Was this flop fold correct?

[Noodles]

Paradise .50/1. was tightish
I am in MP with KK.
UTG+1 calls,I raise,CO calls,blinds out.
Flop 9h 10s 3c
UTG+1 checks,i bet,CO 2 bets,UTG+1 check raises,i fold fearing 2 pair or even a set.CO calls.
Bear in mind that the table was tighter than the usual low limits but these 2 were new and i hadnt a read on them so far.

[Mike Gallo]

Bad fold.

Someone could check raise with an A 10, or even a hand like JQ suited or 78 suited for an open end straight draw.

I would have gone into check fold mode. Call me a calling station, however most players wait until the turn to raise with a set or a made hand.

[rkiray]

Cap it

[Noodles]

Ok result of this was a K fell on the turn,both checked.A blank on the river,UTG bets CO calls. UTG had 77 CO had 2 9s.
I felt like a total wuss!

I folded as this hand came up a few days before.It is in another post of mine.
It is Empire .50/1 loose passive
I am in LMP with Ad Kh
4 limpers to me i 2 bet,blinds call as do limpers.
Flop [K 9 5]
UTG+1 bets,fold,fold MP 2 bets,i 3 bet (ok i had TP/TK here but as i raised preflop and then they bet into me should i have folded?I raised to see what would happen)
anyway only the raisers call me.
Turn [ 4c ]
Checked to me i bet they call
River [ 8d ]
Checked to me,I get chicken and check,
UTG has 3 5s,other has 2 pair

Ok i think this play on the flop was way to aggressive
1.because on so many people seeing the flop
2.because i raised preflop and then they bet into me which must mean strenght.

So what is confusing me is that after 2 bets on the flop i 3 bet and am easily beaten,
and after beting getting raised and check raised on the flop i fold and it turns out i would have beaten them.
Now i dont know when to fold,call or raise.
HELP!!!!!!!

[Mike Gallo]

Noodles,

CO calls. UTG had 77 CO had 2 9s.

Hence why the player with 92 made a good play he raised with second pair. You should have reraised. I would not have folded.

If you think someone has a better hand in a big pot, check call. Call me a calling station, however I want to see the better hand.

Stop looking for monsters under the bed.

[Ed Miller]

This fold is terrible. Even if your opponent showed you T9, you'd need to call for the size of the pot alone. But there isn't a chance that I wouldn't still think I had the best hand.

[Ed Miller]

Noodles-

Poker doesn't work like other games. Everything is probabilistic. What happened in one hand has little bearing on what happens in another hand.

At any point in any hand, unless you have the nuts, someone can have a better hand. If you have middle set, it is possible that someone has top set. But when you flop middle set, you just need to assume that you have the best hand. You will 95% of the time or more. As soon as someone raises you, that probability starts going down. But when you have middle set, it doesn't go down very fast. So maybe when someone raises you on the flop, the probability that you have the best hand goes down to 93%. So you 3-bet. And then he caps. Now maybe it's 88%. Now the turn is a blank. He bets, you raise, he 3-bets. Well, now you have to start thinking, "maybe he does have top set," maybe the chance that you have the best hand is down to 75%. But it's still high, so you 4-bet. If he continues to come after you, then you need to begin to conclude that your hand is no good and slow down.

When you flop an overpair, your percentage doesn't start out as high as it does when you have middle set. Maybe it starts out at 85%... maybe you will have the best hand 85% of the time against two opponents with an overpair. You bet, he raises. Now it goes down to 75-80%. But it's still high, so you 3-bet. He 4-bets. Now it has gone down to 65% maybe (obviously these numbers depend on your opponents. If your opponent is very passive, and won't raise without a set, then your number plummets much faster. If he is aggressive and likes to test you with all sorts of hands, then it doesn't go down very fast).

The point is, on your AK hand, you have a 75% chance of having the best hand, say, given the action. That hand was the wrong 25%. In this KK hand, you had maybe an 80% chance of having the best hand given the action, and you did have the best hand.

Also, say you conclude for some reason that you are behind. You need to think about what hands are likely for you to be behind to and count your outs. Against two pair, when you have an overpair, you will have 5 outs to improve on the flop and 8 outs on the turn. Same if you have top pair and your opponent has bottom two. Don't fold if the pot is big enough for your draw, even though you think you are beaten.

