committed to a showdown

[mike l.]

so 20-40 and im trying to be tight, nobody cares though and things are proceeding in their normal loose fish out so cal way. this is a live game btw. 8 handed.

i have Ah5h in the bb. okay guy openraises from cutoff, way too loose, pretty aggro chick makes it 3 in the sb, i call two cold, cutoff has a pained look and he calls, he, at least has been paying attention to my play, that's my optimistic read. she however could give a sheet, this is know.

flop for 3 is: Q53 rainbow. sb bets, i raise, cutoff folds, sb 3 bets, i call. i am, at this exact point completely committed to a showdown.

(turn is 2, she bets, i call. river is a buttugly K, she bets, i think forever, knowing i will call, and then i call.)

comments?

[mikelow]

I would have folded A5s for two bets. Once you gor for three bets with second pair (albeit with top kicker), you're committed. I'd wait for something better. On the river, what can you beat? Certainly no pocket pair, except for 44. AJ? Good luck!

[Diplomat]

Hi Mike,

Even though they are goofs, I think this is a pretty easy fold pre-flop.

-Diplomat

[hutz]

I wouldn't have seen the flop, but then I've never played in Cali.

[PokerPrince]

There shouldn't be a decision to make postflop cause those rags should be in the muck pile preflop.

PokerPrince

[mike l.]

"I would have folded A5s for two bets."

i swear to gosh i do about 95% of the time. just this once i decided to make a stand. a year ago that would not have been the case, i wouldve played it much more often.

"On the river, what can you beat? Certainly no pocket pair, except for 44. AJ?"

i thought i explained she is both LOOSE and AGGRESSIVE. so there are plenty more hands i could beat. at least that's the way i saw it.

something interesting (and really i think this is a critical point and i think ive made significant money with this line of thought) about the river i think:

when someone bets (even a pretty aggro player) that board on the river after pushing all hand and clearly getting called down it's sort of easy to reduce their hand to either something really good like a big pocket pair, a set, or a Q or K w/ good kicker, or very very little like little pair, A high, or even less. either a very strong hand or basically a bluff. nothing in between.

specifically when i talk about the in between im excluding value bets w/ things like JJ, TT, 99, and even things like Q9--those are the types of hands, as well as weaker hands like 77, 66, etc, which this let's say average 20-40 player will want to showdown, not bet for value or as a bluff. they will check-call w/ them, and assume that it will get checked down most of the time. there they are on the river, they have a hand of some value, they dont read the forum here so they dont think it's an easy value bet w/ 77 or something like most of us do, the pot is big, they dont trust the guy calling them down, nor do they want to lose anymore on a hand that is just so-so. so you can really narrow down what someone has. so the question on the river when they bet is whether they will fold enough better hands if you raise the river to make it worth it, or if calling down is enough.

so here's the application of the principle: in this case i was very worried as i called the river that she was going to show 66 and i was going to feel very foolish for not raising the river. then i thought about it and realised that was a hand she would more likely check, and that if she had went that far with it and i raised she would likely call. so i held my breath and called...

results later.

[Vehn]

I prefer to "make my stands" heads up rather than 3 way.

[Clarkmeister]

I agree, that's why I prefer a cap to a coldcall in this spot.

[mike l.]

"I agree, that's why I prefer a cap to a coldcall in this spot."

and give away the leverage of having the loose sb autobet into me on the flop (after all she did 3 bet preflop)? forget it!

[Clarkmeister]

"I wouldn't have seen the flop"

Of course you wouldn't have. This isn't one of the 3 hands that you consider flop-worthy. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ulysses]

I agree w/ your line of thinking re: this bet usually meaning something very big or something very small. But I don't think that applies nearly as much w/ a real aggro who will just keep firing w/ something like 99.

[Kevin J]

"so 20-40 and im trying to be tight,..."

You should try harder.

[hutz]

I'll actually see the flop with six hands -- A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif, A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gif, A /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gif, A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif, A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif

See? I'm looser than you thought!

[Tommy Angelo]

"when someone bets (even a pretty aggro player) that board on the river after pushing all hand and clearly getting called down it's sort of easy to reduce their hand to ... either a very strong hand or basically a bluff. nothing in between."

Or she made one pair on the river.

Let's try another board. Give the agro JT, and make the board one overcard: K-x-x,x. Now a jack or ten comes on the river. The opponent was going to bet/bluff on momentum anyway, and here comes a jack or ten, a pair, giving the opponent a hand that might be best checked to induce a bluff or avoid a raise; a value check. But the momemtum is too much, so he bets anyway. And we call with our pocket nines or nut-no-pair or whatever, that was leading all the way, that was plenty to get the opponent to fold if only we had raised the turn, and then we look at the JT winner and think, wow, what just happened here?


Tommy

[andyfox]

I don't get any of it, Mike.

There's an aggressive player in front and a guy who can play behind. Why would you want to play A-5?

Then you let her take the initiative by not 4-betting the flop and by just calling the turn. If you're completely committed to a showdown, how about trying to dicate the terms of that showdown instead of letting her do so?

And why be completely committed to a showdown? I've never understood how a player can decide that their opponent must have such-and-such on the flop and not let the turn and river cards or subsequent action change their mind.

So I'm clueless here. And I'm not trying to be glib or sarcastic, I really don't understand any of it. Help me out.

