NLHE tourney--raising w/ a big hand and whiffing

[Tyler Durden]

It's a common problem.
$20+2 multi on Party. 700 entrants, down to about 460 now. Average stack is T1500. I have T1800. Blinds are 25/50.

Folded to me in LMP with AcQc. I openraise to T200. Only the SB calls (table chip leader).

Flop is 8-5-4 rainbow. He checks, I bet the pot and he calls. Ruh roh!

Turn is a Jack. I check behind.

River is a Ten. He doesn't seem to be a good player. He checks to me. What now?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

How big is his chip lead? Would he call an all-in with 66? The more I look at this, the more I think he has Axs, though 66 is possible. I'd be tempted to push in here.

[Tyler Durden]

I started the hand with T1840, he started it with T2649.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You say you don't think he's a good player, so it's hard to put him on a hand. When he doesn't bet the turn, it would be then where I decide if I'm going to play or give up unless I hit my hand. The J is a good enough card for me to attack with when it hits.

[Copernicus]

I cant see Axs calling the flop bet with the chip lead. Even a strong kicker to the A isnt going to want to risk being an underdog to a pair. I dont think they will call an all-in, and though there is some risk of Ts and Js being a set, I think the chance of getting a small pair to fold outweighs it.

[PlayerA]

On the river, I would probably check since if you have the best hand, it will cost you nothing to take it down.

In what sense is your opponent not good? If he's weak, then a bluff may work. If he's an idiot, then there is a remote chance you can value bet here. However, an idiot will also call your all-in and show you A4o.

[Tyler Durden]

I moved all-in and he called with A8o so I was dropped like third period French.