A pre-flop cold call...

[bdypdx]

This is a hand from a 3/6 game in a Reno casino. The game was loose and moderately aggressive. Maybe even tough at times. Most of the games had broken down and this table consisted of everyone who wanted to continue playing until whenever.

I'm on the button. I have Ah6h. 4 limpers, MP, who habitually raises preflop, raises, 1 cold call in LMP and I also cold call the raise. SB completes, the other limpers call.

Flop is 8c 6s 3d. Checked to the MP raiser who bets. LMP calls, I fold. Blinds call and 1 EMP also calls.

Turn is 6c.
River is Ad.

Turned out that the SB, EMP and the MP raiser all had x8 and chopped the pot!

My first question regards my preflop cold call. The MP preflop raiser was repeatedly raising preflop with a *wide* variety of hole cards. He liked raising preflop for whatever his reasons. So, this was a very rare preflop cold call for me. Mistake to cold call here? My rationale for calling in this spot was entirely based on observation of the raiser's previous behaviour.

My second question is as to whether my flop fold was correct? In hindsight, I really think I screwed up here. I had middle pair and a good kicker, so I really think I should have seen the turn. Yes or no?

Thanks.

[Max Weinberg]

The pre-flop call is kind of borderline, but I don't think it's a huge mistake or anything. You shouldn't lose any sleep over it. The huge mistake, comparatively speaking, is when you fold on the flop getting 17:1 on your five-outer. That's a Sklanskian "crime against humanity" right there.

If you routinely make folds like this on the flop you should probably brush up on your knowledge of pot odds. It's probably better for you in this case that the board went runner-runner boat for your mucked hand, because it exposed a major leak that is completely fixable.

[Lost Wages]

The preflop coldcall was a mistake. It really doesn't matter that MP has low raising standards. I assume he will raise his good hands as well. You can't be calling 2 bets with A6s and expect to show a profit.

On the flop you made a huge error. You have 2nd pair with an ace overcard. The board is 8 high and rainbow and the pot is large. You may very well have the best hand. You should have raised the flop.

Lost Wages

[Nottom]

I'd call the pre-flop raise about 90% of the time here. There are already 6 people in the pot and the blinds might come along as well. If there were ever a time to be cold-calling raises, I think this is it.

Flop fold is awful as others have pointed out.

[Lost Wages]

You may be right, though I'm not liking my hand much if I don't flop a flush draw. I think you would have to be able to significantly outplay your opponents postflop to show any profit here.

Lost Wages

[Nottom]

Aye, like not throwing your hand away when it may be best.

[James282]

You have 9 people on the flop if I read that correctly. At two SBs a piece, you have 18 small bets in the pot on the flop. Your relative outs might seem fairly slim here, but you have 5 tenative outs and 3 pretty clean outs. The two tenative ones are, of course, the 6 and A of clubs, but if you get either of those you still have to hold on.

If you have 5 outs here, the odds of making aces up or better are 9.4-1, and if you have 3, the odds are 15.67-1...but the pot is offering you 20-1 with implied odds well above that! I can't begin to describe how much money you are losing by folding in this situation. If you called, and hit your 6 of clubs, there are now 12.5 BB in the pot, and you are getting 14.5-1 if MP bets and MLP calls again...if are behind, you still have a 4 outer and are STILL getting the correct odds to call to what is likely the nuts...and you have at least a 50% chance of having the best hand straight up! If you are going to call two cold with A6s nine-handed with a raise preflop, you are never folding for one bet if you catch any of the flop.
-James


P.S. Raising the flop here is a huge mistake. There is almost no chance you are going to have the best hand when it is 9 handed on this flop.

[Huh]

I disagree with most regarding you're pre-flop action. I think it's just dandy. You're getting about seven to one, and flush draws aren't the only flop you'll like. Sure, putting a big bet up in the beginning isn't ideal, but otoh, the pot is big, people are tied to it, and they are likely to go way to far with hands post-flop.

On the flop, you can't fold. I would opt to just call here, but I think there are some good arguments for raising.

BTW)Second pair with an overcard kicker often warrants a call or a raise in a medieumish-plus sized pot. As always, it depends on all that stuff that it depends on.

-Huh

[James282]

I didn't mean to say the "nuts" in the second part of my post, I meant to say "best hand". Also, if you get the 6 of clubs, you don't have 4 outs to beat a made flush on the river, you have 7(the other 3s are now outs). Instead of needing ~ 11.5:1 you now only need about 8.5:1..and you are getting well above this even if the hand is heads up on the turn against the original bettor.

Also, the games that a lot of mid-high stakes players are in require you to never, ever cold-call two preflop..but in this situation where you are against a definite 6 opponents and likely 7-8, a cold-call is the only correct play. I would love to see a flop in this sort of pot with position, pot-odds, and almost guaranteed action.
-James

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
and flush draws aren't the only flop you'll like.