BTW, hope your home is not near any of the fire trouble.

Regards,
Andy

[mike l.]

yeah i know what youre saying. actually im more on the giving side of that beat. most beats actually..

but back to the hand at hand: the river was a K so while it fit with some hands she may be pressing with it didnt stop me from thinking i may still be holding a pretty little winner.

[mike l.]

" But I don't think that applies nearly as much w/ a real aggro who will just keep firing w/ something like 99."

me neither. luckily that's not her. she's medium aggro, not cuckoo for cocoa puffs aggro.

[mike l.]

"So I'm clueless here. And I'm not trying to be glib or sarcastic, I really don't understand any of it. Help me out."

nothing more to say. but your post did help. here's how:

andy fox, i see you as a very good winning player. if i (we) are fooled or something then please speak up. but from your posts it's clear youve really got it together. it's clear you have a bit of a weak tight image (more on the tight than the weak), but you are aware of it and you rob them sometimes because you are aware of it. you beat the 30 and 40 at commerce long term. a decent amount of us simply cannot.

so when you say you dont get what it is i think im doing here w/ A5s in the bb when ive layed it all out clear as i can, the problem is not with you, it is with me. i can appreciate that.

btw, i won the hand (she held 44) and it caused a bit of a stir at the table, that's why i remembered it and posted it. i knew that i was playing too loosely preflop, but this was an exceptional hand and having position on an exceptionally generous (i stole this from tommy talking about ulysses a few weeks back) loose aggressive tipped it into the playable realm for me.

however after seeing you not get it, im rethinking it and finding more strength in just making the standard preflop muck and waiting for still better opps. rather than crawling around in the mud with the rest of them w/ a pair of 5s.

"BTW, hope your home is not near any of the fire trouble."

thanks for your concern. we're safe.

[Josh W]

mike -

I've read all the responses, and it seems like most of the heartburn from the audience is regarding the preflop play...

I think i agree with clark inasmuch as I'd cap here if there was a reasonable (>40%) chance of dropping UTG. He's been noticing your tightness, so it may work that often. If he's never raise-mucked before in your life, then I think I call (well, fold, but I prefer call over cap if UTG is stuck in there) for the reason you mention.

My other comment is to those who say that you should dictate the showdown on your terms, or cap the flop, or raise the turn, etc... the problem with this line of attack (especially when we know her hand) is that a raise on the turn will end up coming back to us threebet. And even though we give ourselves the "I'm getting to a showdown" peptalk after the flop falls, we may reconsider facing three bets on the turn with a pair of fives.

Maybe I'm just a football fan, hearing coaches saying "we gotta stick to our gameplan, play our game". But whenever I try to start playing my opponents game (uber aggression), my wheels start to fall off. I prefer to use my opponents weakness against them, and in this case, the best strategy would be to call down.

To those who say "well, gosh, when she shows me 99, I feel lousy, cuz a turn raise woulda won me the pot". Please. She put in 3 bets preflop with 44, and three bets on the flop when two overcards come. If she has 99, she's seeing a showdown. You can make your 5-out draw cheap, or you can make it expensive.

Oh, and mike, I really don't have too much of a problem with your preflop call, especially if your blinds are getting stolen a lot (it will make people think twice before the easy steal), as long as you promise not to lose more than $40 postflop when you flop the second best ace.

Thaz 'bout it.

Josh

[andyfox]

Thanks for the kinds words, Mike.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. I've won every year since I started to keep records. I've done this realizing that there are players who play better than I do. My style of play suits my personality. You once semi-jokingly described it as sit and wait until you flop a set. I've been playing a long time. I won at draw, I won at lowball, I win at hold 'em. I liked draw a lot more than lowball because, as someone once said to me, "You'd be a really good player if you had any gamble in you."

For every player I think plays better than I do, I find a lot more who play worse. So I beat the games.

I beat them by not, as you put it, crawling around in the mud, or at least only doing it where I have the best chance of coming out smelling like a rose. I think there are plenty of opportunities without crawling. One of my strengths, I think, is that, somewhat paradoxically, I recognize my weaknesses vis-a-vis the other players. Swim with the fishes, stay away from the sharks.

But I wasn't being entirely honest (with myself) when I said I didn't get it. You had a good read, in both a general and specific sense, and position on a player you'd love to have a good read and position on, so why not take advantage of this? That is, this may well have been a good spot for mike l. to "crawl." And there are players who you "know" are going to keep firing no matter what and that against whom one decides my hand has value, I'm going to call him/her down, period.

And of course we post the exceptional or difficult hands here and it may give the impression that Mike L. is always getting himself out on a limb or that Andy Fox is always folding an overpair on the flop.

Anyway, I always get excited when I see a mike l. post precisely because your style is so much different than mine. Let's get together whenever you next come north and have some time.

[mikelow]

He was really lucky, IMO.

Pocket fours is really the only hand he can beat.

[tpir90036]

not to be weird...but what a great exchange. i wish all of the posting on here was this constructive and informative. a lot of the stuff on 2+2 is great, don't get me wrong, but those two posts seriously brightened up my day for some reason. thank you...

[J_V]

Exactly...only against the bet it all aggro is this not a lot or nothing.

These aggros have really left me red at the table a few times. LOL... value betting 3-5o into the J-10-9-3-A. ANd when I mucked 22, the table had a few laughs at my expense.