Hand Reading

Here's a fun one from years ago in a 10/20 holdem game.


I raise UTG with AA, UTG2 3-bets (a SURE premium hand), MP1, MP2, and MP3 call (each could have KJ but not 66!!??), button calls, BB calls, and I call hehehe. 7 players take 3-bets before the flop which is rare for this game.


Flop is Q75-2flush. BB checks, I bet, UTG2 raises (but is not real happy about it), all three MPs call (nice pun, eh?), button and BB fold, and I call hehehe. 5 take the turn.


Turn is J. I bet, UTG2 raises (but really doesn't like it), the MPs all call and they don't like it either, and its up to me... after a 3 second eternity I make the "spectacular" 3-bet and they all call and UTG2 says to me "Aces, eh?".


River is a perfect 5 pairing the board and missing the flush. I bet, UTG2 calls and all 3 MPs call, the last after about 10 seconds.


Displaying a lot more confidence then I felt I turned over my Aces and put the $1 toke on them. After 10 seconds of mumblings and grumblings and a couple complimentary "Oooooo"s, everybody else folds.


Yes, I figured the MPs are unlikely to have made much with the flop and must have had a Q or a flush draw; but as it turns out they all must have had a Q. Goes to show you the dangers of jumping raises with trouble hands like that.


- Louie


PS. The mistake I made was trying to narrow the field by betting into UTG2 twice since if I was right about UTG2 and the MPs, they were collectively drawing to maybe 3 cards altogether and could EASILY have been drawing to the single K left in the deck. Why would I want anybody to fold? Anyway, it worked out pretty well.

Interesting hand Louie. I am wondering how different the outcome would have been had you capped the betting preflop. I guess you would still win but maybe a larger pot,who knows?

No. I think UTG2 would get the message and may not raise at all and would certainly not raise me twice. Flat calling, hehehe, convinces him and other's I don't have the big pair.


And ... flat calling helps support all the other hands with which I would flat call.


- Louie

"all three MPs call (nice pun, eh?)"


...


"and I call hehehe"


...


"Aces, eh?"

Louie,


Two questions:


Why would the MPs cold call three bets before the flop with KJ but not 66? Almost anybody I played with who would call with KJ would also call with 66. The 66 is a "less bad" call against an early raiser and three better (in fact it is arguably correct for MP3 at least).


Do you really keep three year old notes?


Regards,


Rick

No. "eh?" is easier to type then "don't you-uns think?"

Well there ARE players who have some notion of hand ranking and "know" KJ is a better hand than 66 and therefore play it more often. And many of these have no idea how bad trouble hands are when against a better hand.


Yes, I would be MUCH more willing to jump a raise with 66 than KJ but not these guys.


My daughter is 2 years old. NEXT year I'll be keeping 3-year old notes. But actually I just remember some key hands from many years ago.


- Louie

What part of Canada are you from ? What are the games like ?


- Louie

Why not cap with more hands preflop when you are the original raiser and there is multiway action. Given that you have 7 way action and your raising standards up front are pretty tight, there are many hands other than aces where you will have +EV for capping before the flop. I think you should 3 bet the flop too. You were fortunate that the UTG player raised you again on the turn, but most players will not raise you again with KK or AQ when that J comes on the turn and you bet into him again.

Oh ya, and I think that 3 bet on the turn was a bit out of line too. With 3 MP's could calling 2 bets on the turn most of the time you are going to be beat. It was pure luck that they called you with AQ and KQ and not QJ or even a small set.

Not capping pre-flop DOES disguise my hand and sets up the future plays as described. Would I 4-bet with AQs or QQ? No, I wouldn't.


Calling the flop raise and betting the turn was pretty "risky" but its a betting form lots of players use (wait to see of the flush gets there, and UTG2 would recognize) and I felt he would likely raise which is what I thought I wanted.


On the turn QJ was the only hand I was conserned about since these guys aren't jumping raises with small pairs (?!!?). Even so, I was getting 4:1 or so for my raise and felt I was going to win lots more often than that, even if I would lose "most" of the time. Pairing the board made me feel LOTS better since I just outdrew the only hand I was conserned about.


- Louie