A hand for Guido

[rkiray]

Rather routine. It's the first time I've had 99 today.

Paradise 3/6. Typical table 37% seeing flop.

I'm UTG +2 with 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I open limp, 2 mps call, button raises. all call.

Flop : Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

checked to button who bets, only the bb folds.

Turn : 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif [Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

Checked to button who bets, sb folds, I raise, mp folds, mp calls 2, button calls.

river : T /images/graemlins/heart.gif [7 /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

bet, call, call

button had AA, mp had 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (what was he thinking). So, Guido, the secret to playing 9s, always make a full house with them. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[J.R.]

Bet the flop, call the raise. Bet the turn and 3-bet if raised again.

[rharless]

Deck change!

[Guido]

Hi rkiray,

I would have played it exacly the same /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I have the problem that I haven't had trips in the 22 times I got 99 /images/graemlins/frown.gif. Today I had 99 ones and folded to a raise from an EP.
I think when I hit trips a few times this hand will move up in my ratings very quick.

Thanks for the post /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Guido

[rkiray]

Let's consider this for a second. There are 6 big bets in pot preflop. 8.5 big bets on turn. 14.5 to the river. 17.5 at showdown.

If I played it your way, I think the button will raise (looks like you agree). Based on the way they played the hand it looks to me that we'd lose both blinds to a double bet. With a new shooter on the flop and the pf raiser yet to act I think we'd probably lose at least one of the mps. If all I had was bottom pair and only one of my suit on board with button yet to act, I think both eps should probably fold, but I'll be liberal. I think this will get me 3 big bets on each of the last three rounds for a total of 15 big bets. So my best guess is that I made 2.5 more big bets this way. More than an hour's profit. Of course there are a lot of guesses here.

[Ed Miller]

I would have bet the flop. You would have made more money if you had gone to war on the flop, IMO.

[Homer]

I would bet the flop and trap the players between me and the button for multiple bets (assuming the button will raise the flop). Failing that, I'd checkraise button's flop bet and drive out all the random gutshots (or at least make them pay to play).

I think check-calling the flop is the worst play.

-- Homer

[rkiray]

There wasn't alot of wars going on at this table. When someone raised very often everyone would fold or it would get head's up. Lots of people staying for single bets though. About 1/2 the time I would check raise this on the flop. As I stated in the "strange hand" thread, I really like the cr at Paradise. Most of the players there will always bet if they are last to act and checked to. Therefore I look for every reasonable place to check raise. Unless people think you cr often at Paradise you almost never get a free card. This contrasts with TruePoker where the games are generally very passive, so I almost never check raise there. UB seems to vary much more from table to table than the other sites. (Of course, this is just my general guideline, I alway adjust to the specific table, but if I just sat down this is what I assume for each site). Based on the way the hand was played I think the most I could have gotton more than my reply to J.R. would be one more big bet from the other mp. So I still think my way maximized my return.

[Guido]

As Majorkong said, I would also bet out on the flop, I didn't see that you didn't.

But let's play it my way:
Preflop: I raise, let's asume 1 MP calls, button 3 bets, we lose the blinds and both call. That's 10.5SB.

Flop: I would bet out, the MP calls and the button will raise. I would call and I think the MP does to. That's a total of 16.5SB.

Turn: I would check-raise. There are two senario's IMO.

1 The MP bets out, the button raises/calls I (re)-raise and the MP 3-bets/calls. This is at least 6BB.

2 The button bets out again, I raise, MP fold/calls/3-bets. In this case probably 3-bet. So this is also about 6BB.

On average that gives you 6BB on the turn and a total of 14.25BB.

On the river I would expect at least 3BB when I bet out. That makes it 17.25 in total. I don't think there would be a big difference in this case. Perhaps you win a little more but you lose a lot more hands when you don't hit a set on the flop and that's about 10 out of 11 times.

I have lost about 19BB with 99. Part of this is because I never hit a set in the 22 times I hit 99. I think I was a little unlucky in some of these hands:

I lost from AA pocket pair, KK pocket pair, trips QQ (pocket pair), straight on the turn and a flush Ace high on the river.