[/ QUOTE ]
Aside from flopping two pair, I can't think of any other good flops with this holding. I would rather not hit the Ace here. I don't like the cold call.

After the flop, you are not sitting as bad as it may seem. A pair with an overcard (especially Ace) is not a bad thing...you probably need to improve to win, however, you certainly have the pot odds to do so.

-ropey

[Homer]

This post should be titled "a flop fold" instead of "a pre-flop coldcall".

Preflop - Coldcalling here is fine with 6-7 opponents.

Flop - Raising is the best play, followed by calling, then folding. There are 18 small bets in the pot when the action gets to you. You have middle pair and an overcard on a rainbow, uncoordinated board. You are getting way more than you need to call for your 5-outer, so you should at least do that. There is also the distinct possibility that you are ahead. The preflop raiser could easily have only overcards, and LP's coldcall doesn't mean anything, as he would be correct to call with a wide range of holdings in a pot this large. You must raise to knock out random overcard holdings to increase your chances of taking down an already large pot.

-- Homer

[Homer]

P.S. Raising the flop here is a huge mistake. There is almost no chance you are going to have the best hand when it is 9 handed on this flop.

James, I believe raising the flop is the best play, and that it's not very close. Hopefully others will chime in.

-- Homer

[ropey]

With the board being so uncoordinated, it is likely that a flop raise will be effective at moving some people out of this pot. But I'm torn between calling and raising the flop, but this is a situation where you definatly do not want to go anywhere.

If you don't have the best hand, you need an Ace or a 6 to win...and if you do improve to either one of these hands, it seems to me that it would be very difficult to lose given the board. So if you raise, you may move many opponents, but do you really care if they stay? Unless this board comes runner runner flush, or somebody catches runner runner for a higher aces up, I think your hand will be good.

If you think you need to improve to win (if you think somebody has an 8), then improving your hand will only generally make someone a second best hand (AK, AQ, A3, 8x, or trip 6's with lower kicker)...maybe it would be better to just call. Raising will only drive out these second best hands.

However, there is a good likelyhood (as many have stated) that you do have the best hand. And if you think this is the case, then you should raise to drive out as many players as you can.

Just some things to think about.

-ropey

[James282]

Ropey hit on exactly why raising is a huge mistake. You need to improve to win this hand. In a game where 9 players are seeing the flop, you will never, ever drive out someone with an 8 in this situation. It will never drive out a pocket pair that beats you besides MAYBE 77. 3 of the 47 unseen cards are 8s. 16 cards besides your own saw the flop, and I believe it is safe to say someone has better than a pair of sixes on this flop almost every single time. You will never win this pot with a pair of sixes and an ace kicker. Are you afraid of somebody catching up? Are you value betting your draw? Think about why you would ever, ever raise this weak draw in this situation. You will only drive out second-best hands, and bet into better hands.

Someone else talked about "taking control of the hand." What you don't realize is, loose players with an 8 or an overpair will often 3 bet you in this situation. Would you re-raise if you got 3-bet because of the same reasons you raised originally? Maybe if you cold-called in a good game with thinking players, you could raise and feign a made set and get your desired results. In a loose game, a raise does not automatically mean that you will simply get called(especially since you showed weakness preflop)...you are talking about what a raise would do in the best possible circumstances..you might get an 8 out of the hand, you might get 77 to fold..but the likelihood that you will get three-bet and the great improbability of making a better hand fold in this pot makes this an easy call. If you want to reduce your pot odds in this situation by raising and then calling a potential three-bet, that is your decision.
-James

[brian0729]

I will give it a shot, Homer.

1. You may the best hand and have outs
2. You want to drive out overcards that are to act behind you and possibly get an 8 to fold
3. The raise probably will put you in control of the hand and make it easier to play the rest of the way.

Calling does neither 2 or 3

I may be off and am sure I have missed many but these stick out right away.

[Homer]

Ropey hit on exactly why raising is a huge mistake.

No he didn't. He presented reasons why raising and calling could be best.

You need to improve to win this hand.

What makes you think that middle-pair, top kicker will not be best here a good percentage of the time? All that happened on the flop is that the PFR bet and an LP player called. That's certainly not enough to make me think that my hand is not best a good percentage of the time.

In a game where 9 players are seeing the flop, you will never, ever drive out someone with an 8 in this situation.

True, but what makes you think someone has an 8?

16 cards besides your own saw the flop, and I believe it is safe to say someone has better than a pair of sixes on this flop almost every single time.

It isn't safe to say that, imo.

Are you afraid of somebody catching up?

I thought you said you were behind?

Are you value betting your draw?

Of course not.

Think about why you would ever, ever raise this weak draw in this situation.

The argument is not whether you would raise your draw, it is whether you are drawing or ahead.

You don't have to be ahead very often to make raising correct.

<font color="blue">Someone else please respond and tell either me or James what we are smoking.</font>

-- Homer

[Homer]

1. You may the best hand and have outs

Yes. Others contend there is no way you could have the best hand. What are your thoughts on this? Am I smoking something?

