Steal attempt leads to semi-bluff

Six handed game. Two very loose passive players, two tight (me and one other), two mediocre. It's a kill pot and the BB is the killer. I am in the cutoff with Ks9s and limp after one limper, a loose player, enters the pot. Rest fold and killer checks.


Flop is As Qc 8d. Checked to me. I try to steal the pot with a bet, but the limper calls me.


Turn is the 4s, giving me a flush draw. checked to me, I bet as a semi-bluff. I figure a king may wind up being an out, because I think the limper would have bet an ace on the flop. The value of my semi-bluff depends on the propensity of my opponent to fold his hand. The more likely he is to call, the less I should be inclined to semi-bluff. He is quite loose, but from what I have seen so far, he does not seem to incessantly chase once the big bets come. I figure there is a decent chance he will fold, and with the amount of money in the pot, I don't need a particularly high chance of his folding to make semi-bluffing the best play.


Comments welcome.


Dave in Cali

I'd raise preflop against a loose player to fold the button/blinds and get heads up. Other than that, I'd have played the hand exactly the same.


I don't agree with one of your comments however:


"with the amount of money in the pot, I don't need a particularly high chance of his folding to make semi-bluffing the best play."


According to your post, there are 3.5 SB in the pot preflop, and 5.5 after the flop. So, your turn bet is getting only 2.75-1 odds. He has to fold a fairly high percentage of the time I suspect.


David

If he calls the bet, I would be getting 3.75:1, plus implied odds on the river, because sometimes he would call a river bet when I make the flush. The flush draw is 4.1:1 against, so the proportion of times he must fold to make this play +EV is fairly small. I am not going to do the math right now, but it appears that even if he was only 10% likely to fold, it would swing the play into a +EV bet.


Dave in Cali

In a six-handed game as you described, this a raise or fold hand. My propensity would be to raise to capture the button and get it heads up or 3 way.

raise or muck before flop. either one okay. bigger swings raising, but not a bad play against loose passive. i'd play the rest of the hand the same way. it is a good bet on the turn. even if he does call. there's still a chance your hand is good. and if its not, its not much of a dog. but goes way up in value the times it makes him fold the turn.

If you thought that the limper was loose, and only likely to be forced out once the betting doubles, as you describe, then you were wrong to try to steal against him on the flop, especially given the presence of a third player in the hand.