Tearing my hair out.....

[Gomez22]

Over the last 6 sessions, I have lost 100 BB. Bevore this, I had a 15 sessioin winning streak racking up over 200 BB. Are streaks like this something I can expect? I haven't changed anything about how I play or the cards I play, it just seems that I'm getting sucked out on whenever I have a premium hand.

Anyways, just wondering if this is somehow "normal" in the world of hold em, since I've only been playing for about 3 months. Any words of wisdom would be appreciated.

Some stats for consideration (these have not changed during this slump):

BEFORE(7663 hands:
VP$IP: 20.20
VP$IP(SB): 36.77
Won$WSF: 28.46
BB/100: 6.33
WTSD: 30.56
Won$SD: 53.89
PFR%: 4.55

SLUMP(1244 hands):
VP$IP: 20.02
VP$IP(SB): 37.18
Won$WSF: 23.68
BB/100: -6.83
WTSD: 28.07
Won$SD: 39.58
PFR%: 4.66

If anyone can see something here, I would appreciate any help you might have to offer. Thanks.....

[Nottom]

I assume this data is from poker tracker ... what does it say your std deviation is?

[Gomez22]

Before the slump:

SD/Hour: 14.6519 BB
SD/100 hands: 19.4528

SLUMP:

SD/Hour: 13.2413 BB
SD/100 Hnads: 16.9760 BB

OVERALL SD:

SD/Hour: 14.7463 BB
SD/100 Hnads: 19.4970

What does Standard Deviation mean, anyway?

[Sven]

Standard deviation is a statistical concept that measures deviations from a mean. The amount of “swing,” either above or below one’s win rate, is measured by one’s hourly standard deviation.

Specifically, 68% of the time you will experience a swing within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Thus, if your win rate is $20 per hour, and your standard deviation is $400 per hour, you will experience hourly swings in the range of –$380 to +$420 about two-thirds of the time. You will experience swings within 2 deviations 95% of the time, and within 3 deviations 99.7% of the time.

Hourly standard deviations are primarily a consequence of the limit you are playing. Other factors include the structure and the nature of the game, and the playing style of the participants (with emphasis on one’s own style). When good luck is heavily rewarded, and bad luck heavily punished, standard deviations will tend to increase. Maniacal games and styles consequently yield high standard deviations, while straightforward games and styles yield the opposite.

In poker, you may think of standard deviation as measuring the amount of chips that flow to and from a particular player. It doesn’t measure the flow’s direction—only its magnitude. If you take a lot of chances, a tidal wave of chips may be headed towards or away from you. If you play meekly, the flow may be reduced to a trickle.

Hope this helps

[Nottom]

Well using your numbers ...

You lost 85BB in your slump over 1244 hands.

Your std deviation over that many hands is: Sqt(1244/100)*19.4970 = 68.76BB

Your expected value (recalculating based on you losing streak) over those hands was somewhere in the area of 50BB. So you are down about 2 Std Deviations off your norm.

This is something that will happen about 5% of the time over a given period of time.

Of course it is also fairly likely that you were running good up until your slump and your winrate wasn't as high as you think, which would make a dip like this a bit more likely.

BTW, Std deviation is basically an average of how far a given result will differ from the expected result (you can ask in the probability forum for a more detailed answer if you want)

P.S. I think you should be raising more preflop.

[Sven]

My Standard Deviation is Small Sample "1000 Hands"
SD/Hour: 0.7282
SD/100 hands: 0.9667

[Gomez22]

Thanks for the detail, nottom. Sounds to me like this may just be some type of anomolie from what you said.

As far as PF raising goes, I tend to basically raise PF from EP with: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010(if 1st in), AKs, AQs, AJs, AK, AQ(If 1st in).

From MP: 1010, 99(1st in), KQs, QJs, KQ.

From LP: 88(1st in), AJ, KJs, J10s(1st in), 77(button), 66(button).

Most of the time these hold true, but I do mix it up once in a while(sometimes I limp from button with JJ or 1010 with 4 or more callers in front, especially UTG caller... stuff like that).

What would you consider a tight aggressive PFR%???

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]

Tearing my hair out.....


