Pair and Overcard...

[ropey]

In light of the recent discussion on having a pair with an overcard in a multiway pot, I decided to post an intersting hand that I was involved in some time ago.

4-8 Hold em
I was in middle position with A 10 in a fairly passive game. I was raising a bit more because I could limit the pot to a small number of players (often heads up) and win the pot without hitting anything in many cases.

In this case, I raised and got the pot heads up with the BB like I wanted. The flop came K 10 4 (suits not important). And the big blind bet right into me. He was a player that was fairly easy to read, and I was sure I was up against a pair of Kings.

Normally I would muck this hand without even thinking about it, but I decided to play the hand (out of frustration-bad night I suppose).

Well, if you are going to play this hand at all, I think you have to raise because of position...I figured my opponent for K X and was fairly certain I would get a free card by raising (remember I raised preflop too).

My opponent checked the turn as I had planned, and I saw the river for 'free'. River brought me a beautiful 10, and my opponent (not wanting to miss another bet with his Kings) bet into me...I raised, he called, I drug.

Is this a good/bad play if you can assume the following:

1. you are sure you are up against a pair of Kings
2. you are sure you will be able to get the free card

Comments appreciated,
-ropey

[J.R.]

There are less 5.5 small bets in the pot (your 2 pre-flop, big blinds 2 pre-flop, the small blind and the big blind's flop bet, minus the rake).

If you are sure you opponent has a K, and it is not AK or KT, you have 5 outs. If you are sure you get a free card, you have five outs on both the flop and the turn.

Right now you are investing 2 small bets into a pot with 5.5 small bets (but the big blind will call on the flop, so you are risking 2 small bets to win 6.5 small bets, and assuming the big blind pays you off on the river, you will win another 2 small bets. If you hit on the turn and can collect bets on the turn and river, this becomes a more profitable play).

You are 5/47 + 5/46 to improve, or about 1-3.6. You are risking 2 to win 6.5, so you lose money unless you know that the big blind will pay you off, in which case you are risking 2 to win 8.5 and have a profitable overlay.

However, given you don't know the big blind's kicker, you may end up losing bets if he has two pair or imporves on the turn or river.

If you are sure he has a K and only a K, you will get a free card, he will pay you off and he won't improve than this is a profitable play, but this does assume a lot. This also assumes you cannot bluff your opponent off a better hand.

[Festus22]

"1. you are sure you are up against a pair of Kings
2. you are sure you will be able to get the free card"

If this is the case, you can't be sure he'll bet the turn or river if the ace hits. Since your flop raise is based on the implied odds of a future payoff, 3 of your outs may be dead. I don't think your play is +EV here.

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
you may end up losing bets if he has two pair or imporves on the turn or river.


[/ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that the only way I even call the river is if I improve...and my two pair will beat his if this happens. So I really don't care if he improves to two pair. If he improves to trips, I am in trouble; but since I know he has a King, this is an easy fold if another King joins the board.

-ropey

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
you can't be sure he'll bet the turn or river if the ace hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point and one that is difficult to factor in...I don't need him to bet it, I only need him to call it, which he may or may not do.

-ropey

[Homer]

Nice post JR.

-- Homer

[J.R.]

Yeah I know, my bad for not being precise. My general point was there is some small chance that when you improve, your opponent improves as well, and given the ev is close on this hand, its worth mentioning/considering, especially since you will lose multiple bets when this situation arises.

[ropey]

Before I thought about this, I didn't even think it would be close...I usually muck in this situation if I know I'm beat to a higher pair, but after doing some calculations, I think it may be better to raise.

Of course, you do have to consider the situation, and the assumptions. The assumptions I made were very clear to me at the time, in the fact that I pegged him on a K x hand, and figured I could get a free card by raising. That being said:

Dead Money = 18 dollars (4 small bets and small blind)
If I raise the flop, I am investing 8 dollars, and getting back 34 dollars in profit - 18 + 2 big bets from my opponent, one on flop, and one on river).

With 5 outs, I will hit at least 1 out of 5 times. So, playing the hand 5 times, I should lose 8 dollars 4 times, and win 34 dollars once. 34 > 32

Now...this is assuming I collect at least one big bet when I improve. It is true that he MIGHT check and fold if an Ace hits...however, I think it is likely that he will call at least one big bet...Additionally, I have potential to make two big bets, and maybe 3.

In the situation I was in, I got a raise on the river when my 10 hit. If I hit on the turn and he check calls, thats 2 big bets...and least likely, I could potentially get a turn raise in and a bet on the river. Any of these scenarios and I easily cover my losses when I don't hit.

If a King comes, thats trouble, however, it is an easy fold if it does come, since I was sure that he had a King on the flop.

The dead money in the pot in my mind made it correct to continue post flop. And this is in a heads up pot.

With more players preflop, there is even more dead money...and more reason to continue this type of draw (depending on the board). All in all, I thought it was interesting that this could be positive expectation play. I'm still uncertain on what to do with a pair and an overcard...but it has certainly made me think about what to do with my A2s when I pair my 2.

-ropey

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
you may end up losing bets if he has two pair or imporves on the turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that the only way I even call the river is if I improve...and my two pair will beat his if this happens. So I really don't care if he improves to two pair. If he improves to trips, I am in trouble; but since I know he has a King, this is an easy fold if another King joins the board.

-ropey


[/ QUOTE ]

The only time this is really a problem is if he has exactly AK or KT or a set. You could also be in trouble if he would make a semi-bluff here with QJ. With the small pot I think I go ahead and fold, add in another preflop caller and I like your play a lot more.

[MaxPower]

You also have to have an opponent that won't reraise you on the flop. This works well against timid players who will not reraise the flop and will check-call the rest of the way.

J.R. is correct, but you need to excercise judgement and it will cost you if you are wrong about your opponent. I use this play a lot when the pot is a little larger.

Also, I think you are better off when the top card on the flop is lower than a queen.