Is this not really a mistake?

A new concept has been offered to me that has literally left me worried that I don't have a clue about how to play limit poker.


It was presented on the internet forum and I would like to hear from some others on this.


The idea is that cold-calling early position raisers with hands like QTo and KQo is not a very big mistake. Yes, it is is mistake, but I'm told they are not giving up very much and they can even make it up later if they play a better post-flop game than the raiser. I wonder. If I call a raise with KJo against AK and we both flop a K, how will I outplay my opponent exactly?


I saw a post by Louie Landale (general theory forum "Image" thread) which seemed to imply that this WAS a big mistake, and that it was the kind of mistake you might be able to induce with proper image projection, as if playing against someone who would make such a mistake was quite profitable.


I'm not talking about calling two bets cold on the button after four people have come in. I'm talking about games where the pot on the flop is usually three handed, and being more than four handed is unusual. In these games, I believe it is suicide to call raises with trap hands like QTs or KTo, even with position.


So which is it? A big mistake or a slight mistake that is easily

overcome by good post-flop play?


Take this example. You open raise with AA, the button calls and the big blind calls. Flop comes T high. Bet, button raises, blind folds, you three bet, button calls. You bet the turn and the button calls. The river comes a J and you check -call, losing to JT.


Did the button make a marginal mistake, a huge mistake, or no mistake?


natedogg

Calling raises with these hands is a huge mistake, but let's let others think otherwise /images/smile.gif


On your example, The JT got a lucky save on the river. More often they will flop no pair, or not improve to more than a pair when they do. Its a long, uphill climb to beat a big pair with any two undercards.


KJS

Right. There's a lot you could discuss about the topic in general, but the times when the raiser happens to have a big overpair to your cards is one of the key factors that makes these cold calls very costly. If you knew the raiser just had two big cards, but not a pair, it would be a much smaller mistake, and a call could even be correct. But you don't know that, so...

Just found the thread you were talking about. Just to clarify, it's clearly not as *much* of a mistake if it involves calling someone's middle position raise (versus his early raise). Now the raiser is less likley to have a big pair. But unless you have reason to believe he's loosened up quite a bit and you decide to reraise with something like KQ or AJ (e.g., when he's open-raising from the latest middle position), then it's still a clear mistake to be calling with hands like QT etc. I'm not sure just how big the cost difference is between the two mistakes.

Everyone agrees that these plays are "mistakes." So, does it really matter to what degree? I mean, we're sitting there with our Q-10 and a choice. Make a mistake, or not. Okay, what the heck, this time I think I'll go ahead and make a mistake because maybe just maybe it's not a real bad mistake. Huh? If it were proven that these mistakes are less severe than you thought, would you then start calling with these hands? I doubt it. So the whole question of degree is irrelevant.


Tommy

Try this. You raise UTG with AcKd knowing everybody but the button is going to fold. The button is a bone head and will play every hand. Your fairy god-father, this once, will let you put any two cards into the button's hand you like.


Which two cards are you going to give him? Go ahead and run a heads-up hot-and-cold simulator to figure out which hands do the absolute WORST against AK. No surprise, all the worst hands contain a stiff A or K. 72 does better than KQ.


- Louie

I think how much of a mistake is VERY relevant. If its "obviously" wrong yet only costs pennies/hour then it may very well be worth doing just for image purposes. In fact, these are the best image situations.


If you know how "bad" it is you'd have a reasonable idea of how loose the original raiser needs to be before you can start poping him back. If its a "disaster" to play KQ against a group 1 hand then you probably know its a bad idea against a group 1 or 2 raiser. But if it costs only pennies then its probably profitable against these additional hands.


Most important, you can correlate the "badness" of the situation with the situation to develope some guiding principle to help you solve other problems. Such as if you know KQ is a disaster against a solid hand then you are much less likely to play it in early position when you don't know whether such a hand is out; but if its only cost pennies then why worry about it early?


- Louie

He he. I have no intention of making this mistake myself. My question is more about whether or not I'm really profiting from this mistake as much as I thought. Some good players have suggested that these kinds of mistakes made by my opponents don't necessarily cost them very much.


I used to think these mistakes were really, really big. I felt that if I could get my opponents to call my raises with KJ and the like, I would be playing in enormously profitable situations.


Others have said that just isn't so.