2. You want to drive out overcards that are to act behind you and possibly get an 8 to fold

Drive out overcards, yes. Get an 8 to fold, probably not, though you never know.

3. The raise probably will put you in control of the hand and make it easier to play the rest of the way.

This is an important point that I failed to mention. If the PFR three-bets, then you can fairly certain that he has a big pair and can play the rest of the hand accordingly (call the flop three-bet, call the turn bet, fold the river if you don't improve). If you just call the flop bet, then you are stuck calling the hand down, I believe. So, even if it does turn out that the PFR has an overpair, you aren't putting any more money into the pot by raising the flop, since you can safely lay your hand down on the river. Another benefit is that you can gain control of the hand, and can decide whether or not to bet the river based on your opponent's reaction to your flop raise and what cards come on the turn/river.

-- Homer

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
The argument is not whether you would raise your draw, it is whether you are drawing or ahead.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is really the issue...I haven't thought about enough to make a definitive answer to this, but it seems that if you could be sure you were behind, it may be best to call because if you improve, it will be very difficult to lose the hand.

However, if you think you are ahead, clearly raising is the correct way to play the hand.

James believes you are behind; and Homer is suggesting that you may have the best hand (if not, a large enough percentage of the time to merit a raise). Neither one of you seem to be smoking anything.

-ropey

[Nottom]

If you think a raise here is a mistake, I think you really need to brush off your HEFAP and read the section on playing in big pots. If the bettor flipped over KK and layed it on the table, I'm still going to raise this pot.

[Lost Wages]

James,

Raising is by far the best play. The pot is large and you have a reasonable chance of winning it so you must do whatever you can to maximize your chances. Risking 1 additional SB is a miniscule price to pay.

By just calling you are making it correct for others to call with just about any two cards e.g. a backdoor flush draw.

A secondary benefit of raising is that it may be checked to you on the turn and then you can take a free card if you wish or bet if you improve. If you only call the flop you are assured of having to call another bet on the turn.

Lost Wages

[James282]

Wow, a lot of responses really fast. You have convinced me that a raise is not a horrible play. I still believe calling is best..I said you are raising a draw because I believe that what will likely be 3rd or 4th pair by the river will not be good..and I definitely believe that a raise here is too aggressive. I read THFAP, and know that in large-multi way pots you need to increase your chances of winning the pot right there-I believe that raising does not increase your chances of winning since I think you are behind already, but if you hit your outs, you will be ahead. If you raised someone who turned over KK, you are insane.

That being said, it is not impossible that you are ahead here, of course. I agree that raising would be best if you believe you were only up against 8 people with overcards or backdoor flush draws, 2 of which have bet and called into you. If you had A8 I would raise every time, or an overpair, but middle pair just doesn't seem like it is going to bring it home. If I believed someone had an 8 or better(which I would in this case), a backdoor flush draw is the only thing I can really see pushing out..and this is not worth another small bet.

Honestly, I am not sure what % of the time you are ahead here. If you do hit your draw, your previously shown strength will only make people slow down, decreasing your implied odds significantly. If you miss your draw, you will likely be check-called by hands that might alreayd have you beat. I think that ropey makes a good point though, when he says that neither one of us are smoking /images/graemlins/smile.gif I was a little bit too passionaite about just how bad raising is..but I look at this hand like I would look at a gut-shot draw..I would want people to stay in and pay me off rather than driving out hands that would be second best if I hit. Looking for a free-card on the turn would be nice, but it would be even nicer to make them all pay two big-bets on the turn if one of my cards hit.
-James

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the flop bet, then you are stuck calling the hand down, I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
If the PFR three-bets, then you can fairly certain that he has a big pair and can play the rest of the hand accordingly (call the flop three-bet, call the turn bet, fold the river if you don't improve).

[/ QUOTE ]
Also very true.

I certainly see both arguments and it seems like a coin toss to me. However, I think I would rather just call here, and assume that somebody has an 8 (or an overpair). While it is true that you gain more information about what you are up against by raising, I think I would like to have overcards calling here. I think you could make more money by stringing along some callers when you need to improve your hand, and you will lose less when you are raising with the second best hand, driving out your callers (who you don't really care about; because once again, if you improve, it is very difficult to lose this hand).

Additionally, I am not sure how I would handle the turn if I did raise. Anyone with an 8 probably isn't going anywhere, and they certainly won't show any kind of aggression after you raise the flop; so although you gain more information, you still don't know if you are beat, and may wind up putting bets into the pot with your secondbest hand (of course, you would probably get to check through the river if you miss your 5 outs).

