Drawing to a flush vs 3 of a kind on the opponents porch...

[coachkf]

I see this all the time in low limit 7 stud, and believe it to be a huge mistake.

Player #1 has 4 to a flush, Player #2 has three of a kind on his porch.

Assuming none of the players cards are "dead" and were on 6th street. Lets count the outs. Player #1 has 9 outs to make his flush. Player #2 on the other hand has a total of 10 outs. One will give him quads, 9 will give him a full house, and both of these hands beat a flush.

So fold those flush and outside straight draws (8 outs) when you see 3 of a kind on your neighbor's porch.

1. He may have boat or 4 of a kind already
2. He has you beaten in sight
3. He has a better chance of improving HIS hand than you do of making yours.

What do you guys think?

Coach
www.poker-strategy.org (http://www.poker-strategy.org)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[coachkf]

Ok doky...I've been bashed unmercifully as "playing too tight" when I do this in low limit games.

On the other hand, some of the bashers are the same people who chase my AA with their rag hands /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Coach
www.poker-strategy.org (http://www.poker-strategy.org)

[Ed Miller]

It depends on the size of the pot. If there were a million dollars in the pot, I'd call with my flush draw for sure.

[coachkf]

Rofl If there were a million $$, of which a substantial amount was MY money, I think I'd call with my 4 to a flush and break out my knife if I didnt hit it...or if he hit his boat ;]

Dat dere is alotta money.

Coach
www.poker-strategy.org (http://www.poker-strategy.org)

[MRBAA]

In all seriousness, though, the amount of money in the pot does matter. Let's take a 5-10 game, where two other players were in until the guy caught his open trips on sixth. Now they both fold to his bet. Let's assume there was one bet on every street -- there would now be $80+ in the pot. So you're getting 8-1 on your call here. You won't call the river if you miss your flush (since you can't beat his board). You will call if you hit. So in that case you'd be getting 9-2. If this player has not been aggressive so far and could have started with a draw, then I think a call would be in order. If he has been leading the betting the whole way, you might fold. It's certainly not a good situation for you, but there are some times in stud where you have to just grit your teeth and call a bet or even two on the end just because the pot is so big.

[Andy B]

If there's $1M in the pot, it shouldn't matter where it came from. Once it's in the pot, it's no longer yours. It's worth playing for the size of the pot, unless the limit is $100K/$200K or something.

I would only call open trips with a flush draw if the pot were very, very large. I like to push flush draws, but I can't recall a hand where I made the pot so big that I decided to call open trips with a draw.

[patrick dicaprio]

calling is definitely the wrong strategy here. With a million in the pot i think shooting is the best play, with stabbing a close second.

Pat

[patrick dicaprio]

the four to a flush should fold here almost everytime. if the pot is large, your flush is live and many of the opponents boat cards are out then maybe it is a call but you dont lose too much by folding here every time regardless of the situation.

Pat