PLO hand against a big stack.

[Kevin J]

PLO ring game. $10/$25 and a $50 straddle.

First guy has about 20k in chips and raises to $175. I'm next with $1500 in chips. I call the $175 and raise $425 with Ac,Ah,Js,8h. Everyone else folds, he calls.

The flop comes Kc,7c,5d. He bets the pot.

At the time, I'd have felt pretty weak folding to such a large stack heads-up. His bet (which could only cost me my last $900), seemed inconsequential in the scheme of things. After all, I would've been willing to go all-in before the flop if necessary. While I could certainly think of better flops for my hand, I felt I was somewhat committed. Is this a very wrong way to think about this situation?

I called my last $900 all-in. He had AK (which is about where I put him), but he also had a club draw. So he had something like 11 outs twice. If he had KQ and another pair, I'm in much worse shape. As it turns out I felt very lucky to have my hand hold up. Lucky enough to where I'm now wondering if this was such a clear call after all. Thanks in advance.

[bugstud]

I doesn't look that bad, you put in 2/5th of your stack preflop and then are parying that he's got AKQJ or the like and not KK...

I wouldn't make a habit of these calls, though...you're learning, keep up the good work.

[Guy McSucker]

I make him a slight favourite with 14 outs: eight clubs plus six cards that give him two pair. It's very close though.

In my opinion he is more likely to be putting you to the test here, with what is to him a relatively small bet, than he is to be holding a monster. If he'd flopped three kings I think he ought to check since it's pretty likely you will push in. If he hasn't hit something big, you are going to be a favourite or at worst even money, as here, so you need to call.

I could be reading this all wrong and of course I only play for much smaller stakes, so feel free to ignore me.

Guy.

[Kevin J]

Thanks bugstud-

I guess if I had more chips, I'd have been more careful if only because, I'd assume HE'D be more careful. Thanks again.

[Kevin J]

In my opinion he is more likely to be putting you to the test here, with what is to him a relatively small bet, than he is to be holding a monster.

This is what I thought too. It turns out, I was wrong and his bet was very legitimate.

If he'd flopped three kings I think he ought to check since it's pretty likely you will push in.

This is an excellent point and makes me wonder.. Would it ever be correct to check behind on the flop heads-up with my hand (and possibly try to pick off a bluff later depending on what came?) Thanks.

[Graham]

Good post by Guy. Esp the point about KK checking.

My thoughts when reading your post were that you can't fold - or if you did, you'd better just get up from the game.

Your image would be destroyed if you let yourself be pushed around like this and you'd be in trouble the rest of the session unless you actually got lucky and hit some flops with good hands. If I was your big stacked opp, I'd put you to the test as well, almost regardless of my hand, if I could peg half your hand as a likely AA and also thought you could fold. I fairly regularly flop steal from the tighter players I can peg with AA in my - smaller stakes - online games, even with crud in my hands.

jmho
G

[Kevin J]

So he had something like 11 outs twice.

I probably oughta learn how to count if I'm going to play this game. He had much more than 11 outs. 6 side cards for two pair, 2 kings, and 9 flush cards for 17 outs. Wow! I better be more accurate in the heat of play...

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Auto-call. You're getting better than 21:9 on the call, almost 22:9. And you may be ahead. Your only real problem is if he flopped a set, and as others have said, a lot of players would check to you here if they flopped a set.

Also, I count 16 outs twice, though you have redraws to 9 of them. Probably he's a small favorite, and you therefore should be glad you called. And even more glad when your hand held up.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Graham]

Even giving him backdoor diamonds and a backdoor straight draw, along with the club draw, you're still ahead.

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=104448
pokenum -o ac ah js 8h - ad kd 9c 8d -- kc 7c 5d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Kc 7c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ac Ah 8h 450 54.88 370 45.12 0 0.00 0.549
9c Ad Kd 8d 370 45.12 450 54.88 0 0.00 0.451



Giving him clubs, diamonds and an open ender, along with live side cards, you still need to play:

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=104451
pokenum -o ac ah js 8h - ad kd 6c 4d -- kc 7c 5d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Kc 7c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ac Ah 8h 353 43.05 467 56.95 0 0.00 0.430
6c Ad Kd 4d 467 56.95 353 43.05 0 0.00 0.570


Giving him the wrap still has you needing to put your last $$ in.

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=104462
pokenum -o ac ah js 8h - 8d kd 6c 4d -- kc 7c 5d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Kc 7c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Ac Ah 8h 258 31.46 562 68.54 0 0.00 0.315
6c Kd 8d 4d 562 68.54 258 31.46 0 0.00 0.685


So you just got to worry about KK (or other set), which Guy already gave a good reasoning of. Correct me if I'm wrong.

G

[Guy McSucker]

16 outs. That's right. Forgot he could hit a king.

Doh.

Guy.

[tewall]

(about checking) You'd have to counter that against the chance that he would have folded to a bet, but the free card you gave him winds up costing you the pot. Also you'd think he'd have to know a bluff can't work.

[bugstud]

He also might have a hand like QQJT that he checks and folds here, or AQQx or the like that's an underpair with no draw.

[Kevin J]

I knew knew a site like that existed. Thanks.