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HDPM
10-22-2003, 12:31 PM
In case Ashcroft is monitoring us, Rumsfeld said this, not me. web page (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-10-22-defense-memo-usat_x.htm)


Finally somebody is asking the right questions. The war against terrorism contains an inherent paradox that is highlighted by the memo. And that is highlighted by the cost benefit analysis. We have spent billions to try to go after certain people because of a cheap but effective operation they pulled on us. But nothing we have done will really prevent another such operation. When you think about it from Al Quaeda's perspective, the attack on us was an astounding success. They spent a little money and lost a relatively small number of "martyrs." They caused great damage to our economy and now have us fighting wars that are sapping our resources. They really did quite a lot to change how our country goes about things and how strong we are economically and militarily. Talk about a force multiplier. The opposition to the war may lead to an attitude which prevents future similar operations and an attitude of excessive passivity. Our war against the Taliban was successful, but we can't hold the ground, so Taliban-like groups will come back and AlQaeda will have a safe haven again. The terrorist attack also caused us to topple Saddam's regime, which may be something the terrorists want in the long run. Saddam was horrible of course, but he was a secular dictator and kept the religious whackos at bay. When Iraq is sufficiently chaotic, the religious nuts and terrorists will fill the void. Unless we have the stomach to finish the operation and do what is necessary. I doubt we do.

Now, this is not meant as simple criticism of the Bush administration. They were and are faced with complicated problems that are not subject to simple answers IMO. They have embarked on strategies that probably won't work as intended, but it is not clear there is a strategy that would work. I think we need a very long term coherent strategy to deal with the problem. I think there are aspects of it we should implement now that don't cost much. The overall strategy must call for educating citizens on how to deal with terrorism. We must have the stomach to continue on after an attack. We can't let the terrorists affect what we do. No matter what happens we must keep the economy going, show up to work, be productive, etc.... We must also figure out a way to take all the money away from the terrorists. This means energy independence, and perhaps taking away the oil from those countries. I do not understand why the Bush administration won't say the war is about oil and won't take away oil. We toppled a sovereign nation, why are we squeamish about plundering the assets of that country. We also have to keep fighting the cultural war. We must secularize the world. We should export tv's computers, porn, music, books, etc... to the Middle East. The terrorists correctly perceive that our culture poses a threat to theirs. In the long run we will win, UNLESS we give up our country fighting these idiots. Like by ruining air travel or passing laws that strip us of our freedoms to gain an illusory measure of security.

The most radical strategy is to do nothing or better yet, become more like what the terrorists hate. I do not know that such a strategy would work or is the best strategy. But I would wager there are aspects of it that should be examined and used.

Again, Rumsfeld asked, not me. I wouldn't want to be considered unpatriotic or anything myself. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Cyrus
10-22-2003, 01:02 PM
Hey, excellent and well thought-out piece, with spot-on conclusions. I am tempted to quote below the whole paragraph that contains the gist of the situtation, damn brilliant job. (And I like it when you next write you don't wanna be "unpatriotice" or unduly critical of Dubya & Co!)

"[The United States has] spent billions to try to go after certain people because of a cheap but effective operation they pulled on us. But nothing we have done will really prevent another such operation.
When you think about it from Al Quaeda's perspective, the attack on us was an astounding success. They spent a little money and lost a relatively small number of "martyrs." They caused great damage to our economy and now have us fighting wars that are sapping our resources. They really did quite a lot to change how our country goes about things and how strong we are economically and militarily. Talk about a force multiplier.
The opposition to the [Iraqi] war may lead to an attitude which prevents future similar operations and an attitude of excessive passivity. Our war against the Taliban was successful, but we can't hold the ground, so Taliban-like groups will come back and AlQaeda will have a safe haven again. The terrorist attack also caused us to topple Saddam's regime, which may be something the terrorists want in the long run.
Saddam was horrible of course, but he was a secular dictator and kept the religious whackos at bay. When Iraq is sufficiently chaotic, the religious nuts and terrorists will fill the void. Unless we have the stomach to finish the operation and do what is necessary. I doubt we do."