My concern is actually beyond this question. If cold-calling my raise with QJ is not that big of a mistake, then WHAT ARE the big mistakes I'm looking for to profit from?


natedogg

Yes, its a huge mistake.

i would have to say i make most of my money not when they call my pre-flop raises, but after the flop when we flop the same pair and they:


1) play way too aggressively with no kicker


2) and pay me off all the way even though they are 100% sure I have them outkicked (the rare ones may fold the river after drawing to their 3-outs).


its the counterintuitive nature of the game, but the player with 2nd pair is making less of a mistake looking for his 5 outs.


many of the players in my game are just silly.. here is a typical example...


I raise UTG w A-K,


i get 3 callers...


FLOP:


A-7-4 rainbow.


bb check, I bet, call, raise, bb fold, I call, call.


TURN:


A-7-4--9


I check, check, bet, i raise, call, call.


RIVER:


A-7-4--9--J


I bet, fold, call.


I show, late flashes A-8o and mucks.


very common chain of events in my games.

Good point. This issue was discussed in sklanskys Getting the Best of It in discussing loose games. You do better on your very strong hands in these games since your opponents call of your raise is a bigger mistake when you have an overpair. If you knew your opponent does not have a big pair then it is probably OK to call. Maybe the best way to do that is to get a vision of what cards your opponent has and act on that, as proposed by a recent holdem book. :-)


pat

Louie,


Have you ever wished they had an "unpost" button here? I sure did, right after I posted the word "irrelevant."


"I think how much of a mistake is VERY relevant."


You're right, of course, for all the reasons you gave. I've even posted multiple times that I wished I knew exactly which preflop plays were nearly break-even plays in order to use them specifically for variance.


What I had in mind was something more like opening a chess game with pawn to rook four. The degree of error is not important to someone who would never make that move.


Tommy

"If cold-calling my raise with QJ is not that big of a mistake, then WHAT ARE the big mistakes I'm looking for to profit from?"


Let's say you have AQ and a guy calls behind you with Q-J. You both miss the flop. Who is ahead now? Which hand/position would you rather have?


Now put him in the small blind, with you behind him. Suddenly the AQ looms much larger.


The AQ vs QJ thing looks like a big mistake on the part of the QJ when a Q flops and he pays off all the way. But I think positional considerations do a great deal to balance out this rare occurance. Any time two big cards face spunky players from behind, their value is eroded by all those times they get mucked on the flop or turn, where, if position were reversed, the AQ would win the pot.


Nate, I think you bring up a great point/problem here that possibility stems from the alluring paint-by-numbers S&M hand rankings. I recall thinking how easy it was going to be for me to mop up by having the best starting hand so much more often than my opponent. If he be foolish enough to call my mid-position AK's and AQ's with their AJ's and A-10's, I'd eat 'em alive!


Well, it just ain't that simple. Perhaps Jesus had hold'em in mind when he said, "The first shall be last and the last shall be first."


Tommy

Good point, though might I suggest quoting a secondary source (e.g. a Bob Dylan)in the future. I personally try to avoid all mention of the All Mighty around the poker table as most contexts in which I am tempted to do so would cause the citation to be of such negativity as to possibly get me smote right there on the spot!

"If he be foolish enough to call my mid-position AK's and AQ's with their AJ's and A-10's, I'd eat 'em alive!"


You should mop up. If you're not there may be some other flaws in your game, especially your play on the flop and beyond. In HPFAP we talk about going for a check raise with some of your better hands on fourth street. Well, these are precisely those hands. Now the guy with the AJ will tend to make the minimum from you when he has the best hand, but you will frequently make the maximum from him when you have the best hand. This is just one example. You may want to example your play from the flop on.

"Good point, though might I suggest quoting a secondary source (e.g. a Bob Dylan)in the future."


Are you suggesting that I quote a REAL deity? :-)

at least you didn't title your post "Jesus Saves 'Bets'"

I think the main reason why the degree of a mistake matters is for game selection purposes. If I can choose between two games, the severity of the mistakes that I know the players in each one routinely make is a big factor.

There's a new line in a Bob Dylan song off of "Mississippi".


"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way"


Man...that's a line for the table if I've ever heard one from the master.


Speaking of which...go to his website at bobdylan.com and look at the WMA preview for his new album...it's him at a poker table playing 5 card draw.


RB