Preflop poll - Limp then fold for one more bet?

[Homer]

You open-limp four off the button with KJo in a loose-passive game. The button limps, the small blind folds and a tight-aggressive player raises from the big blind. What do you do?


-- Homer

[Homer]

Last night this situation occurred and I folded. It felt strange but I believe it was the correct play.

-- Homer

[Lost Wages]

If folding to a raise was the correct play then limping must have been the wrong play.

Lost Wages

[Homer]

If folding to a raise was the correct play then limping must have been the wrong play.

Please explain why this statement must be true.

-- Homer

[Ed Miller]

If there were a place to fold for one bet, this might well be it. S&M suggest calling anyway, if only for image-related reasons.

[Ed Miller]

Please explain why this statement must be true.

I'll save you some time. It isn't true. It can easily be correct to play against a random hand, but fold against a hand that is no longer random (because it is now a "raising" hand, not a random hand).

[Lost Wages]

I don't think you should limp if you are unwilling to call a raise from any of the remaining players.

It is a different situation than betting and folding to a raise on a later street. You get to see three cards if you call the preflop raise. Certainly, there are situations where you limp and it's 2 or 3 bets back to you where you should fold.

Lost Wages

[GuyOnTilt]

After 4 folds I'd be open-raising KJo. What was your reason for open-limping here???

I'd still be calling his raise. After you showed weakness by open-limping from MP and the Button showed weakness by not raising to isolate the weak limper, the BB can raise with hands like 88, A9s, or KTs. That coupled with the fact that you're getting 5.5:1 (about to be 6.5:1 after Button calls) is enough to make me see a flop.

[J.R.]

Tight aggressive would raise with what in a 3-handed pot that you like your hand's chances against...99, TT, KJs or AQ?

Even though you are getting 4.5-1 (probably 5.5-1), you have that reverse implied odds thing working since you may hit your hand and have to pay off a better hand. I'd rather have something like 98s than KJo here.

[Bad Beat Coming]

FWIW, I wouldnt limp with this at all (thus I choose "neither" in your poll options). Im inclined to raise here, if for no other reason than to pressure the blinds.

[Homer]

I often open-limp from four off the button (MMP - middle middle position /images/graemlins/grin.gif) with KJo in a loose game. I believe this is what is recommended in HPFAP, but who knows, I haven't read it in a while.

-- Homer

[J.R.]

I'd probably open-limp KJo 4 of the button in a loose passive game since I have almost no shot of stealing the blinds and little chance of buying the button yet I can induce all sorts of dominated hands to call me here.

[Mike Haven]

it's an interesting idea in the situation

i assume you are thinking he has AA KK QQ or maybe AKs

if you were HU and all in you would win 14% 10% 29% and 26% of games, respectively, and you would need to win 18% of games to break even on your call

as you probably wouldn't win too much if you flopped your K and he had QQ, your decision can't be too far out

[Lost Wages]

It can easily be correct to play against a random hand...

You've lost me. He opens four off the button, there are 6 left to act so a raise by one of them has to be considered.

..but fold against a hand that is no longer random (because it is now a "raising" hand, not a random hand).

This logic would have you folding with a lot of your limps. E.g. you open limp in early position with a small pair, next guy raises all fold to you. Do you fold?

Lost Wages

[Homer]

This logic would have you folding with a lot of your limps. E.g. you open limp in early position with a small pair, next guy raises all fold to you. Do you fold?

In this case, there are two differences:

1) You are getting proper odds (4:1) to call (barely) in the hope of spiking a set on the flop.

2) Raising a single limper from MP/LP is much different than raising two limpers from the BB (in other words, the raiser isn't as likely to have a powerhouse hand).

-- Homer

[Lost Wages]

1) You are getting proper odds (4:1) to call (barely) in the hope of spiking a set on the flop.

Your implied odds are not nearly so good heads-up, especially since he will fold overcards to your heat.

2) Raising a single limper from MP/LP is much different than raising two limpers from the BB (in other words, the raiser isn't as likely to have a powerhouse hand).

Agreed

Lost Wages

[Homer]

Your implied odds are not nearly so good heads-up, especially since he will fold overcards to your heat.

You're right. Perhaps I should have said better odds instead of proper odds.

-- Homer

[Ed Miller]

You've lost me. He opens four off the button, there are 6 left to act so a raise by one of them has to be considered.

Think about it this way. Say you have an opponent who will only raise with KK. Not AA, not QQ, only KK. He is in the BB. You have KJo. You limp. Everyone folds, then he raises. Should you call?

The answer is no, you should fold. Does that make your initial limp incorrect? Again, no... you were correct to enter the pot with KJo. Your hand will be significantly better than his random hand often enough to make entering the pot correct.

