NL Satellite Situation

[PlayerA]

I'm in the 36+3 NL Satellite on Stars. It's bubble time with 10 players and 9 get a seat. I have a shortish stack where I am far from guaranteed to fold into the money. Something along the lines of T4000 where the shorties were on the order of T3000.

I am UTG+1 and I get AA. There was bully at our table. He was on the button. If I limp, I'm about 95% sure that he will raise (probably put me in) with about any 2 cards. I'm also fairly sure that the blinds will fold to his move. If I move in, he will fold (unless he has a hand (which is ok too (esp. Ax))). What do you do?

I moved in and took the blinds and antes.

[ohkanada]

I would raise all-in, but you don't mention the blinds so who knows. No reason to get sneaky and try to limp here.

Ken Poklitar

[PlayerA]

I think the blinds were 400/800. Antes were 25 or 50.

The main thing about the bully is that he was predictable. He almost always popped a limper. He wasn't an idiot and would happily fold to counter-heat if he didn't have anything.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

This is easy. You don't want to double up but risk elimination 15-20% of the time here. You say "shorties", as in plural, who have less than you. You can raise all-in here and probably take the blinds, buying you another round. The blinds and antes are high that the short stacks have at most 2 orbits to win something. Take the blinds, and be prepared to fold anything but AA unless both of the short stacks double up and you are the short stack.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Copernicus]

How aware of the bully is the rest of the table, and how narrow is the bully's gap?

If there is a small to intermediate raise that still gives you hope of the bully coming over the top, but also would eliminate almost all of the stragglers who fear the bully, I would give that a shot.

If there isnt such a bet, I would normally be content to take the blinds and not risk slowplaying AA, but when you are that sure that you are going to get a bet from the bully I wouldnt consider it sloplaying, but an aggressive check-raise strategy that appears very likely to succeed.

Looking at it from an EV perspective, raising all-in is going to give you an EV of about 2500, assuming you get a caller 1/3 of the time and beat him 85% of the time. It could be as low as the 1400 or so in the pot if you get no callers.

The worst but reasonably likely case on the other end is that you limp, get 3 callers, and no raises. Assume when that happens that you are going to lose 30% of the time and win 70%, and that you cant get any more bets out of them when you win, but dont have to risk any more when you lose.

This "worst case" EV (assuming that there is one cold caller in addition to the 2 blinds) is .7*2600 - .3*800=1580, which is still better than stealing the blinds, and doesnt risk your entire stack. The best case is that you limp, everyone else folds and the bully comes over the top, which beats the all-in scenario top EV as long as he is no better than a random 15% to beat you, and that he comes in more than 1/3 of the time, which sounds like a lock given your 95% estimate.

So it looks to me like limping gives a higher worst to best range than going all in at both ends, and the scenarios are pretty reasonable. The higher EV plus the leverage that a not unlikely chance of doubling up leads me to limp here, but I would be very cautious after the flop if all the money doesnt get in PF.

[Whitey]

I agree that limping is the EV play as stated by Copernicus but the fact this is a satellite makes it the incorrect play IMO.
Your only consideration is to make the next place and get the seat so you have to go all-in or fold.

If you can guaruntee your place by folding (i.e your stack can safely see you through due to the fact there a many stacks below yours) then this is the correct play here.

If you are close to the shortest stack (as stated) then I think you have to go all-in.

the main consideration IMO is that you dont want to risk getting a bad beat here.So what if your oppenent raises you with 7-2o then decides to call your all-in re-raise as he can afford it,you bust out and say "how can he call with that!!" I say how can you trap at this stage.

[Copernicus]

doh!

I got too involved in the details and forgot the whole premise. Whitey is right on here...go all in and take the blinds. If youre lucky enough to get a caller from one of the small blinds youve probably won your seat, and if you dont get any callers you are in much better position to survive.

[PlayerA]

I did survive. Eventually, I got blinded down to T3000 again and all shorties were about even with me. I got JJ in the same position. I moved in and got called by KQo in SB (who was gambling a little (although he could afford it)). My hand held and I was finally able to coast.

I think I did the right thing with AA. However, it would've nice to double up then so that I could avoid the JJ coin flip.

I've experimented on twodimes. It looks like AA fears medium SCs the most (only considering heads up situations). Is this right?

[ZeeJustin]

Easy shove IMO. You want to play very very ti ght in this situation, and even with AA, you should be happy with just stealing the blinds and antes. At this point in the tourney, the larger stacks are generally eager to push around the smaller stacks, and call their all-ins in an attempt to get the tourney over with, so you shouldn't have to wait long.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I've experimented on twodimes. It looks like AA fears medium SCs the most (only considering heads up situations). Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=307838&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&vc=1)

[PlayerA]

This situation came up again last night in the 36+3 on Stars. Exact same as before. A player raises. Another player starts to really think. The raiser says "KK". This time several players started ripping this guy a new a-hole for being a cheater (rule 14 is pretty clear). Anyhow, the
thinker calls and shows q9s and hits a flush (and yes the raiser had KK). The raiser was crippled and busted on the bubble.

Oops, I put this in the wrong thread. LOL. Guess there is no way to delete my own post...