Bet the river w/ Ace no-kicker? PartyPoker 10-20

[Ulysses]

Loose and aggressive 4-handed PartyPoker 10/20 6-max.

I raise UTG w/ [ Th, Ah ]. Only BB calls. BB is loose-aggressive, near maniacal.

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7h, Js, As ]
BB bets. I raise. He 3-bets. I call.

** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
He bets. I raise. He calls.

** Dealing River ** : [ 7s ]
He checks. Now, I chop w/ any Ace. He may well have played a 7 this strong. Check or bet?

Edited to add that he definitely could also have played a flush draw this strong.

[Bob S.]

If he would play a 7 that strongly, then he would also play a Jack or a flush draw as strongly too. I think I would just check the river since this opponent won't be folding any hands that chop with you and the only hands you can beat that he may call with is Jacks up. Had the river 7 not been a spade I would be far more inclined to bet however.

Bob S.

[skp]

I would check here for the reasons you give. bb could have spades too in addition to 3 7's.

[Franchise (TTT)]

The only thing he'd call and lose with would be a J, right? Check.

The flush gets there, the bottom card on the flop pairs, any ace chops, if he has two pair you're still beat...

[Ulysses]

So, I mentioned this guy is maniacal enough that I actually have to give him credit for possibly having a seven here even after all that pre-river action.

OK, given that fact:

a) Given the flop and turn action, no way he had two pair (A7, AJ etc. will definitely pop me back on the turn).

b) I think there's a good chance he 3-bets me w/ any Ace on the turn. But he might have a small Ace.

c) If he had a flush draw or 7, can a guy like this really resist betting out on the river? I mean, that's a pretty scary card for me. Could he bear the thought of this getting checked through?

My initial thought was something like this:

20% 7 - I get checkraised and pay him off
30% flush - I get checkraised and pay him off
20% Ace - we chop
30% Jack or smaller pocket pair - if I bet, some of the times he'll muck

So, 50% of the time I lose 2 bets. 20% of the time we chop. And some fraction of 30%, I make an extra bet.

Checking sure seems better. But then I thought of the points I listed above and decided to bet. Close or stupid?

[Bandorn]

Check the river. Its only 1BB, not a major loss. Against Bad players that show aggrosion, dont discount the possibility of weird cards.

[1800GAMBLER]

Woah there horsey! My theory screwed?

Since you didn't include a percentage of the time he is folding to bet here you should only bet if you are good more than 50% of the time? Pot size becomes irrevelant here. Right?

Plus!

If you fear the checkraise then it has to be more than 66% of the time?

reread: You did include percentage of the time he'll muck a worse hand too. Hence betting seems worse.

Or! Did you just post this hand to test if this forum does know it's theory after the winning player's arguement? Since i'm sure you know the answer to this.

[1800GAMBLER]

1BB is a major loss.

[mikelow]

Would he play a jack this strong? If not, you should check.
If so, yes bet. I'm inclined to check.

[jdsmoooth]

I consider myself to be a pretty aggressive player, and I check. Maybe he's betting a flush draw. I think you may be running the risk of a check raise with this one. Especially since you've been aggressive the entire hand.

Play Hard,

Felix

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he play a jack this strong? If not, you should check.
If so, yes bet. I'm inclined to check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. He might even play a seven this strong, so he'd definitely play a jack this strong.

[Ulysses]

My initial thoughts revolved around the percentages I outlined. Based on those, it's a clear check. But then I started thinking about the other points I mentioned in that post and felt those percentages could be way off v. a near maniac like this guy.

[Ulysses]

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I decided to bet.

He called. My hand was good. He had JQo.

But I think I should have just gone the straightforward route and checked. I think I was affected by this guy getting out of line way too much. Still, not a good river card for me to assert myself with.

[Bandorn]

In a tight game such as 30-60. Yes 1BB is a magor loss. But in a 10-20 which is usually looser, NO.

[WyattErb]

since you are heads up and u raised the pot, i wouldnt think him to have the 7 when he calls your bet...2 high cards or A with a small kicker...possibly an 7...but that chance is very small!
checking at the end seems very advisable to me...but only because of the possible flush!