DO NOT ASSUME YOUR OPPONENTS ARE SANE

[Homer]

I'm dealt Th 8s in the BB. Two limpers, SB completes, I check.

Flop - Qs 6s 8c

I bet, button and SB call.

Turn - 8h

I bet, SB calls.

River - 6h

SB bets, I raise, SB reraises and I call.

Need I even tell you what SB had? I'll give you a hint -- he didn't have an 8 (or QQ/66). /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Just a friendly reminder to go ahead and cap it with your nut (or close to it) hands, even when you are "sure" that you are going to chop.

-- Homer

[GuyOnTilt]

SB had 22 and thought his 3-pair was good. I agree though; I've failed to reraise on the river too many times figuring it was a chop, only to find out that my opponent was an idiot and that I missed a bet or two.

[ajizzle]

I agree. If he had QQ or 66, I find it very hard to believe he would wait til the river to play his hand. If he has an 8, he probably raises on the turn as well. As you said, I think you missed out on a BB here, but I don't think it was because your opponent was insane. In fact, based on your betting pattern for this hand, i wouldn't have put you on an 8. Unknowingly, I think you semi-slowplayed your hand, and won big because of it. there were a wide range of hands your opponent could put you on, and he probably felt he was getting good odds on the hand. I don't blame him for losing the hand, but sometimes you just run into a BB with trips.

[Homer]

Unknowingly, I think you semi-slowplayed your hand, and won big because of it.

Huh? I believe you may have misread the hand. I bet with middle-pair on the flop, and turned trip 8's.

-- Homer

[ajizzle]

What I meant to say was that your opponents had no real sign to put you on a strong hand, for you might have been betting a Q, mid pocket pair, or even a 6. It would be very hard IMO for them to conclude that you have 8's full of 6's based on the hand, and thus you can't blame him for pushing a mediocre hand when he possibly is getting the right odds.

I realize that my original post was quite confusing and possibly contradictory. My only attempt was to posibly show you that your opponent may not have been so crzy after all.

[Homer]

Perhaps betting the river was not crazy, as he does not want me to check it through with a Q, and he probably assumes that's what I have since word on the street is that I'm weak-tight -- but three-betting after I raised definitely was nuts.

-- Homer

[Brian]

I think he has a 6.

-Brian

[crockpot]

i love opponents who play only their cards. even when the board is incredibly scary, they'll bet their best five cards in hold 'em like the same hand as a pat monster in five-card draw.

plus, they allow you to win money on hands like the big full house on a two-pair or trips board, or the nut flush on a four- or five-suited board. how can you go wrong?

[ThingDo]

I'm going to say AA on this one ... for pure comic value.

[Lottery Larry]

otherwise your "sane" header doesn't make sense

[Homer]

My opponent had a 6. This wasn't meant to be a tricky post -- just a reminder that people can and will make plays that make no sense. Don't assume you are going to chop!

-- Homer

[squiffy]

He had 23o or 79o and was trying to bluff you out of the pot.

[squiffy]

Look there was a 25% chance you bet with a pair of Qs, 25% chance you had a pair of 8s, 25% chance you had a pair of 6s, and 25% chance you were bluffing. So in his mind, he had a damn fine chance of cooking your goose, smart-guy, especially since he had two chances to draw to trip 6s.

Anyway, he made you SLOW DOWN, didn't he TOUGH GUY!!!???? That was poker brilliance. You should bow down in awe. So he won a moral victory, even though he paid heavily for it, and now owns you, psychologically at the poker table.

[Homer]

This, as most things, reminds me of a Simpsons quote (I'm Fat Tony):

Tony: [clearing his throat] Greetings, Homer.

Homer: Hey! Fat Tony! You still with the mafia? [walks away]

Tony: Uh... Uh, yes, I am. [holds him back] Thank you for asking. Now, Homer, as you no doubt recall, you were done a favor by our, uh, how shall I say -- Mafia Crime Syndicate.

Homer: Oh, yeah...

Tony: Now the time has come for you to do us a favor.

Homer: /images/graemlins/shocked.gif You mean the mob only did me a favor to get something in return? Oh, Fat Tony! I will say good day to you, sir!

Tony: Okay, I will go now.

-- Homer

[ninja please]

i agree -- always always cap on the river in an obvious chop situation, because sometimes people just get blinded by decent hands that get ruined. i've made lots of money putting in that final raise with an A on a KQJTx rainbow board when i was certain it would be a chop, only to see a hand like KQ shown down. all you can lose is a little rake (maybe), but you can win some extra BBs.

granted, homer's hand was not the absolute nuts, but i'd say it was quite fair to rule out QQ or 66. and i don't think his opponent was TOO insane. clearly he made homer for top pair (obviously that's what he has if he's betting), and for some reason decided to call down with bottom pair -- you never know when you'll hit two pair or, voila!, a full house on the river that beats any top pair. the reraise is obviously quite foolish, but at least you can track his thought process, as supremely flawed as it is. i reserve insanity for plays that have no decernable thinking behid them at all.