Just because a raise could happen does not mean that you should not enter the pot with a hand you wouldn't call the raise with.

[Homer]

The vote is presently 11-3 in favor of calling. For those of you who selected Call, what was your rationale?

-- Homer

[Lost Wages]

Say you have an opponent who will only raise with KK.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif OK, if he shows me KK then I would fold.

Just because a raise could happen does not mean that you should not enter the pot with a hand you wouldn't call the raise with.

On this we will have to agree to disagree.

Lost Wages

[Lost Wages]

For those of you who selected Call, what was your rationale?

Since limp-reraise wasn't an option I picked the closest answer /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Seriously, you are getting a likely 5:1 to call and you have position on the raiser.

FWIW, I think open limping in MMP with KJo is fine but I would call one raise back.

Lost Wages

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Your implied odds are not nearly so good heads-up, especially since he will fold overcards to your heat.

You're right. Perhaps I should have said better odds instead of proper odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This thinking is off. Making your decision strictly based on implied odds is something you do when you can only win if you hit. When you have two ways to win it's an entirely different calculation. To see that this is an easy call, consider two scenarios: 1. He never folds post flop. Now your I.O. for flopping a set are plenty ar 11+ : 1. OR 2. He'll fold to a checkraise flop/bet turn pattern without a pair. Now when you miss your set you can risk 2.5 BB total (.5 preflop plus 2 post flop) to win 3 BB. Assume he'll have a pair half the time by the turn. (.5 = .15 <-- starts with a pair + .85*.4 <-- doesn't start with one but makes one by the turn.) Now your EV = .12(4) (<-- since he'll pay you off half the time when you flop a set) + (.88)(.5)(-2.5) + (.88)(.5)(3) = .7 BB. Obviously I made a lot of assumptions but it should be clear this is a very profitable call no matter how you look at it.

[Ed Miller]

Just because a raise could happen does not mean that you should not enter the pot with a hand you wouldn't call the raise with.

On this we will have to agree to disagree.

This is not an "agree to disagreeable" point. You are simply not correct. Say we are playing a game headsup with numbers. Each player is dealt a number 1-100. There is a blind bet, and you are not in the blind. You have a choice to call the blind bet or fold. The blind player then has the choice to raise or not. If he does not, then you simply showdown and whoever has the higher number wins both bets. If he raises, then you can call or fold. If you call, then you showdown and whoever has the higher number wins all four bets.

You are dealt 99. You know that your opponent only raises when he has 100. What should you do?

You should call. You will have your opponent beaten 98% of the time. Yet, when he raises, you should fold. This is a situation where you are clearly correct to enter the pot, knowing that you will fold to a raise.

Now let's make it less absurd (though the example above alone proves me correct and you wrong). Say you have 80. Your opponent will raise 76-100. What should you do? Again, you should call and fold to a raise. Why? Because 75% of the time, you will call, your opponent will check, and you will win. The other 25% of the time, you will call, and your opponent will raise. Given that your opponent has raised, he will have you beaten 4/5 of the time (81-100 has you beaten, and you only beat 76-79). Thus, you'd need 4-1 on your call to make money. You only get 3-1 on your call. So you should fold.

But you clearly should call in the first place, as even folding to a raise, you win one bet 75% of the time and lose one bet 25% of the time which is clearly more profitable than simply folding in the first place.

[Homer]

majorkong theorize good. homer listen to majorkong now.

-- Homer

[Franchise (TTT)]

I think it's either a close fold (if you read is dead on, and he only has a group 1-2 hand), or it's a not-close call (if he's raising with two high cards, middle pairs, etc...).

In these situations, without concrete information, I'll take the side that's not-close. Hence, I'll call.

By the way, majorkong's model is off some because starting hands change immensely in relative value from preflop to postflop. I think it's worth seeing a flop unless you're absolutely certain you're dominated or against a large pair.

It's different from calling an EP raise in the BB with KJo because you have position the rest of the hand... I think that swings it closer to a call.

[Ed Miller]

By the way, majorkong's model is off some because starting hands change immensely in relative value from preflop to postflop.

That is correct. Another important point is your postflop EV. Say you know that your opponent has AA-JJ or AK. You are better off with 44 than with KJ. Both hands might come in somewhere around 80 on my scale, but you will perform better after the flop with 44 than with KJ.

To be clear, I'm not arguing for a call or fold in this thread in Homer's situation. I was just disputing Lost Wages's claim that if you wouldn't call a raise, you shouldn't have limped in the first place.

[rkiray]

I would have replied, but majorkong already gave my answer. I believe S&M have a good point where they say even if it's -EV to call, you are inviting players to run over you when you fold for one bet when you've already put one in.