Anyways, just wondering if this is somehow "normal" in the world of hold em, since I've only been playing for about 3 months. Any words of wisdom would be appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

Its normal to have swings like this. The makers of rogaine and propecia have conspired with the gods of poker to make it so.

You have to learn to appreciate the swings. Without them you can not be a winning player. Think about this for a second. Imagine poker where losing players never won and winning players never lost. How long would the losing players play a game like that?

Why do pool sharks purposely add swings into thier results? Its only becuase they want to maximize them over the long run. Poker players are Lucky. Our game intrinsically does this perfectly for us.





Stu

[Gomez22]

Thanks for the input, Sven....

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
What would you consider a tight aggressive PFR%???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure. Mine is well over 10% but I'm generally a maniacal bastard. Under 5% just seems low to me.

[Mike]

Does your software tell you who you lose the most hands to or just the basic stats on your play?

Perhaps you want to manually see if you lose to one or two players more than the rest? Make sure you check number of hands lost and pot sizes. It may be you lose less in numbers of hands to a certain player, but more in $$.

If you are losing to the same player(s) more often than the rest of the players you have lost hands to, you need to quit playing with them. They have your game figured out.

If they are different players with about the same losses, you either sprung a sudden small leak, or the ups and downs are running their normal course.

If the ups and down are running their normal course, you can work on possible small leaks in your game. That seems to help.

[Moonsugar]

This is all normal. Everyone says it, so it must be so.

Now what everyone will also tell you is that you should just continue playing in that beatable game and everything will work out. For me personally, if I am in the middle of big winning streak or a big losing streak I take a break and do something else. Since emotion and psychology are so important I try to get back to even keel. I think overconfidence (when winning) and pessimism (when losing) can lead to big problems and losses. At least for me this is still so.

So, while it is normal I think you should try to minimize the impact of the "tearing my hair out" feelings.

[MaxPower]

Gomez, your results are very normal. I've got the same thing going on myself. You've won 15 out of your last 21 sessions which is very good and your win rate is also very good.

I also think you should raise more preflop and possibilty tighten up just a little bit. Although I'm not sure because I don't know what limits you are playing. If its 3/6 or higher, most of the good players are somewhat tighter and more aggresive.

Overall it looks as if you are playing very well.

[Mike Gallo]

Go-go Gomez,

You have started to understand how the game of Hold em works. Excellent,however a poker player also needs knowledge of gambling theory.

I suggest that now you have a working knowledge you buy and read Gambling Theory and Other Topics from Mason Malmuth.

This book will explain the inevitable swings that all gamblers face. You will hit valleys you will hit peaks you will hit plateaus. As you gain more experience, not just from playing but from all of the session you put in, you will realize that sometimes you will win sometimes you will lose.

Expect to lose 1 out of every 3 sessions. If you win 12 in a row, you might lose 4 in a row. It will happen. Do not panic when it does.

[Gomez22]

I apprecciate all the advice you have given to me regarding this post. I haven't experienced something like this since I started playing "by the book" hold em. Of course, when I FIRST started playing, every session seemed to be a losing one, but since hanging here and reading HEP(Sklansky), CBOHEP(Carson), WLLHE(Jones), HEPFAP(Sklansky&Malmuth), TPFAP(Sklansky), and TTOP(Sklansky), I have a much better understanding of the game (at least for a 3-month old rookie). I appreciate the time you all took to answer me in my time of need and have much higher spirits now.

Thanks Again, and hope to see you all on the table (with you holding rags, of course.... hehehehehehehehe).

Gomez

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[chenyi]

Hi, I never use pokertracker before, could you explain what does the the notation mean? /images/graemlins/cool.gif
Thanks in advance.
VP$IP: 20.20
VP$IP(SB): 36.77
Won$WSF: 28.46
BB/100: 6.33
WTSD: 30.56
Won$SD: 53.89
PFR%: 4.55

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi, I never use pokertracker before, could you explain what does the the notation mean?
Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]
VP$IP: 20.20 -- Volentarily put $$ in the pot %
VP$IP(SB): 36.77 --- same but from the SB
Won$WSF: 28.46 --- Won $$ when saw flop %
BB/100: 6.33 --- Beg bets won /100 hands
WTSD: 30.56 --- went to showdown %
Won$SD: 53.89 --- % won $$ at showdown
PFR%: 4.55 --- preflop raise %