Does my read on the players change anything in this hand?

[psychprof]

I'm BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG, MP, LP, and Button limp, SB completes and I check.

Flop T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

I have a made straight, but my luck has been running poor and I won't be surprised if a diamond flush beats me.
SB checks, I bet, UTG folds, MP raises, LP, Button and SB cold call, I call. (If the board weren't two suited, with 3 players coldcalling 2 bets, I would have re-raised with my straight.)

Turn 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (Lady luck is cruel tonight)

SB bets, I call (hoping to call to the river cheaply on the off chance that my straight is good). MP raises, LP cold calls, Button folds, SB 3 bets.

Looks like my straight is no good, and I can't get to the showdown cheap, so I fold.

River A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets, MP raises, LP calls, SB 3 bets, MP folds, LP calls.
LP shows 2 pair, SB shows 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and wins. My river-made 9-high flush would have taken the pot had I stayed in.

Should I have stayed in based on the information you have so far?

Now, here's the read I had on the players before this hand (after having played with them for about two hours).
LP - calling station who won't leave if he has any part of the board
MP - bluffer who tries to intimidate people into folding (but sometimes has the goods)
SB - LAG who will bet, raise or cap with sorry kickers AND (here's a key point) low flush cards

Given my read of these players, I wasn't afraid of LP, and thought there was less than a 50% chance that MP had anything. I figured SB had the flush, but it could be Ace high or 4 high. On the turn, I thought for a second about the possibility of the river four-flushing the board giving me a 9 high flush. I decided the odds weren't there and folded.

Does my read on the players change anything? The reason I'm questioning my play is that the "exact" scenario I needed to win the pot happened, but I folded thinking it wouldn't.
All comments are appreciated,
PsychProf

[Mike Gallo]

If the board weren't two suited, with 3 players coldcalling 2 bets, I would have re-raised with my straight.)

I disagree. You have just given reason why you should three bet. You have the vunerable nuts at the moment.You want to make the flush draws pay as much as possible.

You have a diamond, and someone could have hit the idiot end with a 6. I peel another one off.

Despite your read, I think this hand should have gone to showdown.

[chesspain]

On the flop, you had the nut hand (for the moment)--you need to charge everyone the maximum to try to outdraw you.

On the turn, you can't assume that anyone has already made the flush, but someone may on the river, so you need to make them pay now. I can't believe you folded here, with the made straight and with an O.K. /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. You said you didn't believe you had the odds to call, but did you check to see if the pot had enough money to justify your coldcalling two BB with pot odds of 5:1? There certainly seemed to have been a lot of bets going in to the pot before this choice point.

I know it's difficult to hang tough in a hand like that, but you played rather weak-tight and out-thought yourself out of the pot.

[GuyOnTilt]

You would not have had to make such a tough decision on the turn if you had played the flop correctly. Get your money while you're ahead in the hand. Do you not raise preflop with AA (the nuts) because you fear you may be outdrawn? No. You raise because you have the best hand and you want to maximize your chances of dragging a pot by making inferior hands pay to outdraw you and perhaps limit the field. The same goes with your hand on the flop: you hold the nuts; make them pay to see the turn card. Your attitude of "my luck has been running poor lately and I won't be surprised if a diamond flush beats me" is a losing approach to poker. If you approach each hand playing timidly because you expect to lose, then you will lose. Learn to be aggressive with your strong hands. I would've raised the turn. What makes you think that there is only "an offchance" that somebody doesn't have a flush? So far nobody has done anything to infer that they have a flush, so you play your nut straight like it's best until somebody slows you down.

You cost yourself a very large pot here because you entered the hand with a losing attitude.

[pokertronic]

i think this is a good example of weakpassive. you have the current nuts, but are weak to raise and expect to lose before the river. too negative.
like everyone mentioned raise the flop, which would tie you to the pot to the river and you would be thinking of folding on the turn...

[pokertronic]

i didnt mean weak passive, whoops

[squiffy]

Excellent advice by Guy, Chess-p, and MG (and often from M Kong too though he hasn't posted yet here.) Since I have started to follow advice like this, I have quickly gone from a break even player to slightly profitable, making about $400 a month or so. Not a lot, maybe .21 cents a hand or so. But this is better than losing money and it is better than making 0 cents per hand, which is what I used to earn. I know I have much more to learn, but I have made great strides thanks to this forum.

As hard as it is, you must take this advice to heart and you will soon see your profits increase on your strong hands.

Your strong betting and raising will intimidate weaker players and build bigger pots for you.

I know how hard it is emotionally, because my gut instinct is to play it as you did. But I think you already understand how poorly you played it.

You failed to bet and raise with the BEST hand. And you folded the winning hand.

You should also specify the betting limits and where you were playing, as this can sometimes make a difference in the advice you will receive.

Congratulations on having the courage to post this. But you clearly let your emotions affect the quality of your play.

Logic and experience show me that my luck and bankroll run in cycles. You will have runs of bad cards. When this happened to me I would play with a short stack, play more timidly, stop raising and betting, and wait only for the absolute nuts.

When the big hands did come, I made little or no profit with them because I was afraid to bet them.

If you want to play profitable poker, you must have the courage and emotional fortitude to bet out and raise with strong hands. You must accept the risk that you will lose some percentage of the time.

And you must learn to accept this risk of losing.

Miyamoto Musashi, the greatest samurai in all of Japan wrote that the truly great warrior is he who accepts the risk of death with calm resolution.

He does not welcome death, but he knows that no matter how much he trains and prepares, there is always a high risk of death, which he can only reduce by constant practice and training.

You have a made straight. You will win much of the time. Sometimes, but not always, you will be facing a flush draw. Sometimes, but not always, the flush draw will river you. You must accept this risk of losing. And you must realize that the math is in your favor when you are betting and raising here.

If you want 100% guarantee of winning every hand you are in, you cannot play profitable poker. You will be way too timid.

You already know what you have to do. You just need to find the courage to do it.

One thing that helped me was that I dropped down from 2-4 to .50-$1, because I wanted to try following the advice of people like Guy, Kong, MG, etc. But I was afraid to experiment at 2-4 where the bankroll swings are much higher.

So at .50-$1 I could relax and experiment. Lo and behold, being more aggressive, at the right times, increased my win rate and profitability on my good hands. And that has made all the difference.

So now I have moved back up to $1-$2 and I dabble a bit in $2-$4. I hope to start moving back to 2-4 and 3-6 eventually, but there is no huge rush.

I am having a lot more winning sessions.

Think about it this way. You are a samurai in a heads up duel to the death. You are more talented than your opponent. So you have a 60% chance of winning and a 40% chance of dying.

If you focus only on your 40% chance of death, your fear will paralyze you, you will not fight aggressively and resolutely, and your chance of death will actually increase astronomically, perhaps to say 50% or 60%.

You MUST ACCEPT this 40% chance of death. PERIOD. You must face the risk of death with calm resolution, or you simply cannot perform.

[Mike Gallo]

Squiffy,

You gave this poster some solid advice.

I especially liked the Miyamoto Musashi reference. The Book of Five Rings and Sun Tzu the Art of War can help many poker players.

Good post /images/graemlins/smile.gif