[ResidentParanoid]

I suppose I don't like my call very much, but I'll usually make it under fire. Unless I hit something very favorable, I'm going away on the flop.

If AA, KK, QQ, and AK are the only hands he'll raise in the BB with, then I guess you are in bad shape on the call. But against 2 players, wouldn't raises with JJ, TT and other pairs be possible? I guess it depends on my read on the player. If he's really selective in raising here, then a fold may be best.

[ElSapo]

For those of you who selected Call, what was your rationale?

Assuming the button comes along, I'm getting 5-1 on my call. I think there are a lot of hands the BB can raise with - depending on the player and game, virtually any pocker pair - that you can be good against. With the weakness shown by you and then button, I think it's going way too far to assume the BB has a hand you are dominated by. I'm not saying he doesn't but I think many times he'll show up with a smaller pocket pair, or some other hand you have good chances against.

And even if you are up against AK from the BB, 5-1 is still odds to call, though I realize that doesn't take into account the button, which we've all but forgotten about.

Yes, the raise makes the hand harder to play. But you have the odds to call and there is a broad range of hands the BB could have. I don't think folding is correct here, without a reliable and specific read on the player.

Give the BB AKs, the button 99 and you've got KJ. Twodimes has you winning almost exactly 20%. Call. Call, but play well post-flop.

[Nottom]

I'm not sure why I selected call, I guess thats why I would never limp with KJ in that position. I've really started to subscribe to the never open-limp from MP school of thought so if I did limp I would plan on calling a raise.

Also, if I were the BB and saw you limp I would smell weakness and raise with a lot of hands I normally wouldn't from the Blind (any 2 over T, Any big suited, most any pocket pair).

If I ever saw you fold to this raise, I would be much more likely to try again. I think this reason is the main reason I make the call. If the Blind is a super-rock that wouldn't try to make a play here and would only raise with a monster here and wouldn't think twice abou tyou folding, then folding is fine.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Well, my caveat is that I'm probably going to muck KJo with 7 people left to act after me most of the time (especially with a TAP in the BB) so I won't ever be in this situation to start with. But *if* I limped I pay the one more sb to see if I could flop a monster or at least a solid draw.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your table in the challenge was loose-passive?? I can barely remember 3 hands at mine where it wasn't raised preflop. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Homer]

Those of you who favor calling present valid points:

1) My open-limp from MP may seem weak, so he may be raising with a wider range of hands than he usually would from the BB.

- I don't know why everyone thinks it is wrong to open-limp from 3 or 4 off the button in a loose game. When you have no chance to steal the blinds, the late position players will coldcall with a fairly wide range of hands, and you have a hand that is above average but not strong enough that you want to be putting multiple bets in preflop, what's wrong with limping?

- My description of BB wasn't very good. He was tight-aggressive, but in a newbie sort of way. I don't think he realized that raising out of blinds could be correct with hands other than QQ/KK/AA/AK.

2) If I open-limp, then fold for one more bet, I'm inviting people to take shots at me.

- This is a valid point. However, in the games I play in, I'm wondering if this is applicable. I'm pretty sure no one's paying attention.

-- Homer

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
- My description of BB wasn't very good. He was tight-aggressive, but in a newbie sort of way. I don't think he realized that raising out of blinds could be correct with hands other than QQ/KK/AA/AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your read on the BB then I don't have a big problem with the fold, as long as you don't make a habit of it, and you are correct that most people aren't going to take much notice of the fold in most online games. There are so many people that post in MP and fold that many players won't even notice it as odd.

[XPac]

I'm relatively new to the game, but I was always told that you shouldn't limp with a hand that you aren't willing to call at least one additional bet with. Although this logic may be simplistic, I tend to follow it almost all the time.

[Bob T.]

- My description of BB wasn't very good. He was tight-aggressive, but in a newbie sort of way. I don't think he realized that raising out of blinds could be correct with hands other than QQ/KK/AA/AK.


If you are confident of your read, then your fold is OK. There certainly are players that fit that description. I used to be one. /images/graemlins/grin.gif When you described him as tight aggressive, I thought that that might be a player who would raise out of that situation with suited hands like KT, QJ, JT, which I want to play against.

[Inthacup]

Homer, I posted a similar hand in the Mid-High stakes forum. Feel free to compare it with the replies from the SS forum.


KJun in the SB (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=367165 &Forum=mediumholdem&Words=Inthacup&Match=Username& Searchpage=0&Limit=50&Old=1month&Main=367165&Searc h=true#Post367165)

[Joe Tall]

I did read majorkong, phenominal post. But I am unable to answer you poll due to the fact that I still raise or fold preflop depending on my image.

Peace,
JT

[Joe Tall]

Thank you for a phenominal post. I learned a lot.

Peace,
JT