Getting counterfeited--how to stay strong?

[The Ram]

Stars 2-4 NL:
In SB w/ JT of hearts. EP min raises to $8 and 2 guys call behind him, I call and so does BB.
Flop: AhJs3h.

Pretty solid start for me, so I plan to checkraise the EP raiser. I check and BB check, but EP checks too. 1st coldcaller bets min ($4) and button calls, and I pop it up to $16. Folds to bettor, who min raises me the $12. Button folds and we're heads up.
Now, I know the bettor from several previous games. He's kind of a maniac, or at the VERY least completely unpredictable in his hand strength, so I don't know where his reraise puts me and I call. (Mistake?)
Turn: 10s (AhJs3h).
Hmm, so 2 pair now to accompany my flush draw--I decide to go for another checkraise. Opponent bets $56, I make it $168, and he flat calls.
Based on my experience with this guy, this puts him on a big ace. AK or AQ. I could be wrong, but he has played top pair exactly like that a few times already and he'd have his gutshot, so I'm fairly confident it's at least some kind of ace.
River: ACE!!!

So, my 2 pair are no longer worth anything and my flush didn't come in. However, if I just check to him and my read was WRONG about the ace (maybe he just had a flush draw--he's crazy enough to play it like that) I'm sure he'll shove in and I'll have to fold.

So, what is the play here? Or in any case where your 2 pair is counterfeited but after being the aggressor for the whole hand, you will hand it away if you check.

I bet $36 (he had about $110 left)--figured it was just enough that he wouldn't just shove all in sensing weakness.

Thoughts on this (and related situations)???

[Jon Matthews]

Tough one.

Why don't you put him on AJ or JJ after he calls your turn check/raise? I suppose you know the player...

I think I'd have to check the river. If he bets small then just call but expect him to have bet it looking for a check/raise all in. If he bets all in you have to fold... would he do that with a crap hand? Probably not unless he's got you sussed here.

Did you have him covered?


Jon

[The Ram]

He plays superfast when he hits hands as strong as JJJ, so I count that out. AJ was a possibility I hadn't really considered, but perhaps should have.
Yes I had him covered.

This still doesn't really answer my question, though perhaps there is no real answer. But, here it is again.

Should you always just check and then fold to any reasonable sized bet? What if he just had a heart draw but figured (correctly) I could be pushed off when I check?

Basically my question is this: Do you give up too much by just checking and then presumably folding? If so, what is the play? Bet a ton? Bet a moderate amount to convince the other person not to push you off if you ARE in fact ahead (somehow)??

[crockpot]

i'm not a big fan of your call of the reraise, but i don't play no limit often with totally unpredictable opponents, so i could easily be wrong. still, i would prefer either popping it or folding to calling.

i don't like the river play much. most aggressive players i know would not be intimidated by a $36 river bet when it has been bumped to $168 on the turn. i know if i saw a bet like this, my first instinct would be to raise automatically.

if you think the $36 will pacify him, it's worth it to take a shot, but if i were your opponent, that size bet would give me much more motivation to push in than a check from you.

[Jon Matthews]

Against a normal opponent you should check/fold the river here as they will have an ace that they're taking with them to the grave.

Against this guy, maybe put him all in. I think the pot is around $400 now so that $110 would be just over 1/4 pot. In the scheme of things not a huge amount of money and he can't call with nothing, he has to fold. If you're beat then so be it, if he folds you get $400 but if he calls he'll probably win.

This is probably only viable since the range of hands he has is much bigger than the average player, more of which you have beaten than normal.

Cheers,

Jon.

[crockpot]

Against this guy, maybe put him all in. I think the pot is around $400 now so that $110 would be just over 1/4 pot. In the scheme of things not a huge amount of money and he can't call with nothing, he has to fold. If you're beat then so be it, if he folds you get $400 but if he calls he'll probably win.

this is a great analysis if you want to explain why the player should check and call here.

think about it this way:

he has an ace (or better): he wins either way.
he has a hand like KK, QQ, KJ, QJ: if he called a massive bet on the turn he will assumedly not fold now, although it is possible.

you have him beat: he will fold if you bet, but as the original poster said, will likely move in if you check.

one big mistake beginners make is betting when they will only get called if beaten. this can be the correct play only if you can make a significant percentage of better hands fold, which i don't believe is the case here.

[Jon Matthews]

It is a quandary though, the problem is that there is no more information that can be gained. My all-in suggestion is not the best in hindsight, yes it does stand to very likely lose if called, but it is a player dependent analysis and would never recommend that against a regular strong player.

Point taken though Crock, i'm taking it that it's better to check and call if you're willing to go all in as you stand to win the most or lose the same amount.

I suppose it would be an easier decision to make if it wasn't check/raised at all as there would be much more money to bet now and more info to be gained but that's the problem with them when they don't take down the pot uncontested...


Jon