09-10-2001, 09:33 AM
I've wanted to post this perspective for some time so here it goes. There are dozens of posts on frustrations with both bad (loose) players, and long losing streaks. When I began playing, I too posted my frustrations. I remember Mason answering my post on an extremely long losing streak (110 hours) telling me in his usual candid manner that losing was attributed to my "bad" play.
Looking back, he was probably right in his estimate. I'm a different player now and have logged several thousand hours of live and online play. I'm definitely a winning player at LL 2-4 to 5-10. It is a grind but I've been able to pay off some debt, and take the family on a nice vacation to Cancun this summer. I'll repeat it again, playing LL is a grind...no glamour and a lot of hours.
There are a couple of perspectives and influences which helped me to understand good play beyond both Mason and David's numerous books on poker. The stuff is all there but it took some additional insights which helped improve my game.
1. Mike Petriv's book on Holdem Odds made a profound improvement in my game. More than memorizing the outs and related odds, he teaches the basic formulas for calculating probabilities. After reading the small book, I drafted a 4x7 note card with drawings odds, and the minimum amount of money needed in the pot to insure a positive expectation. I also calculated effective odds which has saved me 1,000s of dollars in potentially loose calls.
2. On an overnight trip to Atlantic city, I logged 23 hours in a couple of sessions at a 3-6 table. After 23 hours, I was down about $250.00. On the trip home, I remember thinking how frustrating it was not to receive many playable cards. In fact, I had logged on a little memo book the exact number of playable hands (excluding the occasional blind-steal). I also logged the number of hands being dealt per hour. After some quick math, I realized that I had seen 923 hands of which 4% were playable. It was that realization that helped me to see the natural fluctuation of cards. Again, Petriv's book was a key component to this understanding. Also, the majority of my playable hands were "cracked" - usually by loose play (i.e. bad beats). Shortly after, playing online, I hit a streak of really good hands in a period of 20 hours. Another calculation showed a whopping 17% of playable hands. Some of these were cracked but enough held to show a hefty gain.
3. Amazing fluke hands like quads and straight flushes are a favorite topic of forum posters who are convinced that online poker sites are "rigged". I also play a lot of backgammon both in clubs and online. I recently joined an online backgammon site which offers online money play. Here is a clip from their FAQ which puts a perspective on unusual occurrences in dice rolls.
"I rolled five 21s in a row. What is the probability of that?
The probability of rolling five 21s sequentially is 1/1889568. Since there are nearly a million dice rolls on GamesGrid every day, you would expect this sequence to occur about once every two days. Since there are fifteen outcomes that are the same five non-doublet numbers in sequence (five 21s, five 31s, five 32s, etc.), you would expect some sequence of five of the same non-doublet to occur about once every three hours.
Humans notice (and remember) simple sequences, especially when they are unfavorable. The probability of rolling the sequence 31, 41, 54, 65, 62 is also 1/1889568; the probability of rolling any non-doublet sequence is exactly the same. But no one thinks the sequence 31, 41, 54, 65, 62 is the least remarkable (at least no one has ever remarked on it)".
With the many millions of hands being dealt on online poker sites, it would make sense that we will ocassionally see unusual flops. It would be more alarming if we didn't.
4. Finally, gaining the courage to fold strong hands when you become convinced that you are beaten (and avoiding the temptation to try and out-draw your opponent when the pot-odds don't warrant it) is money saved. Money saved is just as important and as money won.
Looking back, he was probably right in his estimate. I'm a different player now and have logged several thousand hours of live and online play. I'm definitely a winning player at LL 2-4 to 5-10. It is a grind but I've been able to pay off some debt, and take the family on a nice vacation to Cancun this summer. I'll repeat it again, playing LL is a grind...no glamour and a lot of hours.
There are a couple of perspectives and influences which helped me to understand good play beyond both Mason and David's numerous books on poker. The stuff is all there but it took some additional insights which helped improve my game.
1. Mike Petriv's book on Holdem Odds made a profound improvement in my game. More than memorizing the outs and related odds, he teaches the basic formulas for calculating probabilities. After reading the small book, I drafted a 4x7 note card with drawings odds, and the minimum amount of money needed in the pot to insure a positive expectation. I also calculated effective odds which has saved me 1,000s of dollars in potentially loose calls.
2. On an overnight trip to Atlantic city, I logged 23 hours in a couple of sessions at a 3-6 table. After 23 hours, I was down about $250.00. On the trip home, I remember thinking how frustrating it was not to receive many playable cards. In fact, I had logged on a little memo book the exact number of playable hands (excluding the occasional blind-steal). I also logged the number of hands being dealt per hour. After some quick math, I realized that I had seen 923 hands of which 4% were playable. It was that realization that helped me to see the natural fluctuation of cards. Again, Petriv's book was a key component to this understanding. Also, the majority of my playable hands were "cracked" - usually by loose play (i.e. bad beats). Shortly after, playing online, I hit a streak of really good hands in a period of 20 hours. Another calculation showed a whopping 17% of playable hands. Some of these were cracked but enough held to show a hefty gain.
3. Amazing fluke hands like quads and straight flushes are a favorite topic of forum posters who are convinced that online poker sites are "rigged". I also play a lot of backgammon both in clubs and online. I recently joined an online backgammon site which offers online money play. Here is a clip from their FAQ which puts a perspective on unusual occurrences in dice rolls.
"I rolled five 21s in a row. What is the probability of that?
The probability of rolling five 21s sequentially is 1/1889568. Since there are nearly a million dice rolls on GamesGrid every day, you would expect this sequence to occur about once every two days. Since there are fifteen outcomes that are the same five non-doublet numbers in sequence (five 21s, five 31s, five 32s, etc.), you would expect some sequence of five of the same non-doublet to occur about once every three hours.
Humans notice (and remember) simple sequences, especially when they are unfavorable. The probability of rolling the sequence 31, 41, 54, 65, 62 is also 1/1889568; the probability of rolling any non-doublet sequence is exactly the same. But no one thinks the sequence 31, 41, 54, 65, 62 is the least remarkable (at least no one has ever remarked on it)".
With the many millions of hands being dealt on online poker sites, it would make sense that we will ocassionally see unusual flops. It would be more alarming if we didn't.
4. Finally, gaining the courage to fold strong hands when you become convinced that you are beaten (and avoiding the temptation to try and out-draw your opponent when the pot-odds don't warrant it) is money saved. Money saved is just as important and as money won.