critique my thinking please

[Inthacup]

10 20 short handed game. Lotta ramming and jamming going on.


I get AA in the SB. 2 limpers to me, I raise, BB folds, UTG limp reraises(I put him on a high ace or a mid pair), CO calls, I cap, both call.


Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, , UTG raises, CO cold calls, I 3-bet, both call.


9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet again, UTG raises again, I put him on:

Set: 40%
2 Pair: 20%
Overplayed King: 40%

CO cold calls and I call. The idea of 3-betting came to mind, but here's what hit me in the heat of the action: He just called the 3-bet the flop. Usually when I see someone just calling the flop 3-bet and and then raising the turn, they're trying to maximize their profits on a monster. I narrow it down to AK, AA, KK and 77 with a really outside chance of K 9.

River: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Obviously, I'm ecstatic to see this card, but I have a small dilemma on how to play it. Now, I wish I had 3 bet the turn, lol. I like betting the river here for many reasons, but most of all, I like that the UTG will probably raise again if he has the monster I think he has. I don't like the stop and go on the river, but having it checked through would be a disaster.


So, I bet and both called. What do you think of my thinking on this hand and how would you play it differently? Thanks.



Cup

[PokerPrince]

I like the play throughout. I'm surprised he didn't raise you on the river. I think he would have had he held a set. You should have asked to see his cards.

PokerPrince

[rigoletto]

I like the bet on the river since there is a good chance he'll raise you (putting you on AK or even AQ)!

[Mike]

I like your planning, execution, and thinking!

[Magikist]

Sure smells like your opponent has KK to me, with an outside chance of pocket 9's if he's LAG.

the opportunity to collect two bets from both UTG and CO with a check-raise makes that the superior play in my mind.

[ajizzle]

I think your analysis is good on the turn, but IMO, you should have been narrowing his hands right off the bat when he limp-reraised.

I think that KK is out of the question for a limp/reraise, because it is just TOO risky. Though you did mention that there was a lot of ramming and jamming, it is risky in any position to limp with KK because the of the possibility that you only get callers and someone hits an A on the flop. (Note that I never play shorthanded games, and just realized the outside possibility that UTG anticipated that anyone with an A would raise in this SH game, thus automatically giving him a chance to limp/reraise with his kings. This may be standard play for SH games, but I don't think there are many players who know their opponents well enough to risk this kind of play).

With the possibility that he has K's thrown out (I'd say there's still about a 5% chance) I'd say the most likely hands for him are either AKs, KQ or K9. Even more-so than with the K's, I don't think it's good to open-limp with 7's, because 7's could very easily hold up in a shorthanded game.

My guess is that he's overplaying a pair of K's with a good kicker or two pair.