[Noodles]

So is it always stupid to fold an overpair on a board like this?
What about my situation below with the TP/TK.Maybe this incident has made me too weak

[Ed Miller]

Read my other post in this thread. Flopping two pair or better is very hard to do. You will almost always have the best hand on the flop with an overpair or top pair, top kicker. Just because you were beaten on one hand earlier in the session doesn't increase the likelihood that you are beaten in this hand.

[Noodles]

This is better than anything i have read in poker books.
OK i will start 3 betting more to find out what is going on.
I am fearing raises and giving them too much respect.
I will see how it goes and post a few hands,

[FR_Mainiac]

Noodles, what was MP's 2 pair? Did he flop the 2 pair of was he holding 98?

[Ed Miller]

Betting in poker can be something of a negotiation. You need to understand what each bet represents (of course, people do bluff in poker and don't always have what they represent).

So you raise preflop and get two callers. Your raise represents two big cards or a big pair. Flop comes three low cards. You bet. That bet represents nothing more than your raise preflop did. Someone raises. That bet represents a pair. He is saying, "I bet you have two big cards and I have the best hand with a pair now." If you 3-bet, then that represents the big pair. You are saying, "not this time... this time I actually have the big overpair." If he comes after you again, like say by raising you on the turn, then he is saying "I got lucky this time... your big pair is not good." If you happen to have spiked a set with your big pair, or if you have other value like a big flush draw or straight draw maybe, then you might go ahead and raise again, saying, "My hand is better than just a big pair, though."

But please remember that people don't always (often don't) have what they are representing. But you still should be aware of what each bet represents. The guy that raised you on the flop in your KK hand wasn't even representing a hand that beat yours yet! He was just saying, "I flopped a pair." And so he did.

[Noodles]

It was the check raiser that put me off,so in this negotiation was he trying to say "the PRF bet,he was raised,now i am check raising the both of you as i have 2 pair and i have caught you out"
Well this is what i kinda thought so i folded.I can understand the LPs raise but the guy Check raising with two 7s what was he trying to say?
I dont understand his reasoning here.

[Noodles]

He had two pair Ks over 9s!

[huzitup2]

I would never consider folding here unless the check-raisor was the tightest player on the planet and wouldn't even consider 3-betting with less than a set - 9s or Ts since the "TPOTP" wouldn't have limped under the gun with 33.

However (nonetheless and notwithstanding /images/graemlins/smirk.gif) - - -

There is no "big" draw out there; there's a very good chance that you ARE behind, but if you're behind to two pair you are getting the right price to continue.

A "3" or a running pair would be best; a King wouldn't be bad either.

All of this assumes that you ARE behind; I said there was a good CHANCE you are - there's at least as good of a chance that you AREN'T.

Best wishes,

- H

*

I'll run a sim to see how often you'll win if you do have to run down T9; I THINK it's in the neighborhood of 27-28%, but I could be off by a little.

[huzitup2]

you'll run him down 27% of the time - 26% if he happens to have Td-9d.

These figures need to be taken with a VERY small grain of salt.

You're in alot worse shape if your other opponent has a straight draw - even a gutshot.

Bottom line: You need to continue unless you are certain (or 99% sure) that one of them either flopped a set, OR slowplayed A-A.

[huzitup2]

His hand is not good enough (has too few outs) for him to try to semi-bluff.

He cannot POSSIBLY think he has the best hand.

Paradoxically, his hand is too good to use to bluff with.

*

Assuming he WAS thinking, the only [SEMI-reasonable] thought I can imagine is . . .

"The bettor has A-K and the raisor has a draw; if I can get AK to fold I'll be a [very small] favorite to win the pot."

*

This is the OTHER reason I worship D.S., M.M. (and the few others) who have written - and published - GOOD stuff.

- I have used these books to an enormous advantage.

- However, ALOT of people bought these books, skimmed through them ONCE or TWICE, picked up a couple of new ideas, and zoomed out to the nearest cardroom (or the nearest computer) so they could use them in ways that are TOTALLY opposite from how they were meant to be used.

"A LITTLE knowledge is a [VERY] dangerous thing".

-H