or a set, I can't imagine that if one could randomly isolate similar game conditions and known facts, you would not find at least one other hand that beat Kings in this situation. Hence my position: I am most likely behind at least one or possible two hands in this situation. Remember, I am discounting somewhat the "reads" and "maybe's" that have been discussed. The pure and simple fact is that I am more than likely drawing to the two other Kings to make winner, and that's assuming the other card is not a heart or possible straight maker.


"And even if you DO the size of the pot suggest that you must be a HUGE underdog before folding is correct."


There are 12 BB's in the pot when its 3 bet to our hero. At this point it's 6 to 1 on a call here. I believe, still assuming you will win if you hit your set, you are much worse than a 6 to 1 dog to hit that other King.


"The difference between these two players CALLING for their combined 2 outs and drawing for free is MUCH greater than the difference between them calling and folding"


If in this situation, I would naturally assume there are some draws amonst the other players in the hand...HOWEVER, lets remember, that much of what has been shared was knowledge after the fact. The simple facts are that under known conditions at the time of the 3-bet, believing, or "reading", that everyone was on draws or a Jack is simply Fuzzy logic. Give me this same situation a thousand times and I'll bet that Kings are in second place or worse over 2/3 of the time. As you will agree, its hard to give specific evidence because of all the variables involved. I leave it to the forum to picuture this situation in middle limit games they are accustom to, and decide if the 2/3 guess is in the ball park.


Respectfully,


Cigar Man

Louie,


Me: "The guy with QJ made one heckuva raise on the turn."


You: "How often will the obvious over-pair have to throw the best hand away before this "heckuva" lousy raise becomes a "heckuva" brilliant raise? Not often. Considering the size of the pot and the discussion above about KK folding, I'd have to conclude this was a GREAT raise ..err.. "great" in the sense that raising's EV was much greater than calling's EV."


I thought the popular conclusion was that playing on with the KK was a clear choice, but I'm not looking back to check. Either way, you sure are right about how easy it is to underrate the turn raise by QJ, and hyperactive plays in general. Good going.


To cover my ass I'm going to define "heckuva raise" as, "a raise I wouldn't even think of making but should." :-)


"But when choosing between calling and raising what's important is not whether the river is easy or not its how your turn decision affects the uncertainty of the river play; does it make it easiER or hardER. So if there is NO difference in the difficulty of your decision whether you call or raise, then the river-decision criteria should not affect your call/raise turn decision. If you believe that calling will invite some optimal bluffs but raising will prevent ALL bluffs on the river then give a little weight to raising. If raising will prevent all but the optimal bluffs but calling will induce lots of bluffs on the river (that you intend to call) then give some weight to calling."


I copied and pasted this as somewhat of a public service after reading it a couple times because it's just brilliant Louie, truly.


Tommy

I am curious what HPFAP's is. Is this a book, web page or what.


If someone would, please email me with the answer. djmc@austin.rr.com.


Thanks,


Daniel J.

Most of my comments were principly targeted against the notion that KK was in serious dodo even if it is the "best" hand (along with the notion that perhaps you should "narrow the field"). You seem to have assumed my comments were about when KK was not the best hand.


6 hands drawing to beat your "best" one pair in stud is a LOT WORSE than 6 hands drawing in Holdem, since like I suggest in holdem they generally have each other's cards. I wasn't suggesting you should be more inclined to CHASE in holdem than in stud.


MAYBE there is one flush draw, one pair of Jacks, one pair of 5s, one pair of 4s, and one straight draw and nobody has the other guy's kicker or K. But that leaves the 6th player over-lapping somewhere. Much more likely they overlap more significantly, such as 2 flush draws and 2 pair of Jacks.


So, you assume KK is drawing to 2 cards 2/3 of the time and I'll assume KK should win half the time when its good. So KK holds up a total of 1/6th of the time and redraws 1/22*2/3 1/33 of the time, better than 5:1 against. Plenty enough to draw in this spot getting "6:1", especially since when hero is faced with a double bet on the flop I count 23sb or hero is getting 11:1, not 6:1. And I disagree with your 2/3rd estimate, which would apply for more passive games.


Anyway, I assert that routinely folding big pairs at the first sign of trouble is a disaster in big pots. You seem to disagree.


- Louie

Do me a favor and try to rephrase it so it makes sense WITHOUT having to read it a few times.


BTW, when I try to slam dunk you with a nasty response you are not allowed to respond with one with difusing harmony. That would be like the best way to respond to an aggressive player at the table is to just call; NOW what's he going to do; or the best way to respond to an aggressive trap yes/no question is to not answer.


- Louie

Louie,


"BTW, when I try to slam dunk you with a nasty response you are not allowed to respond with one with difusing harmony."


Oh, well, sorry 'bout that. Maybe it's a 2+2 phenomenon that I see us all as on the same team. The only way you can slam dunk me is during practice, so it doesn't really count. And even though one might consider it a victory of sorts to best a teammate during practice, the wise player sees a harmonious union as the better long-range approach, and grants the dunker his needed glory.


:-)


Tommy

probably should not use name here since I am not sure, but I think it was in one of Tom McEvoy's books.....


that in a real loose game where lots of players are seeing the flop, it may not be good to raise before the flop besause no one will fold and you will have built pot odds for draws against you after the flop.


not from the book...such as a raise in this situation "triggers" the schooling effect.


also it seems to me that too many of other posts have assumed that KK is still best hand after the flop.

.. and it is so hard to be a conservative those few times when one is wrong. Not that that would even stop me, but its hard.