-ropey

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think a raise here is a mistake, I think you really need to brush off your HEFAP and read the section on playing in big pots. If the bettor flipped over KK and layed it on the table, I'm still going to raise this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a time to raise this pot, but if you know you are behind, I don't think that is one of them. You need a 6 or an Ace to win...when you improve, it is difficult to lose this hand. So all you are doing is driving out second best hands. Save your bet (even though it is a small bet) because I don't see how it accomplishes much of anything when you are behind. Yes, you do improve your chances of winning...anytime you can narrow the field you increase your chances...but not by much here, considering the runner runner scenarios that have to happen for you to lose.

-ropey

[Nottom]

This is a big pot and there are lots of hands you don't want hanging around even though they may be long shots to beat you should you improve.

Examples of such hands are bigger aces that could river a bigger two pair (a 6 outer against you if the ace hits the turn), any overcards with BD flush or straight potential, and small pocket pairs that are currently getting the right price to spike a set. The fact that you may very well have the best hand in this case only solidifies the need for a raise in this hand.

[MAxx]

I wouldnt have been in this pot to begin with. Cold calling a raise with A-6 suited is not a good play (in my opinion from any position). Wait till you get a better starting hand and then you can break off a little something for the guy who raises too often.... and then make him really pay.

If I did enter this hand, I would have stayed for at least the turn to see if I two paired or tripped. Generally, I think raising here on the flop would be the wrong play in no foldem holdem.

[Huh]

You are thinking of flops in terms of complete hands, which is bad. There are many equitable flops that can come from this hand. Enough to make calling two-cold correct. The flop that came down offered enough equity to make playing on profitable, I think that's important to understand. With a hand like this you can flop flush-draws, two-pair, trips, top-pair-top-kicker(Okay, this would be trouble), buzz-saws, radial-arm saws, etc. All which may be profitable in some ridiculous gigantor pot.


If you are playing suited aces thinking you need to hit the flush to win...well then you'll almost never have the odds. Getting there with the flush is about 11 to 1. It gets even worse when you subtract out the running flushes, and the times your flush loses. In addition, a flush draw is going to force you to invest more money in the pot and third card of a suit hitting the board will often freeze opponents up, limiting your profit. IMO, it's the other aspects of the hand that push it into profitable territory.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
you will never, ever drive out someone with an 8 in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you're unlikely to drive out someone w/ an 8. But it happens. Not much, though. Some players will muck something like 87 to a bet and raise here, though.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe it is safe to say someone has better than a pair of sixes on this flop almost every single time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your middle pair/top kicker will be best on a multi-way 368 flop much of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
You will never win this pot with a pair of sixes and an ace kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
You will sometimes. You will increase your chances of that significantly by raising and getting the blinds and other limpers out of the way.

[ QUOTE ]
You will only drive out second-best hands, and bet into better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
You will also drive out many hands that contain a 7,9,T,J,Q,K as well as hands like 65. You greatly increase your chance of winning this pot by getting those hands to fold on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you re-raise if you got 3-bet because of the same reasons you raised originally?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not. You're definitely not raising for value at that point and nobody is folding after calling 2 bets in that spot.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe if you cold-called in a good game with thinking players, you could raise and feign a made set and get your desired results.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nobody is going to fold a hand because they think you have a set in this spot, especially not when you raise on a ragged board like this. That's exactly why it's great to raise w/ a set in exactly this spot. Many will 3-bet you w/ top pair.

[Ulysses]

Easy call. You're going to have a suited Ace on the button in what is likely to be a family pot. I'd call most every time here. The times I didn't call, I'd raise (this would depend on a number of things such as my opponents, my image, etc.). But I'm definitely not folding here.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you would have to be able to significantly outplay your opponents postflop to show any profit here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Playing straightforwardly should be plenty fine w/ a suited Ace in this spot vs. 900 opponents.

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
There are many equitable flops that can come from this hand. Enough to make calling two-cold correct. The flop that came down offered enough equity to make playing on profitable,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true...some flops can come that make it correct to continue playing postflop. But investing two bets in attempt to flop a draw is hard to justify.

Flopping two pair, or trips, is quite a longshot. This adds very little appeal to play this hand for me. And flopping an ace in a raised multiway pot with a 6 kicker is a great way to lose money.

Yes, you might flop a draw that is 'correct' to continue with. But paying two cold to flop a draw, where you are likely behind, doesn't sound like a good idea to me. And adding in the almost negligable odds of flopping trips or two pair in this situation doesn't really change my mind about playing the hand.

You can flop an 'equitable flop' and still lose money due to a bad call in the first place. Getting yourself in an 'equitable' position via bad calls doesn't make the hand 'equitable'.

-ropey

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that what will likely be 3rd or 4th pair by the river will not be good

[/ QUOTE ]
How many players are likely to see the turn if you just call the flop? How many if you raise?

How is the turn likely to play out if you call? How about if you raise?

If the turn action is the same as the flop action and you don't improve your hand, which cards do you call on? Which cards do you fold on?