Please also note Rumsfeld's exaggeration in the Memo : "The cost-benefit ratio is against us! Our cost is billions against the terrorists' cost of millions."

What?? "Millions"?! They don't get to spend no damn millions. Be surprised if they spend more than one million in what they do/did. Rummy still lives in a Hollywood-budget kind of world.

MMMMMM
10-22-2003, 02:31 PM
Some very real concerns are highlighted. One big problem is that we are in something of a damned-if-we-do, damned-if-we-don't sort of situation. If we resist the fanatics, they fight on and try to create more fanatics and try to attack us. If we don't resist them, they still try to do the same things.

It's all a big mess but it would still be all a big mess even if we had done nothing about 9/11. Plus by attacking them maybe we are keeping them on the defensive enough to distract significantly from their offensive efforts.


All the expenses we incurred for decades defending the free world years were immense. It still goes on to a large extent. I do believe the Iraqis should pay the costs in Iraq from future oil revenues.

Note especially how Rumsfeld is pointing out precisely what Kasparov pointed out some time ago in that WSJ opinion piece: that the cost/effect ratio works greatly in favor of the terrorists. This in turn means that solely playing defense in itself is a losing strategy, and that time is working against us. The question then becomes: what is the best way to play offense? Probably through a variety of means and on as many fronts as possible: military, financial, ideological, political.

Winning hearts and minds is part of it too but that's kind of hard when thousands of madrassas teach that jihad against the West is for the glory of Allah and that martydom for Islam is the most noble aspiration.

Hopefully if we can transform Iraq, the resulting prosperity, freedoms and better living conditions will result in many common people taking a more positive view of Western ways in years to come. Nothing will change the minds of the fanatics however, and the world can expect great troubles along these lines for a long time yet to come. How sad that people aren't smart enough to see through all the religious bullcrap. If the average IQ today were the raw equivalent of over 200 (as it might be hundreds of years from now) people would almost all be too smart to fall for this cultish religious nonsense, but I don't have great hope for the masses of the world over the next 50 years. Hopefully before light weapons are developed which give individuals awesome destructive powers, the average person will not be so susceptible to believing in destructive and delusionary nonsense.

Cyrus
10-22-2003, 06:09 PM
Your post was a honest stab at the issues but, near the end, you lost the thread, if you can excuse the pun. There aren't (and have never been) any Islamic fundamentalists coming out of Iraq.

Actually, Muslim fundamentalists and communists were the two groups that were most aggressively persecuted by Saddam.

To the point that the current American ruler of Iraq has invited Iraqi communists to take part in the new government!

John Cole
10-22-2003, 06:14 PM
M,

". . . people would almost all be too smart to fall for this cultish religious nonsense . . ."

There you go slamming the Christian Right again.

I think, perhaps, we just need a new set of "metrics," as Rumsfeld says. Sleep tight, George Orwell.

John

scalf
10-22-2003, 06:39 PM
/images/graemlins/smile.gif..rums can say what he wants...at least he did not lose an election to a deceases individual...now ashcroft...who can really say...for sure???

jmho..gl /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

MMMMMM
10-22-2003, 11:05 PM
I don't think I lost the thread, Cyrus, I just said what I had to say about it, and then added a bit tangentially as well.

"There aren't (and have never been) any Islamic fundamentalists coming out of Iraq."

No, they're going into Iraq right now. Lots and lots and lots of them.

MMMMMM
10-22-2003, 11:16 PM
John, that is part of the problem too, but the Christian Right is also very liberal compared to the Islamic Right. The mullahs and Wahhabis, etc., make Robertson and Falwell look rather like flower children from the 60's.

I think a great example of this was when Falwell said Mohammed was a terrorist, so Falwell's counterpart in the Middle East promptly put a fatwa on Falwell's head calling for his death for committing blasphemy. This is the year 2003, isn't it?