Gambling Theory and other topics...

[Wheezl]

Mason points out in the above work that you standard deviation for the game you are playing in is an extremely important factor. The idea is that because of the likely fluctuations you may be playing in a game that you are at risk of going broke in regardless of your getting the best of it. Using his calculations to find an adequate bankroll for the game you are playing in seems to be of major importance. However, one thing that I thought of after reading this that he neglects to point out (probably because he assumes it is self evident) is that if you compute your necessary bankroll for the game you are in and decide it is say, $10,000 that is not all you need to consider. He does point out that you should frequently recalculate the standard deviation to account for game changes etc, but I dont think he points out that if you run bad for a few sessions and have greatly reduced your bankroll, you should consider moving down tables. This is because at the time you decided that 10,000 was enough that was certainly true, but the issue is that you now have 5,000 in the same game that has the same fluctuations. Just because you have run badly for the past sessions doesnt make you any more likely to start running good. Each hand/session is an independant situation and must be treated so. Therefore, you can say at the present that 10,000 is enough to survive all fluctuations and that in a few sessions you might be down to 5,000 but will eventually inevitably swing back up and make money. This is true, but at the point in time you are at 5,000, your past calculations become meaningless, and only your expected future fluctuations are of consequence. Therefore if two weeks ago you figured out that you need 10,000 to play in your current game, and today you only have 5,000 shouldnt you move down? If this is accurate then the converse situation involving moving up should be true too. This is making the assumption that the other factors involved have remained constant such as win rate, but the only thing that has changed is your current bankroll as a result of natural fluctuations.

Just my thoughts, and to call myself a neophyte at poker theory would be giving myself too much credit.

Let me know if I am way off base here.