Raise the River with 2nd Best Hand?

[Lost Wages]

A hypothetical situation:

Suppose you are last to act on the river. There is a bet and a call to you. You estimate that there is a 40% chance that you have the best hand. This is an easy value raise, no?

Lost Wages

[J.R.]

I might be worth commenting on whether:

1) you get 2 calls when you are ahead
2) you get one call when you are ahead
3) you can safely fold to a 3-bet
4) will a better hand always 3-bet and not call
5) will a better hand fold (I know you said value bet but this should still be part of the calculus)

[rkiray]

I find the title and text confusing. I generally figure that 2nd nut hand is much > 40% likely to win a hand against 2 opponents. I don't understand the question. You need to expand. Do you mean someone else has a 50% chance?

[Mike]

You also need to consider what you are holding and the opponents that allowed this possibility to happen.

Is it likely to happen soon, or is it a fluke you fell into? One situation makes the hand more appealing than the other.

[Lost Wages]

Sorry if the title is confusing. By 2nd best (not 2nd nut) I meant that you have <50% chance of winning. Whether you estimate one opponent to have a 60% chance and the other 0% or 30%/30% or whatever, doesn't matter (I think). Of course I am assuming both will call and not reraise.

Lost Wages

[rkiray]

Well then it's a value bet but it's close. Getting 2:1 you only need to win 33% of the time. But if you think you may be raised then this is really close. If you get raised even 10% of the time, I think it's a bad value.

[Lost Wages]

If you get raised even 10% of the time, I think it's a bad value.

I think that you are saying that if you are reraised then you would have to revise your estimate of your percentage chance of winning, which of course is correct. On the other hand, if your percent chance of winning is fixed at 40% then you should welcome the reraise and happily cap it.

Of course, this is all completely hypothetiacl and you cannot estimate your chances of winning to a great enough degree of certainty (with all due respect to Mr. Sklansky).

I guess the idea is equivalent to pumping a flush draw on the flop with multiple callers even though chances are you will miss your draw. It just never occured to me that the same sitiation could happen when all the cards were out, at least in theory.

Lost Wages

[J.R.]

You can't just say 2:1, in addition you have to consider whether either opponent will call: suppose you have a baby flush and are torn over whether your opponent 1 has 2 pair or a flush (which will certainly be bigger than yours), and suspect opponent 2 is a wacky calling station. Will both or either call if you raise, if not, no value in a raise.

There is typicaly far more strength shown by a river raise than a river bet, so its less likely in general that your opponent's will call a value river raise than a value river bet. You need to consider how often one or two worse hands will call, and whether they will 3-bet, call or fold a better hand. This is not as simple as bet or check when last to act headsup on the end because of the multiple opponents and the presence of a bet already.

[rkiray]

I was basically assuming you would only get raised by a better hand. I was discounting bluff raises. The problem here is you now lose 2 bets instead or one (or none) if you hadn't bet. HPFAP talks about having to think you have at 55% chance of winning if you are called when heads up on the end to bet, instead of 51%. The extra edge is to account for the times you are raised. Just happened to reread that this afternoon.

[J.R.]

But with a flush draw you can, with some certainty, estimate the chances you will hit (yes some of your flush cards may be out and you may be re-drawn on by 2 pair or set), but that is easier (for me) to estimate than the chance you are ahead on the end, will be called by one worse hand, will be called by two worse hands, called by a better hand, raised by a better hand and raised by a worse hand.

[Louie Landale]

Right on.

If the villians are always going to flat call your raise, both of them, then you break even if you have a 33% chance to win. 40% is higher and so its a good "value raise".

If the first villian is the only one that can have you beat AND he MAY lay down a better hand you don't need much equity to make this sort-of-a-bluff raise. This is a realistic scenario when both Villian and you play well, both know it, you have a pretty good idea what he has, and he knows that you know the live-guy is GOING to call your raise.

- Loui