Get an extra bet now or wait till the river?

[ArchAngel71857]

Here is a hand where I feel like I was faced with the situation of whether i should raise on the turn and have him check fold the river, or call the turn and raise his river bet. Comments, critiques, anything welcome.

2/4 party, way way way easy table. everyone is LP, nonthinking, scared players.

I'm in CO with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif. 1 limper in LMP (the enemy), I raise, button cold calls, SB folds, BB calls, limper calls.

Flop comes 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
checked to Enemy who bets, i raise, folded to enemy who re-raises, I call.

Turn is K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. hmmmmmmm, juicy. now, Enemy bets. I was thinking here that if i raise him here, he would check fold the river. So I call.

River is 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. not the greatest card for deception purposes. he bets, i raise, he calls. I take it down, hand history shows he had 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the flopped straight.

So should i have

a)raised the turn?
b)played the way I did it.


My thought process on the hand was something like

"If i raise him here, i only win 2 bets, b/c he check folds the river."

"however, if i call here and raise the river, i win 3 or more bets."

Please tear this apart. Looking backwards i feel like i could have won a lot more my not thinking so much.

-AA

[Jezebel]

I almost always start the fireworks on the turn. Waiting until the river to show aggression has rarely been profitable for me. I would consider slowplaying to the river ONLY if there were several in the hand behind me and I feared my raise would knock them out, but they would call a single bet. Headsup I start firing much earlier.

[Lost Wages]

He bets and 3 bets the flop, then bets out on the turn. What makes you think you think he is going to check-fold the river if you raise? What could he have that he would call your raise and then fold for one more bet?

IMO you should raise the turn and hope he has a big hand that he will 3-bet. When you have the nut flush on the turn there is always the danger that the 4th suited card will will fall and kill your action.

Also, if he has a set (which is reasonable considering the board and action) you want to make him pay to see the river.

Lost Wages

[J.R.]

I raise the turn since another spade will kill you action against most reasonable opponents who don't have one and your oppoennt still likes his hand on the turn even though the 3rd spade fell because he is still betting into you.

BTW, why do you think an opponent will check-fold the river if you raise the turn but will call a river raise? On the turn your opponent may still have outs and I think he/she is more likely to call your turn raise than your river raise, plus after calling your turn raise he could catch a river card which leads him to give you lots of action. If you call the turn and a spade falls, you either missed a turn bet from a flush that pays you off or missed a bet from a hand like 2 pair that shuts down given the 4-flush.

Do you really think the turn call disguises your big flush enough so that you opponent goes off on the river. Maybe I'm cynical but the wait till the river seems obvious.

[chesspain]

Why raise the flop, and potentially force out others when you are drawing to, but have not yet made, your nut flush?
Isn't it better to try to collect a few more bets, knowing that if the /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits you're going to win anyway?

[Lost Wages]

In this case I think it's close but probably best to raise the flop because:

1. The pot is shorthanded so it may be won through sheer aggression.

2. In addition to the nut flush draw he also has 2 overcards. Forcing out the button gives him a better chance to win the pot without making a flush.

Lost Wages

[J.R.]

In addition, the pot was raised preflop and called in two places so its getting big (4.5 big bets when it is your action on the flop).

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
"If i raise him here, i only win 2 bets, b/c he check folds the river."

[/ QUOTE ]

Or he puts you on AK and 3-bets the turn and you cap and win even more.

Raise the turn here.

Peace,
JT

[Bob T.]

I like the raise, you have 15 potential outs against a one pair hand, you might want a free card on the turn, and you might win the hand with a raise right now. The only downside to raising, is that you have to decide whether or not to fire again on the turn, if it is checked to you.

[Bob T.]

Raising the turn, is probably better because he still might have something that he will draw to, like a big spade. On the river, he might fold to the raise, and he also might not be as afraid of a turn raise, because he might think that you would slowplay the flush to the river if you had it, because that is how you did play this hand.

[MaxPower]

I hardly ever wait for the river anymore. You will usually win the same amount or more by raising the turn. Get the money in there now because a scare card could come that will stop him from betting the river or he might not bet the river anyway. In addition sometimes you will get re-raised. There is no reason for your opponent to put you on a flush here.

Occasionaly he will fold to your raise, but that's OK.

[Yeknom58]

Raise the turn. On the river there are many cards that can totally kill your action. In addition many times people will call turn raise but won't even call a river bet mattering on the board.

[ArchAngel71857]

Raise the turn!

There were a lot of good reasons why I should do this, too many to mention, but all the comments were tremendous help. Nice to know i screwed the pooch on this hand.

As for raising the flop, I think this was the correct play. I gained a lot of information and i gained deception. too bad I failed to follow through on it.

-AA

[GuyOnTilt]

You should definitely raise the turn. But I'm more concerned with your thought process concerning how your opponent would react. When you say that you don't want to raise because your opponent would then "check and fold on the river," what exactly do you put your opponent on??? Unless he has one pair and a strong flush card, your opponent wouldn't call the turn if he was planning on folding the river. I'm more worried that perhaps you would play your hands this way, since you perceive your opponents would.

What is your usual play when raised on the turn? Do you usually call and then check-fold the river if you don't improve to two pair or better?? If so, I think there's a big leak in your game.

[ArchAngel71857]

No, i do not do this. the basis for this thought was more of a feel of this particular opponent. this table was pretty weak, and this hand was pretty much a brain fart on my part.



-AA