squiffy
10-10-2003, 02:11 PM
This is a post from another forum. I would like your help calculating the odds involved and knowing what you think is the correct poker answer, just based on conventional wisdom, even aside from the statistics.
I have 33 in the CO and UTG open raises, 5 cold callers later and I cold call in the CO. The hand is pretty straightforward from there as I flopped trips and took a ridiculous pot, but I was wondering if this play is ridiculous or correct. I didn't expect another raise as the button and the blinds were pretty passive both preflop and on the flop.
I thought calling the raise was risky and a losing proposition, depending on the table limits and playing styles as you may be up against higher pocket pairs. Everyone else seems to think it is any easy call.
I think an unraised pot is an easy call from late position with 33. And you might even put in the first raise from late position. But I think calling a raise is a wholly different matter. Even if you hit your set, your opponents could make higher sets. And you will seldom hit your set.
And I don't think you have odds to call the raise.
The odds are 7.5 to 1 that your 33 will flop a set. SO that is 1 chance in 8.5 or about 12%. So calling the raise you will lose 88 big bets, every 100 hands. You will hit your set the other 12 times. But how often will your 333 win the pot out of those 12 times, and how much money will you make if you do win.
Sometimes others will flop a higher set. ANd AA and KK will stay to the river and I have seen them flop higher sets on me before when I was bottom set. Sometimes you will not improve and you will lose to a flush, a straight, or a full house or higher set.
At .50-$1 limit on Party, the average pot size is $10-$14 on Party so about 10-14 BB. There is no guarantee that you will win a huge pot. ANd of those 10-14 BB, some of the money in the pot is yours that you put in, so that may need to be backed out.
I think the problem is much more complicated than the other posters suspect. And they may actually be wrong.
I have 33 in the CO and UTG open raises, 5 cold callers later and I cold call in the CO. The hand is pretty straightforward from there as I flopped trips and took a ridiculous pot, but I was wondering if this play is ridiculous or correct. I didn't expect another raise as the button and the blinds were pretty passive both preflop and on the flop.
I thought calling the raise was risky and a losing proposition, depending on the table limits and playing styles as you may be up against higher pocket pairs. Everyone else seems to think it is any easy call.
I think an unraised pot is an easy call from late position with 33. And you might even put in the first raise from late position. But I think calling a raise is a wholly different matter. Even if you hit your set, your opponents could make higher sets. And you will seldom hit your set.
And I don't think you have odds to call the raise.
The odds are 7.5 to 1 that your 33 will flop a set. SO that is 1 chance in 8.5 or about 12%. So calling the raise you will lose 88 big bets, every 100 hands. You will hit your set the other 12 times. But how often will your 333 win the pot out of those 12 times, and how much money will you make if you do win.
Sometimes others will flop a higher set. ANd AA and KK will stay to the river and I have seen them flop higher sets on me before when I was bottom set. Sometimes you will not improve and you will lose to a flush, a straight, or a full house or higher set.
At .50-$1 limit on Party, the average pot size is $10-$14 on Party so about 10-14 BB. There is no guarantee that you will win a huge pot. ANd of those 10-14 BB, some of the money in the pot is yours that you put in, so that may need to be backed out.
I think the problem is much more complicated than the other posters suspect. And they may actually be wrong.