I admit I went too far by calling the flop or turn a few times but I don't think my pre- and postflop play is bad. In fact I think if I didn't raise preflop, I would probably have lost about the same. And now I was unlucky a few times and I never hit a set.

If you only called all of these hands you and didn't hit your trips, I think you would lose about 90% of them. That's 10SB and that's when you always fold on the flop. I made some mistakes and I should only have lost about 15BB. I don't think the difference would be that much when we had played the same hands. I think we would win about the same when we hit trips but I win more if we don't hit them.

I'm really learning a lot in these posts, thanks.

Guido

[Guido]

You should probably play the hand this way I think now.

Raise preflop, one MP caller, button 3-bets, we both call. 10.5SB

Postflop: bet out, MP calls, button raises, 3-bet, fold, cap, call. Total of 19.5SB.

Turn: check, bet, raise, call. Total of 13.75BB

River: bet, call. Total of 15.75BB.

This is when the MP doesn't call the flop. If he does you can expect about 3 or 4 extra BB.

Thanks,

Guido

[GuyOnTilt]

Rather routine.

If this is "routinely" how you play flopped sets against a preflop raiser and a field of 6, I think you have a lot of room for improvement. To be completely frank, IMO you played the hand horribly. Check-calling the flop and check-raising the turn is exactly how fish play flopped sets, and they miss out on a TON of bets by doing so. Bet the flop, get raised, either 3-bet or flat call. Either bet the turn and 3-bet it or c/r it depends on the turn card and whether or not you think someone will raise going on your hand-reads. If you decide against those, then at least check-raise the flop! Check-calling was the absolute worst option you could have chosen.

Note to new-ish players: DO NOT PLAY FLOPPED SETS THIS WAY!!!

[Guido]

I agree with this completely. On the flop, people will call you anyway so betting out is IMO by far the best action. I would probably 3-bet also. A set is a great hand but not unbeatable so you should let them pay as much as possible. On the turn you have a hand that is almost unbeatable so that's a good place to check-raise if there are still a few opponents in or you are sure someone will bet out.

Guido

[rkiray]

This is kind of weird. I keep a dream journal next to my bed and often record dreams. Sometimes ideas pop into my head in the middle of the night or early in the morning. Often these ideas are very good. I've solved many very difficult engineering problems this way. This is the first time a poker problem popped in my head. I had totally forgotten about this thread but this morning I realized I totally screwed up the analysis. Funny how the subconsisous works. I analyized the hand only based on the pot size. What's important is the profit, so I need to subtract the bets put in. Here is how the numbers change :

My way : 17.5 BB pot, 3.5 BBs invested, profit 14 BBs
J.R's way : 15 BB pot, 4 BBs invested, profit 11 BBs
Guido's way : 17.25 BB pot, 6.5 BBs invested, profit 10.75 BBs

I still think the way I played it was best for this table. If it was either a ram/jam table or a very passive table other ways would be better.

[Guido]

Hi rkiray,

I hope I'm not starting to dream about poker /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I think you're right for this had, but you should also look at the long term result. I think I win more when I don't hit a set. When I do hit a set I don't lose to that many draws as you do I think. I don't know what the long term result will be. Perhaps there isn't a difference, who knows. What does the rest think about this?

Thanks,

Guido

[Guido]

Here is an example from tonight that you probably wouldn't win. Or would you raise this one?

I'm the button with 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

UTG + 1 limps, I raise, SB calls, UTG + 1 calls.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif

Check, check, I bet, SB calls, UTG + 1 fold.

Turn: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Check, I bet, fold.

I like to play aggressive especially with only 1 or 2 opponents. You just need to learn to fold when you get raised.

Strange hand though today, don't know all the details but it went something like this. I had KQs in BB, 4 or 5 limpers PF. Flop Kxx and I bet out, 3 callers. Turn x, I bet out 2 callers. River x I bet out and get called by 1. I show my top pair and he shows pocket aces /images/graemlins/confused.gif. I like to think this is what happens when you play agressive /images/graemlins/grin.gif although I know he just played stupid.

Thanks,

Guido