semi-bluffing

If I understand DS and MM correctly about semi-bluffing, one of the conditions must be the possibility that all remaining players will fold. Does this mean that in a loose 3-6 game with 4-7 players every hand and no chance that a semi-bluff from early position will cause everyone to fold, the semi-bluff should never be used? In the game I have been playing, (3-6 loose) we have 2 players who frequently bet 2nd or 3rd pair with an overcard from early position even though there is no chance everyone will fold. They frequently pull down large pots when they hit, and sometimes take the semi-bluff all the way. Is there strategy wrong? Comments Please.

A semi bluff is a bet which gets part of its EV from the chance that everybody will fold and you will get the pot. As the number of players goes up in any game the chance you'll get the pot decreases (still you should consider that a bet on one round might setup taking the bet on the next). If those players are loose then the EV that comes from the field folding is even worse (to the point that semi-bluffing a single loose player can be silly). But at the point that semi-bluffing becomes less profitable some value bet opportunities show up. Where you might semi-bluff middle pair, overcard, 3 flush you'll value bet and get called by enough hands and worse hands to make the bet profitable.

while a semibluff loses value since the players will not fold, typically a value bet becomes a good play since many players in these games will call with very little. There is a fine line sometimes between a semibluff and a value bet. My feeling in low limit games is that if you are in doubt it is generally better to bet. This may betrue not only because a worse hand will call but because very few players will be tricky, so that if you are raised you will know you are beaten.


Pat

Excellent info--Thanx--Ron

Consistently betting hands like bottom pair with an overcard into a large field is probably going to wind up costing these guys money in the long run. Semi-bluffing should be used less when the game is loose, and more when the game is tight. A semi-bluff, by definition, must have some chance of winning the pot right away, even if this chance is fairly small. However, if you are first to act, and bet into six loose players on the flop in a raised pot, the chance of your winning the pot outright is virtually nil. In this situation, you can only VALUE bet, not SEMI-BLUFF. The chance of your winning the pot outright is so small that it does not add anything significant to your EV on your bet. Therefore, if you bet a hand like bottom pair from early position, you are really only giving your six opponents an opportunity to raise you when you have a pretty weak holding.


Say the pot is unraised, two players limped, you have A5o in the BB, SB folds, you check, 3 players total. Flop comes 5 8 T rainbow. Here is a good opportunity to bet bottom pair. The chance that the flop did not hit either player is pretty good. You DO stand a reasonable chance of winning the pot outright if you bet here. But make it the same situation, but there are now six players total. Now, if you bet, you will almost certainly NOT win the pot outright, so you lose a significant portion of your value in betting. You will almost certainly be at least called by someone with a better hand, but you very well may be raised.


Whether to continue with a semi-bluff is a complex issue that depends on the exact board and your opponents. I am more likely to continue a semi-bluff against players whom I feel may fold on the turn for a big bet, but less likely to continue against calling station types. There is no point in semi-bluffing a calling station, you will simply be called. Also, the more opponents, the less likely you should be to continue with your semi-bluff.


One situation sometimes occurs where you are making a play that can be considered a semi-bluff in some situations, and a value bet in others. Say you are in the SB and limp with Td9d into a seven way pot. The flop comes 2d 9c Jd. You have a very good hand in this situation, even though you are almost certainly not in first place. Here, I would usually bet from the SB, as long as the game was relatively passive. Although this has some aspects of a semi-bluff, you KNOW you are not going to win the pot outright. This is a value bet. You want everyone to call, rather than everyone to fold. Now take the same situation, but say that you only have three opponents instead of six. Now, when you bet, you have a much better chance of winning the pot outright, so you are now semi-bluffing, rather than value betting.


Dave in Cali

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