River Bluff-Raise at Party 3/6: Fool-hardy?

[The Bear]

Hey everyone,

I've been trying to open up my game a little lately (increased aggressiveness, more bluff-raises and semi-bluff raises). In general, I think these plays are unnecessary and often costly at LL, but adding them in the right place can jack up the EV a bit. Anyway, the following hand details something that I never do: the river bluff-raise.

Don't know anything about any players. I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif in LMP. EMP open-raises, MP cold calls, I 3-bet, CO 4-bets, button calls 4 cold, everyone calls. 5-handed to the flop for 20 SB's.


Flop: T /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to CO, who bets. We all come along to the turn. Pot is 12 BB.


Turn: [T /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif] J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Sweet, now I've got a 3-outer to the nuts w/ overcards. It checks around. Hmmmm.


River: [T /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif] 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Damn, I missed. "Oh well, it's been fun, I'm done with the hand." It checks around to the CO, who bets. Two folds, the third guy starts thinking.

Now I'm like: "[censored], what if this folds around to me? Can I fold in a pot this big?" The CO's play is as consistent (maybe more consistent) w/ AK as it is with an overpair. And since this is Party 3/6, the guy could really have anything.

Anyway, it folds around to me, and I decide that he can't call a raise w/ AK and I might be able to steal this 13 BB pot. I summon up some courage and raise.

Good, great, bad, awful, neutral?
Also, what do you think of it at a higher limit, say 15-30?

Thanks in advance.

[J.R.]

I don't think AK bets on the river here, as a pair really can't fold given the pot size, so there is little bluff value and he checked the turn, announcing weakness and inviting any pair to bet/call on the river.

I think he has a weakly played overpair that was scared of the conected board on the turn and hope to induce a lesser hand to call on the river or avoid a turn check-raise if he is beat.

AK would fold to the river raise, but I don't think AK bets the river, and I don't think an overpair folds here as you wouldn't check twice with a 9. I can't see him folding a better or equal hand here, so I make a crying/loose call.

Betting the river would have been a better play, IMO, as AK might fold but I think is unlikely to bet.

Challenging post though, I'm interested in others opinions because I am running bad/playing poorly, so my creativity is subdued and my feel is off.

[tj00]

CO's play also looks like AA,KK,QQ, but was afraid of the one card straight on the turn. Risking 2 BBs to win 13, do you think you opponent will fold more than 1 time in about 6?

[GuyOnTilt]

Depends on the quality of the CO. I would never fold any pair to your raise here, because it looks like a bluff-raise. If you were in the blinds or EP, I'd be more inclined to fold a mediocre pair here, but given the size of the pot, the only thing you're going to get to fold after checking the flop, turn, and river is a no-pair hand.

I don't like the raise at all.

[ajizzle]

At 3/6, I think that the bluff-raise on the river can be a good and +EV play AGAINST THE CORRECT OPPONENT. It doesn't hurt to throw one out to test the waters if he is unknown, but if he has been known to make big lay downs on the turn or river, then by all means GO FOR IT.

At 15-30, you lay this down on the flop, OR bet out from early position. There are two many draws out to be check/calling, and a bet will see where you stand (overpairs will raise, as well as good flush draws and open ended straight draws most of the time). You could very easily be drawing to three outs with your AK, so it is best to let it go. With KQ however, you check/call, because you could have as many as ten outs, and if you hit your pair, you are less likely to be against 2 pair. This is a concept from HPFAP.

Good Luck.

[GuyOnTilt]

With KQ however, you check/call, because you could have as many as ten outs...

There's no gutshot on the flop for KQ, so I'm not sure where you're getting 10 outs...I think KQ should have an easy fold on the flop given the preflop action. He has no straight draw, and there's a good chance that you're drawing dead to your single pair outs.

[J.R.]

The Bear:

Anyway, it folds around to me, and I decide that he can't call a raise w/ AK and I might be able to steal this 13 BB pot. I summon up some courage and raise.

GuyOnTilt

If you were in the blinds or EP, I'd be more inclined to fold a mediocre pair here, but given the size of the pot, the only thing you're going to get to fold after checking the flop, turn, and river is a no-pair hand.


I agree that The Bear's opponent in this hand isn't likely fold a pair, but what if his opponent holds AK, which I think was the point of The Bear's post. I don't think his opponent's play is consistent with AK, and don't think his opponent both holds AK and folds AK enough to make this raise profitable.

If his opponent holds AK, he is risking nothing to win half the pot (since he alrady wins half in a chop and gets back his river raise when AK calls and they chop). But I can't see a pair folding to this raise, so how often is his opponent's hand a pair and how often is it AK?

His opponent capped preflop, bet the flop and then checked the turn when the gutshot came in yet still bet the river, which I read as a scared overpair. Is this line of play consistent with AK enough to make this play profitable?

[The Bear]

J.R.,

You're right about GoT's post; I wasn't looking for him to fold a pair or an overpair. I was very specifically hoping that he had AK and I could put him off of it. I was also aware that my raise looked like a bluff-raise. In fact, the moment I pulled the trigger I regretted it, since it was so obvious.

Overall, I think it was a bad idea because what I was doing was so clear, which essentially guaranteed a call, even from AK. That fact alone should have driven my decision to fold. And though I agree with much of what was been posted in responses (eg. he most likely has an overpair), I'm still not convinced that he's over 5 times more likely to have one.

Thanks for the feedback. I'll refrain from pulling these ill-thought moves in the future.

[GuyOnTilt]

I think that the chances that his opponent holds AK, would bet AK, and will fold AK are extremely slim. Since I don't think he would fold any pair given the action, I don't think this is a profitable raise.