folding aces

[creedofhubris]

Hi, first time posting here. Still making a lot of mistakes in play, so I'm hoping for some tips.

I'm playing a game of fairly loose 5/10 poker at pokerroom. I'm in the SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG bets, solid player in MP raises, two call the raise, I make it three bets, BB folds, UTG calls. Five players in at 3 bets. Flop comes 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I bet, everyone calls. (An error here, should've check-raised.)

But the play I'm looking for comments on is on the turn, which comes 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Now there are three spades, and four to a straight. I check (should I have bet here?), UTG checks, the initial raiser bets, two calls after him. It gets to me.

Now, at this point, if I'm doing the math right after the fact, there are 8.5 BB in the pot. Odds to call are big. I thought about it for a minute. I was pretty sure I had the initial raiser beat, since I put him on a big pocket pair, or maybe AK with a spade. The other two worried me, and there was the possibility of a check-raise from UTG. Another spade killed my hand for sure, and anyone who didn't already have me beat might improve on the river, while I had one out.

I folded my aces. On reflection, I think it was a very poor move, but I'm looking for feedback. What do you think are the odds that I'm beaten on this hand?

In hindsight, with the pot as big as it was, I'm fairly sure that I should have stayed in for one BB (and one more on the river), getting at least 4.5:1 for my bets.

[John J]

I have a feeling you're going to get a lot of reponses here telling you how wrong your fold was on the turn. And they will be right. You can't check here and let someone get off with a free draw. Plenty of worse hands, including any overpair, would call you with this board, not to mention bet into you if you check. The move here was betting. I also agree with your "should have check-raised" on the flop.

[Brian]

Hi Creed,

I would have Bet the Turn here and re-examined where I was at if I were raised, depending on which player raised. If UTG raises, you can probably Fold. But I definitely agree with JohnJ here that you can't check and allow the possibility of freecards, or allow someone to take the pot from you.

I'll let others elaborate.

-Brian

[creedofhubris]

Ordinarily I'm much more aggressive. I just didn't like the two-ways-I'm-beat. Also, I was getting tired, and it was affecting my play. That hand is one reason I stopped playing for the night.

I did some more thinking, after the fact. The thing that concerned me was the number of callers. I'm going to say that there's a 10% chance that the initial bettor has me beat on the turn (A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, TT). There's a 20% chance that each of the callers has me beat (are these assumptions too generous?). Let's ignore UTG's chance of having me beat and planning to check-raise, that's clearly foolish thinking. That puts me at about 57% of having the winning hand on the turn.

Now, on the river. /images/graemlins/spade.gifs kill my hand, that's ten cards. Let's say there's another five cards that wipe me out. That's 15/46, one in three. So my chance of winning the hand is now .57 x 2/3 = .38 But I'm not going to bet the river when a /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits, so I save there. (Should I call on the river even if a /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits?) Let's assume I don't:

No /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits, I win: ~+10BB (.38)= 3.8
No /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits, I lose: -2BB (.41)=-.82
/images/graemlins/spade.gif hits, fold on river= -1BB (.21) = -.21

net gain from not folding on the turn: 2.77BB

Wow, I must seem like a total idiot. Good thing I stopped playing if I was making terrible calls like this.

[GuyOnTilt]

I've never played at pokerroom, so I don't know what the typical player there plays like. However, in my normal game I would bet the turn and fold to a raise from any of the preflop cold-callers. The board is very coordinated and you don't have a redraw against any reasonable hand that would raise you. In a shorthanded pot, it would be different, but given the number of opponents you're against, I don't think I would call a raise, since I'd also have to call a bet on the river if I did.

[creedofhubris]

In case anyone was wondering: after I fold, UTG folds. River is a blank. Check, check, bet, and two calls.

Bettor shows down a pair of nines for the straight.

If my aces had been good, it would have been blindingly obvious what a bad play it was laying them down. Since they weren't, I figured it was worth asking.

[ElSapo]

I'd worry less about the spade than someone having a 9.

But still, you have to bet the turn. Bet out and maybe fold to a raise; definitely fold to a raise and a call of the raise depending on the action.

I like the checkraise you didn't do. Next time. Strong play, to get drawing players facing two bets.