Jamming on a two-tone flop

Ok, I tried posting an EV calculation about this that got nowhere. So here's a topic I'd like to hear some people chime in on.


I found that one of the turning points in my game, where my win rate really started to turn around, was when I was able to start jamming hard on a two-tone flop with a strong but not great holding against a likely flush draw.


This accomplished several things for me. For one, it got lots of money into the pot when I was the percentage favorite.


Also, it allowed me to get away from the hand on the turn if I was truly beaten. After betting aggressively on the flop, it was MUCH easier to determine when I was beaten on the turn. I believe on average this saved me about one big bet per hand on those hands where I was beaten. Normally, without all the aggressive flop betting, you can convince yourself to call someone down on the turn and river. But after a lot of aggressive flop betting, it's easier to tell if he's got the goods. Depends on the player of course, but there's plenty of players who just won't get aggressive on the turn after facing aggressive flop betting. They go into check and call mode.


Lastly, HPFAP talks about keeping pots small in loose games so that players can make bigger mistakes on the turn by calling a big bet with a small pot.


This makes sense, and I understand the theory behind it. However, I would add that the reverse would be just as profitable. If you jam hard on the flop and get somebody to lay down a drawing hand on the turn when the pot is now big enough to justify the draw, you have ALSO caused them to make a theoretical mistake. This probably won't happen against nut draws but will sometimes happen with players who have 5 or 6 outs and now have odds to draw to those outs.


Another thing is, byy jamming hard on the flop I have run into opponents who are willing to lay down a better hand on the turn. It's not that common, but those times when I've pushed off a better hand to face the flush draw alone, it's enormously profitable.


Lastly, I used to fear the collective outs more than I should. Some people believe that when facing three or four opponents on the flop, the collective outs are so numerous that you don't have a good chance of winning. I've found that the number of counterfeited outs in these situations is often much higher than you think.


You might be facing TWO flush draws and a top pair with a counterfeited overcard, or top and middle pair with the same ace kicker against your KK. Stuff like that. In those situations, jamming is enormously profitable and I believe facing counterfeited outs is the norm, not the exception.


God only knows how they keep hitting them against me, though. :)


natedogg

They keep hitting against you because even when some of their outs are counterfeited, if you are against several players, they still have a lot of collective outs. furthermore, they have two rounds in which to hit any one of their outs, while you have to survive two rounds where NONE OF THEM HIT ANY OF THEIR OUTS.


I did look over your EV post, but hadn't reached any solid conclusions about it yet. I have posted a few of these myself, a couple of which I worked on for quite a long time, and they usually don't get a very good response (unfortunately). Although I hadn't come to a solid conclusion, it seems that you are at least pretty close. I used a spreadsheet, so rounding errors make a slight difference, for instance my % win for mason was about 1% different than yours. Whatever, no biggie, it makes little difference. Overall, you seem to have gotten it pretty much correct.


I have been searching for a situation where raising the flop vs. raising the turn makes a HUGE difference. David Ottosen and I had a discussion regarding this a month or two ago. I made a spreadsheet that analyzed the situation we were discussing, and it appeared that either course of action was so close that it really didn't make any difference for the best hand (in that particular example). If I find a situation where a turn raise gives a much different EV than a flop raise, I will certainly post my results.


For the moment, certain other things appear to be much more important. For instance, in mine and Dave's example, there were six players in the pot, with a total of 24 outs against the best hand. The choice was to cap the flop six way, then bet the turn, or to just call a single raise on the flop, then raise the turn and get several to fold. While the EV was close to the same for the best hand either way, the best draw did much better when the flop was capped six way than when everyone folded the turn except for the best hand. This should be obvious as a function of the "exceptions to the fundamental theorem of poker" phenomenon. Should anyone be interested, I could email you the results, or if demand is high, I may still post them here. Either way, the best hand is not nearly as concerned with what happens as the best draw is. When the best draw can get multi-way action, he "profits out the ying-yang". That much is totally clear. In our example, the best draw LOVED getting the flop capped six way, but the best hand hardly did any better either way (it was close to a draw).


Dave in Cali

" ...jamming hard on a two-tone flop ... it allowed me to get away from the hand on the turn [or river].


Can you spell b-i-n-g-o?

Good post, except I don't think you always need a "strong" holding or, against a mediocre aggressive, any holding at all. One reason this play works is when your opponent has one or two overcards to your pair that are lower than the highest card on the flop, so that you're an underdog or slight favorite with two cards to come. If your opponent doesn't fully grasp that you're playing him for the flush draw, he'll often discount everything but the flush draw. For example, if you have pocket eights on a Kxx or Qxx flop and correctly figure your opponent for a flush draw instead of top pair (e.g., he limped late before the flop or tends to wait for the turn to pop it with top pair or better), he's going to be hard pressed to call if he spikes an offsuit jack or a ten on the river after you played hard on an earlier round. I suppose the same applies when you have overcards on the river and he's on a flush draw with second or third pair on the flop but can't call since he missed the flush.

Dave, you said "This should be obvious as a function of the 'exceptions to the fundamental theorem of poker' phenomenon."


There are no exceptions to the FTOP. Think about it.


Alden

Is not Morton but one of these exceptions?


For a handful of nutmeg, Sredni might even enter the frightening archives and refer to many happy interchanges regarding same.


Sredni Vashtar

"There are no exceptions to the FTOP. "


Alden, you are wrong about this. This is even stated in the beginning of TOP, that there are some situations where you would want an opponent to fold, even if you knew he was making a mistake by calling. These situations occur only in multiway pots. Heads up, the theorem is ALWAYS true. In multiway pots, sometimes the best hand loses equity to a player with a good draw when a third player is in the pot who has a weak draw. This is discussed in detail in Dan Hanson's article in july 2000 card player. I wrote a post on this phenomenon a while back, it should be found in the archives on the general holdem or maybe the low limit holdem forums. This concept is extremely important in loose games where there are typically several people in the pot.


Dave in Cali

Dave, awesome post. I don't have much experience jamming with six opponents because the games I play, as loose and wild as they are, usually aren't more than three-handed by the turn.


What you say about facing six opponents sounds right. I think jamming on a flop with a single overpair against six opponents is probably a good way to increase your variance without much real profit. One of the keys to flop jamming I believe is to focus on two-tone flops. You can be almost sure that one or even two of your opponents is on a draw.


But it looks like the ideal is three or four opponents. If you take the case where you are facing a flush draw and a pair for 14 outs and you throw in another player with a counterfeited out, I believe your profit goes way up by jamming the flop.


So the answer is to pick your spots carefully for flop jamming. Which, of course, is the answer with almost any poker strategy.


natedogg

Alden,


you should read a little book called hpfap where they talk about this exception.


think about it.


mike l.