Scotty's bluff against Humberto

[tewall]

I'm sorry I don't remember more of the details. Perhaps someone can fill them in.

Scotty has 8 3 and raised the blinds some amount. Humberto, with A T, reraised to 40Tk. Scotty re-raised to 100Tk. At this point Humberto folded.

My question is, suppose Humberto had decided not to fold. Should he re-raise or call? I think Humberto had around 400Tk at this point and Scotty I don't know, but maybe 250Tk. I can't remember. He had just gotten lucky and sucked out to double up, but I can't remember to how much.

The argument for calling would be that raising is bad because the raise would only get called by a better hand. The argument for raising would be, who cares? the pot is big enough to win it right there and we don't want to give Scotty a chance to see a flop that might beat us.

Of course it's not so cut and dried as Humberto, even if he decided not to fold, would not know where he stood. If he called he would be able to see the flop and then make a decision, and maybe not get knocked out if he decided he had made a mistake (pre-flop, to call). If he guesses wrong (pre-flop) and gets called, he's very likely to be dominated.

So call or raise?

[1800GAMBLER]

I read half and vote raise all in because he's going to get outplayed by Scotty again elsewise.

'The argument for calling would be that raising is bad because the raise would only get called by a better hand. '

That's an arguement for raising all in.

[Zag]

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I read half and vote raise all in because he's going to get outplayed by Scotty again elsewise.

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LOL. That's it exactly!

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'The argument for calling would be that raising is bad because the raise would only get called by a better hand. '

That's an arguement for raising all in.

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Not completely, it isn't. A raise is only useful if:
1. Better hands might fold.
2. Worse hands might call.
3. Worse hands might improve to better hands, so you want to push them out now.

A raise costs you money if:
4. You plan to call another bet anyway and a bluff is likely
5. You still might get away from this hand.
6. Even if you are behind, you have draws.

You are only taking #3 into account in your comment. I do think #1 also applies, here: AJ, AQ, and small pairs might fold, so a raise could be worthwhile. However, I think that #5 and #6 outweighs both of those.

I was originally going to say that #4 and #5 are mutually exclusive, but they aren't quite. If he were to call (planning to fold to another bet) and a 10 pops up on the flop, he might consider calling another bet on the combined possibilities of catching a bluff, being ahead of smaller pair, and 5 outs if he is behind.

[tewall]

I was trying to be succinct in my description, not describe all the possible reasons for calling or raising. However, you were also succinct and much clearer than I was, so kudos to you!

Sorry if I'm being dense here, but was your final answer to call?

[Zag]

Actually, I would fold. Since this puts me agreeing with somebody who has made it to at least one final table of at least one tournament, I'm inclined to like the choice.

If it isn't a consideration, I would rather call. My plan would be then to call a flop bet only if I pair, but to bet out if checked to.

[1800GAMBLER]

A raise is useful in this situation due to if he has high standards for calling this most of the time the pot will be ours. It doesn't force the player into a -EV play dependant on stack sizes though.

[sdplayerb]

AT is a horrible hand, it is an easy fold to a reraise.
Scotty knows Humberto can only play AA or KK here, so it was a great play as he knows what Humbero thinks he may have and would RR with.

But of call vs raise, I'd choose raise just because call is such a bad move. Unless you hit two pair or better, you can't play anymore in the hand.

[tdomeski]

I don't know if you guys caught it but when Humberto was deciding whether or not to call the reraise Scotty told him he couldn't call it. . .Humberto could not call with A-10 the only play he could make would be to move Scotty all in. . .It was a brilliant read on Scotty to know the ability of the player and know that he could not call that raise but only move all in and know that Humberto would only make that play with AA or KK. . .taped that play and watch it often. . .Simply brilliant.

[daryn]

the key about this hand, is if you're humberto, there's no way you can call or raise, you must fold.. think about it. unless you have a great read that scotty is bluffing with garbage, then you go all in