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that raising does not increase your chances of winning since I think you are behind already, but if you hit your outs, you will be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why are you so convinced you're behind? The pre-flop raiser bet, which he'll do with a lot of hands. Then someone called. You're going to be ahead here many times. And there are a lot of hands that will fold to a raise that could beat you when you both improve. For example, AJ in early position is likely to call a bet. Ace on the turn, Jack on the river. You lose. There are a lot of hands like that which you can get out with a flop raise, gutshot straight draws and backdoor flush draws among them.

[ QUOTE ]
If you raised someone who turned over KK, you are insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree and don't understand the rationale of the poster who made that statement.

[ QUOTE ]
but I look at this hand like I would look at a gut-shot draw..I would want people to stay in and pay me off rather than driving out hands that would be second best if I hit. Looking for a free-card on the turn would be nice, but it would be even nicer to make them all pay two big-bets on the turn if one of my cards hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note that w/ a gut-shot draw, you usually have just about nothing if you miss and if you hit your hand, it's much less prone to redraws than your hand here. Sure, if you hit two pair or trips on the turn, you'll make some more money by calling. But you need to think through all the scenarios (ie: my questions at the start of this post) in deciding the most profitable way to play this hand. When you consider all the options and outcomes, I think this is a pretty clear raise and I don't think it's very close.

[Huh]

Ahhh, I see the source of our disagreement. Okay...I think you crazy.

I'm leaving out all the backdoor flush draws, and all the crazy one card straight draws.

5.994898 % of the time you will flop Quads, A Full-House, Trips plus a back-door flush draw, two pair plus a back-door flush draw, Trips, Two-Pair, Pair plus a flush draw, or the nut flush.

In addition to that

11.11224 percent of the time you will flop a pair and a back-door flush draw.

In addition to that

9.260204 percent of the time you will flop just the nut flush draw, with no extra perks.

Oh yeah, and lets not forget about the 16.16326 percent of the time where you flop just a pair, like our hero did.

As a bonus, I think it's easy to get away from the other 57.46939 percent of the flops. When I'm getting seven to one, I think this is an easy investment. Next time do your own homework /images/graemlins/tongue.gif Just kidding.

[James282]

I am too lazy to find whoever wrote it, but they made a good point. This is not 20/40 at the taj, this is a 3/6 game in which 9 people felt comfortable entering the pot for 2 bets. In a pot of 9 people, obviously some aren't rational thinkers. I dont think overcards are folding here anyway, it's just a different texture than the games most of us are used to. Ulysses, you are a much better player than I am(I can tell just by your posts)...but I think it might be closer than you are giving it credit for...and I still lean towards call.
-James

[Ulysses]

James,

You make a reasonable point here, but I was definitely taking into account the fact that this is a loose 3-6 game. I've played tons of hours in the loosest, craziest 3-6 games imaginable. And even in those games, people fold a lot of stuff when they don't have much and it's two bets to them on the flop. Part of the reason is that they are worried about the initial guy re-raising.

[bdypdx]

So...I read all of your responses and some pertinent sections of HFAP before heading out to a nearby casino tonight...

In a good 3/6 game I found myself in a similar situation on the flop as in my original post. I had middle pair with a good kicker with multiple outs. Yesterday, I probably would have folded; tonight I raised. As I scooped up the chips, a player to my left was grumbling about how he folded to my raise with a hand that would have been better.

Thanks again.

bdy

[zamora]

i would certainly raise in this situation every time. getting overcards, higher aces, small pocket pairs and gutshots out must be a priority since the pot is starting to get pretty darn big.

but, i guess that i am a little weak, cause i would never cold call preflop (i would not raise either, i would fold 100% of the times). my thinking behind this is that im not sure that i would be able to release a hand that are stuck in this pot.

let say the flop falls A T 8 w one heart. one bet to me, i call and get three callers behind.
turn is a 7 off suit.

flop bettor bets. what do i do? what if someone behind me 3-bets the flop? could be a high ace but it could also be QJo.

should i fold to the turn bet since i fear a raise behind or should i keep drawing? will a 6, 9 or A be any good?

maybe not the best of examples but i hope you get the point. I don't think the skill level of an average player is high enough to turn these hands into profitable ones in this situation when facing a cold call preflop. the number of complex situations that could arise are simply to many.
the pots that i would win with a hand like this would probably not make up for the times when i screw up by making the wrong decissions post flop.

excellent post btw.

peace.

[Joe Tall]

This is one of the rare hands that I would cold call w/the number of limpers and position.

[ QUOTE ]
MP, who habitually raises preflop, raises

[/ QUOTE ]

+

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is 8c 6s 3d. Checked to the MP raiser who bets. LMP calls, I fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Make this and easy raise. If MP is on 'auto-bet' since he's the preflop raiser and is a loose-raise, I'd raise every time.

Peace,
JT

[Nottom]

Always good to see someone apply their newfound knowledge and win a pot they wouldn't have before.

[James282]

Ok, fair enough. I speak from less experience, and when the game was described as "loose and moderately aggressive", I figured it would be like some of the 2/4 and 3/6 I played at the Taj in the beginning of when I played...you know the type-"I'm going to cap it just because I know that guy is going to!". Especially in live games I always feel like people are just along to have a great time and run it down to the river in big pots like this..and most people will cross their fingers with any 8. My response might be a bit results oriented as well, I suppose, since the guy said 3 people chopped it with an 8, and the hero was in fact drawing. With 8 opponents I am just not confident enough to raise with this holding at these stakes, but perhaps that is a leak in my game /images/graemlins/smile.gif For some reason, I think I might be stuck at a point I read in super/system..in these games, you are going to have to show down the best hand to win, deception doesn't play a major role(decent paraphrase). This also might explain why I make more BB/hr at 10/20 than I do 3/6..and why I can beat shorthanded even more because I will play lesser holdings more confidently in order to win the pot..interesting thread altogether, though...and I have to say I concede /images/graemlins/smile.gif
-James

[ropey]

What was the situation, and what better hand did he fold?

-ropey

[ropey]

If you want to talk probability, we can talk probability; I am fairly knowledgable about it. However, a little logic will go a long way here.

But just looking at your numbers, you will basically flop a draw about 43% of the time, and then you are only going to hit that draw a fraction of the time...generally about 20%, but slightly more with a 4-flush.

So every time you play this it will cost you at least 2 small bets...and everytime you hit a draw, its going to cost you much more to attempt to complete your draw. I'm guessing you will complete your hand about 10% of the time (thats about 25% of the 43% you have a draw); not to mention that this doesn't even guarentee you a win...this assumes your two pair, trips, etc. will be good if you make it.

You did a good job of plugging your suited Ace into some poker odds program to come up with the 'math', but look at how much it will cost you to even attempt to complete your draws, that is the 4 times in 10 you actually have a draw.

You will have a lot of bets to make up the very small fraction of the time you make this hand. I don't think it is worth it. You have posted some numbers here, but the 'math' will only tell you so much.

-ropey

[lil']

I don't get into heavy math, but...

If four people limped to you on the button, you wouldn't think twice about limping in with A-6s on the button getting 5.5:1 odds.

In this situation, He is getting at least 6.5:1 odds on the call, or as much as 7 to 8 to 1 if one or both blinds come along. I fail to see why making this call is so difficult for some people, when they wouldn't think twice about doing it in the first situation I described.

[ropey]

There isn't really a need to get into heavy math...

Basically, I feel that it takes somewhat of a miracle flop to continue this hand...especially in a raised pot (where it will cost you a lot of money when you hit your ace).

Since you can't exactly play the ace (in my opinion) you are mainly hoping to hit a flush draw (or a miracle flop like trips or two pair). And flopping a draw will only get you partially there. Being on the button certainly helps, but this is a hand that I just stay away with in general.

But hey, people play this hand ALL the time...these are the reasons that I hate playing it. I just hate donating a bet to the pot when I have to muck it postflop a very large percentage of the time. It seems to me it will take huge pots when you do hit it to overcome all the times you miss.

-ropey

[lil']

But you would call in the first situation I described without hesitation. Why not the second? What's the difference, really? You can't go nuts with A-6 in the first scenario either, but if you make your hand they will pay you off. The only differences are that the pot has been raised and you are getting better odds on the second call than the first, and if you make your hand you will really get paid off with all those opponents.

Since you can't exactly play the ace (in my opinion) you are mainly hoping to hit a flush draw (or a miracle flop like trips or two pair). And flopping a draw will only get you partially there.
Following this logic, why bother to ever play A-Xs at all?

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
But you would call in the first situation

[/ QUOTE ]
No I wouldn't.

[ QUOTE ]
Since you can't exactly play the ace (in my opinion) you are mainly hoping to hit a flush draw (or a miracle flop like trips or two pair). And flopping a draw will only get you partially there.


[ QUOTE ]
Following this logic, why bother to ever play A-Xs at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate playing A-Xs, and generally stay away from it...I need to be getting extraordinary odds preflop to play this hand, or be in the blinds. On a side note, 7 to 1 in an unraised pot is better than 7 to 1 in a raised pot.

-ropey

[lil']

I hate playing A-Xs, and generally stay away from it...I need to be getting extraordinary odds preflop to play this hand, or be in the blinds.

Oh, well there's your problem. No wonder nobody can convince you. You're folding it in spots where it can be profitable.

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, well there's your problem. No wonder nobody can convince you. You're folding it in spots where it can be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have explained to you why I think it is NOT profitable.

Would you care to take a shot at explaining to me why it is profitable?

I can certainly be convinced, but have yet to see any real reason from anyone on how this is profitable.

-ropey

[Homer]

Thread from mid-high stakes (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=mediumholdem&amp;Number=332388 &amp;Forum=All_Forums&amp;Words=12&amp;Match=Username&amp;Searchpa ge=4&amp;Limit=25&amp;Old=allposts&amp;Main=332388&amp;Search=true #Post332388)

-- Homer

[Louie Landale]

Folding the flop is out of the question. Even if you SEE his 8 you are getting 15:1 for your 8.xx:1 5-card out. That's actually real close since you may lose if you improve and it may get raised behind you. But lets not forget that against this raiser, 66 can EASILY be the best hand right now. Your hand is screaming for a raise on the flop against THIS PF raiser.

If you are going to play so weakly ON the flop then you should NOT have called the raise PF.

- Louie

[James282]

No one is saying fold on the flop are they? Please don't get so high and mighty Louie..if you shouldnt be calling the flop without wanting to raise, you shouldn't call the flop without understanding basic pot odds, either. I believe this mistake is far worse. His odds on the flop, if he calls, are 20:1, not 15:1.

9 to the flop for 2 bets = 18
bet and call = 20

If you are going to use caps and stuff at least get your math right. Also, I might be wrong, but raising "if you see his 8" is foolish unless he is a weak player who will fold if neither of you improve. With all of the points made, raising is certainly a good play(i still hold that it depends on table texture!) but not for the reasons you stated...since you didn't really state any. I do think that Homer made another good point for raising, when he brought up the point about it being a coin-flip between calling and raising. I believe raising is probably the correct play here, now /images/graemlins/smile.gif Thanks for the discussion folks, and I'm not afraid to admit when people have provided overwhelming evidence!
-James

[MaxPower]

ropey,

First let me say that I admire your ability to dicuss these issues in a rational way even when everyone is telling you that you are wrong, so I'm sure you will not take what I am going to say personally.

I have noticed a trend in your posts. You tend to not give enough consideration to the size of the pot. When the pot gets very large you can't be afraid to throw in a raise even if you might have a second best hand. A raise is correct here for the reasons Homer and others have outlined. When the pot is large you need to maximize your chances of winning it and forget about any extra bets you might collect.

You can't worry too much that you might be betting or raising with a second best hand. I'd rather be betting or raising with a second best hand than calling with it.

One other point, I know this is a generalization, but if on the flop you think it is a coing toss between calling and raising, you should probably raise.

[Festus22]

I posted this awhile back and it was pretty much unanimous against calling 2 PF.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=smallholdem&amp;Number=362 894&amp;Forum=All_Forums&amp;Words=3555&amp;Match=Username&amp;Sea rchpage=1&amp;Limit=25&amp;Old=allposts&amp;Main=362894&amp;Search =true#Post362894

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 6c 935698 54.65 768778 44.90 7828 0.46 0.549
Qs Js 768778 44.90 935698 54.65 7828 0.46 0.451

Does the extra 9% sway most everyone to "call" side?

[ropey]

That is also a good thread. The difficult thing to consider when determining if it is correct to call or fold is the number of bets you can make up post flop. Unfortunately this is quite impossible to predict. Additionally, it is difficult to estimate your winning percentage when you do flop your set (or any other draw).

These variables are crucial in deciding if this is a positive EV play. Most responses to both threads try to indicate the number of players needed preflop to make it worthwhile. This is the best and perhaps only way to judge the number of bets you will gain when you make your draw, but far from perfect. I get ill when I flop a set in a multiway pot, only to drag it with a single bet on the flop.

But these two variables must be considered when determining if it positive EV. The pot odds before the flop are important...although 7 to 1 is different in an unraised pot than in a raised pot. For every time it is raised, your expectation on the hand is going down, because you have to muck your hand such a large percentage of the time on the flop. Additionally, the variance of bets into the pot post flop is small.

I think Axs are dangerous hands, and can lose a lot of money if not played cautiously. I also think that it is difficult to call into a raised pot (or any pot) with this hand and make up for all the bets you lose when you miss your draw.

This other post talks about playing pocket pairs for multiple bets, which is generally the same concept as calling with Axs. You just need to determine if you think you can hit your draw frequent enough to make it worthwhile.

For any who are interested, I have created a simple spreadsheet that calculates EV of a flopped set based on the variables I mentioned above. It allows you to input the percentage of players who fold on each street, as well as what percentage of time you think you will win when you make your draw.

Then you can decide for yourself how many callers you think you need to make this call worthwhile. Post your email address if you would like it.

-ropey

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
First let me say that I admire your ability to dicuss these issues in a rational way even when everyone is telling you that you are wrong

[/ QUOTE ]
It wouldn't even be fun any other way!!!
[ QUOTE ]
so I'm sure you will not take what I am going to say personally.


[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I won't, I just enjoy a good discussion.
[ QUOTE ]
You tend to not give enough consideration to the size of the pot. When the pot gets very large you can't be afraid to throw in a raise even if you might have a second best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I completely agree with you here. It is always a good idea to raise if you think you can narrow the field down, and get hands out that have potential to outdraw you. However, in this particular situation, I don't see to many drawing hands to be concerned with, so I feel it may be better to just call, and get paid off a bit more with these other players in the pot.

The fact is, a vast majority of the time you need to improve your hand to win, and when you do improve it to Aces Up, or Trips, then there are very few hands that you will lose to. Few enough that I think it is better to string along some callers.

[ QUOTE ]
You can't worry too much that you might be betting or raising with a second best hand. I'd rather be betting or raising with a second best hand than calling with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Once again, the fact is, if you do have the second best hand then you need to improve to win anyway...and when you do improve, I don't see to much of a threat of being beat...so why not string along as many callers as possible.

-ropey

[bdypdx]

[ QUOTE ]
What was the situation

[/ QUOTE ]

The similarity of the situation to the original post was on the flop. I did not cold call a raise preflop in this one.

Loose/passive 3/6 game. I'm in LMP with A8c. 3 limpers to me and I limp. CO and button limp. Blinds complete.

Flop: 10d 8h 4c. Checked to UTG+1 who bets. 1 call. I raise. CO, Button and SB fold. UTG and UTG+1 call. UTG+2 folds.

Turn: 7c. Checked to me. I bet. UTG+1 calls

River: Ah. Checked to me. I check. (Something about UTG+'s check made me fear a CR.) UTG+1 shows KTo.


[ QUOTE ]
what better hand did he fold?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure, but CO was grumbling something to his buddy about a straight.

[ropey]

So evidentally he folded a gut-shot straight draw for 2 small bets. Thats nice...J 9 is a likely holding in this situation, 6 9 is probably more likely. I would say in the majority of low limit games, your opponent will not fold with this draw though.

But anyway, I will assure you that you certainly didn't knock out any hand that were better than yours. A raise in this situation has an added benefit of probably stringing along the caller in between you and the bettor. My point about calling was that you could potentially make more money by stringing along callers, as there are few cards that can come that hurt you, but when you improve you likely have the best of it. This would be a case where the 7 would have hurt you. But once again, I am surprised that a raise would knock out a J 9 in this situation anyway, especially with a 10 high flop.

Thus, I think the decision to make here is which way could you make more money...I think it is alright to neglect any draws in this situation, and not worry about knocking these draws out, since they only have one chance (one card) to help their hand.

Let me also critique your play, or at least tell you what I would have done. After raising the flop, I would have taken the free river card (checked the turn). I don't see any reason to bet into a very probable better hand. Secondly, why do you fear a check raise? Unless he is holding AA or A 10, you have a winner. You bet your hand when it was second best, then caught the perfect card and checked behind. You must bet the river here.

-ropey

[Nottom]

You need to bet the river here. If he has AT then he has AT, you're ahead of pretty much everything else I would expect him to have.

I like the turn bet because you can't afford to give any free cards if you are in the lead. If you check you are inducing a bluff on the river, so you might as well bet now and check behind if you don't improve.

[bdypdx]

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, why do you fear a check raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

It had to do with the way my opponent said "check". A hunch basically, that turned out to be incorrect. In retrospect, considering the action, I probably didn't need to fear AT; and surely not AA.

[James282]

In this situation, you got very lucky that you hit your outs. Looks like raising did win you the pot though, if the CO folded his gut-shot. I suppose that is the double edged sword of the raise /images/graemlins/smile.gif The extra 1/2 bb won you the pot this time, because you knocked out a better hand and made your draw, but it would have cost you more to lose the pot if he hadn't made his gut-shot straight, and you didnt 2 pair up.. I suppose we can maybe conclude that a raise here depends on pot size, and can be correct or incorrect based on the size of the pot? Seems like you got pretty lucky here, although a raise was definitely the right play, since it knocked out other drawing hands.
Anyway this was redundant, gonna stop beating a dead horse.
-james

[Huh]

Okay, I'm washing my hands of this. But I want to make two points before I do.

First of all, I am seriously offended that you think I used some poker stat program to do this. It is a fairly simple computation that I did using an excel spreadsheet.

Second of all, take a look at the numbers.

6% of the time you are a huge favorite, your equity in the pot is silly and it is easily over 7 BBs.

11% of the time you hit a flop that offers you at least 2+BB if not more.

9% of the time you will have to pay more, bets, but almost half the pot is yours on the flop and almost a quarter of it is yours on the turn.

16% of the time you have enough equity to continue. At least 1BB out of that pot belongs to you on the flop.

These are rough estimates that are very low, if anything. They add up to 1.25 BB, more than your initial investment.

If you cannot see how this is worth the 1BB investment up front, than I doubt you are fairly knowledgable about proabability.

Oh yeah, this isn't even taking into account the ram-jam profit you make when you flop your four-flush and someone is desperately trying to protect a hand.

-Huh

PS)
To figure out how I got my numbers just take all the possible flops (117,600) and do all the combinations of
Flush Cards(11), Pair Hole Card 1(3), Pair Hole Card 2(3), and Others(33).

-Huh