How to play an overpair when a medium pair flops

Jim Brier and I are on distinctly different sides of a debate in a Medium Stakes topic called "brierish type laydown? from me?"


So I'd like some thoughts about the general strategic ideas of how to play the flop and beyond when you've got an overpair and the flop has a medium pair, draw (either flush or straight), and a face card smaller than your overpair on it.


Here's the situation:


You've got a big pair (AA, KK, or QQ) and have raised pre-flop and gotten a few callers (3-5) but no re-raisers.


The flop is F, m, m


where F is a face card/Ten smaller than your pair


and


m is a medium card (let's say 5 through 9)


Example 1: If you hold KcKs, the flop could be Qd,6d,6h


Example 2: Or if you hold AA, the flop could be Tc,9s,9d


There's lots of action on the flop. Either you've bet from early postion and been raised and re-raised. Or, the flop has been bet and raised before it gets to you in late position.


In Example 1, you could be up against trip 6s, Queens-up, and a Diamond flush draw.


In Example 2, you could be up against trip 9s, Tens-up, and a straight draw.


Here's a few things I want to know (acknowledging that we have no knowledge of our opponents since this is hypothetical):


1. Statistically, how often do you have the best hand? Or more simply, how often has somebody flopped trips?


2. With several callers to your pre-flop raise, is there enough money in the pot to chase if you "suspect" (but aren't sure) one of the flop bettors/raisers has trips.


3. Is the size of the medium pair important? Is someone more likely to have trip 9s in Example 2 than trip 6s in Example 1?


4. Are you definitley seeing the turn card regardless of the flop action?


If I haven't adequately described the scenario, I think reading the Medium Stakes topic and then coming back here should clarify things.

These are tricky situations to deal with but I think the best way to look at situations such as this are to consider the players and their habits. There are players who will always (or almost always) raise trips on the flop, then there are those that will always (or almost always) just call then wait until thwe turn to raise. Of course these are the types of players that will be easiest to play against, but even they present a problem since there are other hands that they could play the same way. In my experience, players raising on the flop are usually less likely to have trips, but of course it depends on the situation. If the flop is something like T66 rainbow and the action goes bet, raise, and now somebody cold calls- you now have to be VERY concerned about a set.

There probably is a better chance against most players that two nines on the flop is more likely to hit somebody then say two 5's. There are a few more hands that people will play containing these slightly bigger cards. (loose players are more likely to play hands like A9o or T9o then hands like A5o or 56o, especially for a raise- even loose players have a little discretion sometimes)

As for seeing the turn card, you probably will often times if you think that you have a good enough chance to win the pot according to the odds you are getting. But if you were somehow 100% sure that your opponent has trips then you would want about 20-1 or so to see the turn card. You don't need the full 22.5-1 because you will be getting implied odds if you hit.

Some important considerations are the number of players in the pot and the fact that they reraised your raise on the flop after calling your raise before the flop. You're probably beat, and if you are, the pot odds don't justify calling many raises that are sure to come if someone has trips and another makes their flush or straight draw.

1. On a paired board, each opponent stands a 8.4% chance to have flopped trips. There is a 0.9% chance someone flopped full or quads. These odds are calculated from using all possible hands, so you should figure these odds to be somewhat lower the smaller the pair is, as hands containing that card become less likely to be played. For example, if you figure the only hands with a 5 to be played (by very loose standards) would be 35 45 56 57 A5 25s 58s 59s, the odds drop to 4.3%.


2. It depends on how sure you are that someone has trips and how large the pot is. Compare your pot odds to the odds that someone holds trips, and lower your pots odds according to how many bets you figure to call to get to the showdown. If your adjusted pot odds are better than the chance that someone has trips, you can continue playing, otherwise fold. However, you should really worry more about the texture of the board, the action so far, and your knowledge of the other players, rather than the size of the pot in this situation.


3. The size of the pair does matter somewhat, since the larger cards are in more playable hands. The difference between someone holding a 6 versus a 9 is probably less than 1%, but the difference between someone holding a 2 versus an ace is probably better than 5% (which really makes the trip aces about 3 times more likely to be out then the 2's, as the odds of someone holding either card were only 8.4% to start with). The way you can guage this for yourself is to simply count the number of playable hands containing each card, and then compare these two numbers.


4. No way. If there are no draws on the paired board, you are usually in trouble if there is much action to you, and should almost always fold against straightforward opponents. As an extreme example, I am almost always going to fold AA on a KKx rainbow flop if there is much action with at least 1 straightforward playing aggressor. This is mostly a matter of knowing how your opponents play a paired board when they hold trips, a draw, or have paired the other card. Many players won't bet but will come to life if there is action after them on the flop, while other players won't make a move until the turn, and still others (like me) will play it fast from the very start. It is fairly common for bad players to play the trips meekly on the flop, and then come to life on the turn, while they will play their draw or pair quite aggressively on the flop and then slow down on the turn. These opponents are ideal since you can play at them aggressively on the flop without fear, putting many bets in the pot when they are losing, but can often safely fold if they show aggression on the turn after having only paid 1 bet on the flop. If you don't know your opponents well, you can rely on the pot odds calculation from #2, but I rely more on my player knowledge than the pot odds in this situation.