How am I doing here?

[Guy McSucker]

Running bad. Sometimes it's just luck, sometimes it's your own fault. Can you help me to figure out which it is?

Party $25 NL game. I am playing as small as I can while I try to work out what's wrong. I have about $23, everyone else has me covered.

AQ spades in late position. A couple limp, I raise to $2, three call. Pot is somewhere in the $8 region.

Flop: T 9 3, two spades. I quite like it.

BB, who seems to be a drunken maniac, bets the minimum, 50c. Player to my right, a very big stack who seems pretty solid, makes it $5. I just call rather than pushing my flush draw with overcards, hoping to get another caller. Everyone else folds, including the BB.

Turn is a blank. Pot is about $18. Opponent bets $10. I have just under $17 left. Fold, call or raise all-in?

I decided that I might have up to 15 outs here, or 12 if he has something like ace-ten, and furthermore that he will pay me of for the last $7 if I hit, so I just call.

Pot is $38.

River is a queen. He sets me in for the last $7 and I call.

Okay so how did I do? I am interested in what you would be thinking at each stage of the pot, and how you would play it of course.

Thanks a lot!

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

Not much to say. He flopped a set of nines. One pair was quite clearly no good.

I still don't know if I played this hand like a sucker or in a well-reasoned way. Help!!!

Guy.

[tewall]

I think you should raise all-in on the flop. Sometimes you'll win it right there and when you don't you'll often have lots of outs. (You're almost even money against a TPTK hand).

With a draw you don't want to be facing a large bet on the turn for a significant part of your stack. You'd rather get it in on the flop where your hand is stronger, and you have a perfect chance to do so here. If your stack were much larger in relation to the pot, and there were more possible callers, you could consider calling, but here I don't think the decision is close.

[Guy McSucker]

Tewall,

Thank you for you reply! (Where are the rest of you!?!?!?)

I think you are right. I have a big draw and the equity I gain from a strong move on the flop is worth plenty. When I am called, getting the money in with two cards to come also increases my equity, although not to much in this case :-(.

Furthermore I think this was just the nudge I needed: I might have become gunshy after ten days of losing, so thanks for the pointer!

Anyone got any more ideas?

Guy.

[Graham]

Nice play on the name, Guy. Hope it's not too bad a run...they always turn around so long as you play tight.


You maybe played like one of those sissies acesover8's mentioned, but I'd probably have played it the same way and just called that flop - depending on that opp's tendencies of course (nb: HE not my best game, so I'll pass the salt...here, there you go).

Two ways to take that flop:

1) Call, hope others come for value and that you make your hand. Pro: Lower variance? Possible extra value Con: means you're often stuck with another bet on the turn that you may have to fold to, so you only get to see one card, not 2 many times.

2) Be aggressive a la tewall and shove in, hoping for the fold, but with outs and 2 chances if you're called. Pro: takes the guessing out and puts the test on the opp, plus shows you'll take aggressive stances - may help in future hands, eg getting paid off when you're the one with the set. Con: riskier strategy; you're putting up your stack on a draw.

hmmm, typing this out makes me lean a bit more toward the aggressive play of shoving in. Oh well, that's my brief rambling from non-expert.

G

[Guy McSucker]

Nice play on the name, Guy. Hope it's not too bad a run...they always turn around so long as you play tight.

Thanks! It's not such a bad run. Hell, there have been days when I've lost more in an hour than in the last ten days (god bless smaller stakes!), but it's just so relentless at the moment. Anyway, less whining from now on, I promise.

typing this out makes me lean a bit more toward the aggressive play of shoving in.

I agree. My executive summary of the situation is: big draw, big pot, short stack, crazy opponent... all-in.

Guy.

[soda]

Hey Guy - I'm a very successful NL player (limit as well). I'd push all in here. Stacks are small. Your hand is awesome against one pair. The only hand you fear is a set or two pair - even then, you'll win quite often. Just shove it in.

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soda