AK post flop question

[John J]

1/2 on Party

In the small blind I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Three people limp, I raise, they all call.

Flop is 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

What's the move here?

[banditbdl]

I usually bet out when the flop is this junky. If there are Js or Qs out there I'm less likely to bet. If I get more than one caller on the flop and the turn is a blank I'm likely to check and probably fold. If my bet gets raised my play afterwards is highly dependent on what I know about the raiser.

[John J]

If you bet out and one player called you, would you bet again if you missed on 4th?

[Brian]

Hi JohnJ,

I can see arguments for either checking or betting here. Against this many opponents (is it 3 or 4? I assume the Big Blind didn't come along since you didn't state otherwise), you are going to get called often enough to make semi-bluffing here not worthwhile. However, if you are going to call a bet anyways, you may as well Bet yourself. If you aren't raised then you can be pretty sure that both of your overcard outs are good. However, if you check your opponents may check it through fearing that you are going to check-raise. I think it's a judgment call based on your table and your table image. If checking won't let you see the Turn for free very often, then just go ahead and Bet it. Definitely Fold if you are raised, though.

If you don't improve on the Turn (gutshot draw or A,K), then I would check-fold. If you hit the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I would Bet and see what happens.

-Brian

[banditbdl]

Sometimes I fire again against one player on 4th unimproved, sometimes I don't. I will if I think my opponent is one who would be calling with something like KQ or AJ (you'll get a lot of these at 1/2 PP) or if I think there's a reasonable chance I can buy the pot from them if I keep the aggression going. I think you win more from the first case then the 2nd in games like this, but I could be completely wrong.

[Sarge85]

Bet the Flop

See what happens, re-evaluate the turn

Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Homer]

Check-fold. The flop completely missed you, a bet will not cause three opponents to fold most of the time, and you don't have proper odds to check-call (at most you have 6 outs, possibly 4 if someone's one a flush draw, and maybe even less as an A or K could give someone 2-pair). In tight games betting is more reasonable, as you might get hands like middle and bottom pair to fold, but in a typical low limit game people will call to the river with any made hand. BTW, against two opponents I might bet and against one I definitely would bet.

I am guessing that most posters are going to advise that you bet the flop, but I think that is wrong, and if you routinely do this when you have AK and the flop completely misses you, you are going to lose a lot of money.

-- Homer

[Brian]

Hey Homer,

Depending on the number of players and how scary the board is, I will sometimes check and fold on the Flop with AK. However, I don't think this one is quite scary enough to check and fold. You say our hero is not getting enough odds to check and call on the Flop; there will be at least 10sb's in the pot if someone bets when he checks, so even if only 2 of the Aces and 2 of the Kings are good, he has the odds to call here. However, I think that's being a little pessimistic, as sometimes the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif will be good. Not to mention, he can pick up a gutshot on the Turn. Okay, not the most exciting of prospects, but it counts /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I agree with you 100% that always betting the Flop with AK after you have raised from the blinds or early position can cost you a lot of money. And I think that this is basically the bottom of the barrel as far as calling or folding goes. But beyond the odds and yadda yadda yadda, I want my opponents to know that I will almost always Bet the Flop after I have raised pre-Flop. I want them to fear me. Is he betting with overcards again? Or is it a high pocket pair? Or did he make a set with TT?

I agree with you that against this many opponents you can't really call betting a semi-bluff here. Someone is going to call. But if you are calling a bet here, I think that betting yourself is better. That will help you distinguish whether or not your overcard outs are good.

I think overall it is pretty close and I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for checking and folding here. But for *my* game, *my* image, and *my* style, I like to Bet. /images/graemlins/smile.gif But if I were a weak-tight player like you then yeah of course I would check and fold /images/graemlins/wink.gif Hehe JK bud.

-Brian

[John J]

Brian you bring up a good point, pot odds. Assuming all the A's and K's are good, I have 6 outs with 47 cards left to come. 41/6 is 6.8:1. Using this logic, if there are at least 7 sb's in the pot then I should bet and/or call a bet on the flop with AK, correct?

[Joe Tall]

I'd check/call this flop vs. 3 opponents. Hopefully they think you are being tricky and check it through.

If the flop was a complete rainbow, I'd bet.

Peace,
JT

[MaxPower]

Seems to me that he does have the odds to check and call. There are 9 sb in the pot and he has 6 outs, that's about 7:1 right? Even if he has 4 outs he can call one bet.

Given that, I would usually bet even against 3 players. I would not bet if I were sure there was going to be a raise. Betting is better that check-calling for reasons which I'm sure you know.

I'm not saying you should always bet overcards, but in this situation I would.

[MaxPower]

Brian,

Good post.

You bring up an important point. Every so often, I come across an opponent who after raising pre-flop always bets when he has a pocket pair or makes a pair on the flop and always checks if he has unimproved overcards. This player is costing himself a lot of money, because I cam play almost perfectly against him. Even weak players will pick up on this pattern after a while.

So you have to bet your overcards sometimes. The number of opponents, type of flop, position, type of opponents, and size of pot are all things that you have to consider when determining whether to bet.

[Homer]

Yes, betting is certainly better than check-calling. I'm still not sure I would bet, though I do admit this is close to the border between betting and check-folding. If he checks, someone bets, there's a caller and the action's on him, he's getting 10:1 to call. With 6 outs, he has an easy call. With 4 outs, it's close, but is a call. With less than 4 outs, it's a fold. I suppose I'm thinking his outs are a little muddier than they really are (hey, give me a break, I was just reading Middle Limit Holdem Poker).

You guys have at least convinced me that it's not a clear-cut check-fold.

-- Homer

[Homer]

Brian, I often do bet unimproved overcards, but I didn't think that this is a situation in which doing so is best. However, you and Max have convinced me to at least rethink my stance.

Your point about having to bet overcards at times so as to not allow opponents to easily read you is a valid one. In my usual game, however, I believe that my opponents are, on average, braindead. As such, it isn't necessary to bet OC's in -EV situations, since I won't reap the benefits later on.

-- Homer

[Packerfan1]

Next time don't raise before the flop.

HPFAP has a great discussion on why not to with AK and QQ/JJ which I buy into completely.

That being said, if I'm in your spot while I know the correct move is to check-fold... but I'd probably convince myself to fire on the flop, which will get called in at least 2 places (unraised pot in 1/2, someones got a pair or diamonds or goofy gutshot whatever.. point is it missed you, it didnt miss everybody) then the turn will come where either I will either be forced to give up, losing $1 more than I should have, or maybe an A or K will pop off, where I'll bet again and now get raised by AT or KT or A8 or K5 or some other dandy 1/2 hand, which I'll be forced to pay off and then I'll lose $7 more that I should have.

Did I mention I should've check-folded?

Did I mention I rarely raise here anymore preflop against 3 or more players? Love that HPFAP!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif