The Pied Piper Bet in NL

[spoody]

I was thinking about how many times I have moved all in with a very good hand, only to be called by the nuts (or just a better hand). Top 2 being cracked by trips is a good example. After reading quite a few posts in the NL and the Tourney section on people moving all in or making a huge bet only to get beat, I was hoping to elicit some good discussion on the proper bet size when you have a good hand in NL.

I am talking about the kind of hand that you want some callers (the worse hands) but dont want to double up the dude with the nuts...or you know you are commited no matter what and want to maximize the pot, but still icrease your odds of winning. Top 2 pair, top pair, hands like that. I realize preflop action has a ton to do with this, but there should still be some general thoughts on the amount to bet when you have a nice hand, and wouldnt mind a caller with middle pair or top pair, but would like to rid yourself of a flush draw, two overcards when you have a lower top pair..things like that.

I have heard both Howard Lederer and Danniel N. refer to this kind of post-flop bet...both of their examples were tourney hands where they knew they were not going to get away from the hand no matter what. But the stratagy of maximizing your winning pots seems to be lost on newer NL players who seem anxious to shove it all in the minute things look pretty good.

So any general thoughts on betting in NL to encourage the callers you want but discourage the callers you dont want? Is this where a pot sized bet is about the right amount? With a possible flush draw against you, it seems you might still be betting to little? With just a pair but not against a flush draw, Howard suggested making a 1/3 pot sized bet to encourage bad calls - again this is a hand he was not going to get away from, but shouldnt this sized bet work sometimes when you still could get away from the hand...or are you just setting yourself up to be bluffed then? (HL specifically metions that he would NOT get bluffed off of this hand no matter what.)

If this is too general, i apologize. Just trying to learn when to NOT move all in and actually play some advanced NL poker.

Spoody

[Zag]

Of course, it depends on a lot of things. But to start with, let's take the case where you are heads up and you have top 2 on the flop, and there is a flush draw possible. You are not too afraid of a call, but you certainly don't want to give away a cheap draw.

First off, you shouldn't think of this as wanting to drive the flush draw away, you should think of it as wanting to make sure it is a mistake for the flush draw to call. Anytime he makes a mistake, it is good for you, even though you might sometimes lose when he calls.

Even though it seems we have narrowed the case down pretty thinly, there are still more things to consider: position and money depth. If the money is shallow -- i.e. your next bet will put one or both of you all in (or nearly so) then the draw is actually in better shape. He will be putting his money in with 2 cards to come. In that case, you are a little worse than 2 to 1 ahead. (I am assuming he also has one overcard.)

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=Kh+Qh+6c&d=&h=Ah+4h%0D%0Aks+qd

So, if you are making a pot-sized bet, he has odds to call in this scenario. Therefore, if the cap on the bet (i.e. the smaller of the two stacks) is less than, say, one and a half the pot, you should push in.

If you are much deeper, than you only need to consider the odds on the next card, because he knows you are going to make another bet on the turn, and he will be a much bigger dog with only one card to come than with two. If you have two "tempos" (i.e. ability to make a pot-sized bet) then you can afford to bet less. His odds of making the flush on the next card are 8 or 9 in 45, depending on whether or not you hold one of his outs. (You can't hold two and have two pair.)

Therefore, if you hold none, your bare minimum bet should be 1/3 of the pot, so that he would be getting 4 to 1 on a call. (His chances are 9/45 = 1/5, so his odds are 4 to 1.) Since you want him to be making a mistake to call, you actually want to bet some amount more than that, but definitiely don't bet less.

Of course, so far we have assumed that you know he has a flush draw, which, of course, is not the case. If you knew, for example, that he has middle pair and a kicker lower than the top card, you would certainly check and hope that he makes two pair. Along with this assumption, we have assumed that you would fold if the flush gets there on the turn. Without this fold, he has implied odds -- if you plan to call down a bet on a flush turn, then bet a lot more on the flop or he is, once again, making a correct call. (The amount is something like the pot size and depends on the stack size, but I've run out of time to calculate it.)

Also, you have to be aware of position and how tricky he is. If it is possible, for instance, that he is really on a straight draw, but he is tricky enough to bet when the flush gets there, then he has more ways to win (assuming you were going to lay it down to the flush). If you have position, then you ameliorate this somewhat, because he can't be sure you weren't betting the flush draw on the come, so would have a tougher time making the flush bluff. (You would, of course, bet the nut flush draw some of the time, right? And that bet should be the same amount as this one.)

Anyway, I hope this rambling helped you at least get an idea of what to think about. I know it helped me to write it all down. Good luck!

[tewall]

Zag brought up some issues, and I'll bring some others. You're asking good questions, and the answers are extremely complicated (poker is hard).

First of all, if the money is shallow, your really don't have a problem. You can't get away from a hand like two pair, so all the money's going in and there's many different ways that can happen.

If the money is deep, you'd like to make money with a hand like 2 pair but be able to get away from you hand. In this situation a pot sized bet is reasonable. A pot-sized bet represents a legitamate hand. With a bluff or a really good hand you might play some other way, like over betting the pot or check raising. It could be a mistake to play a hand like 2 pair this way because 2 pair is not any better against the hands you are afraid of than a pair. So if you made a very large bet, you'd only be called by hands that could beat you anyway. So unless you're opponent were reckless, you wouldn't make a large bet with deep money with a hand like 2 pair. Make a normal bet (e.g. 1/2 pot with a raggy board, full pot with a drawing board) and guage your opponent's response. There's no way to get away from having to know your opponent, but making a pot-sized bet should allow you to gauge where you are and you can still get away from your hand if you think you'er beat.

Regarding maximizing your pots, it depends on whether you want to be called or have the other guy fold. Once again you need to know your opponent's tendencies, as well as the stack sizes and relation to the pot. Against an overly tight opponent you might try calling on the flop and making a move on the turn, knowing he'll fold without the nuts (which he probably won't have). When you want to be called, you would try to plan things in a way that you can get the maximum amount of money in and still get called. This is difficult to do, as your opponent is watching you and trying to figure out what you're up to too.

One last thought is the good players will consider how to make a bet that will make it so their opponent will be pot committed and still have insufficient odds to call. Fossilman's (I hope I spelled that right) posts often discuss this concept. One of his most recent posts has an example of that.

And a final last, last thought is that it's important to vary your play. So after you've come up with a strategy on how to play your hands, it's not something you'd do 100% of the time.

And a final, final, last, last, last thought is to make a mental note of the times when your opponent has made a bet that is really putting you through the ringer. I mean you just don't know what to do. The chances are, that's a pretty good bet, and by recognizing the circumstances you can try to make that bet yourself.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
And a final, final, last, last, last thought is to make a mental note of the times when your opponent has made a bet that is really putting you through the ringer. I mean you just don't know what to do. The chances are, that's a pretty good bet, and by recognizing the circumstances you can try to make that bet yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. But it is often a sign that you have made a mistake. At the very least, you made a mistake in planning that you did not anticipate your opponent doing the very thing that he just did. Before you make an action in which you commit a significant number of chips, you should plan what you are going to do for each of your opponent's possible responses.

When you see that there is a possible response that will leave you stymied, then maybe you should rethink the action in the first place.

[tewall]

Right. The post just a couple of days ago where the fellow bet on 4th street only to be check-raised illustrates that point.