A Party 25 NL hand

[jerrybai125]

I just joined the table and get AKs in UTG and raise it to 3 dollars. Folded to MP who makes it 10, comes back to me and I just call.

Flop comes 666

I check, and he goes all in for 10 more.

Your action??

[crockpot]

sure looks like fun.

if you were going to call preflop, you have to call here, since you are getting 3:1 and have seven outs against a pair smaller than kings. also, there is a quite decent chance he has AK as well, or perhaps even AQ.

[jerrybai125]

I thought the same thing getting 1:3 on my call but my friend who is a really good player said it was an easy fold because the other play could easily have AA or KK at this point. I did call and the turn came another 6! haha and he had QQ. Though results dont matter, he was so pissed he bought in again and went all in the hand right after with 93o and ran into AA.

[1800GAMBLER]

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he was so pissed he bought in again and went all in the hand right after with 93o and ran into AA.

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Haha! Did he leave after that?

[1800GAMBLER]

Looks like you misread crocksucker mildy.

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I thought the same thing getting 1:3 on my call but my friend who is a really good player said it was an easy fold because the other play could easily have AA or KK at this point.


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if you were going to call preflop, you have to call here



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I.e. calling preflop means you think you are leading. So after calling preflop nothing should change.

You also don't have the correct odds to call so you should only call if you think he would do this with a hand you are leading against. i.e. if he wouldn't do it with AQ AJ you should fold. crocksucker covered that.

[jerrybai125]

haha yea, I was about to make a ton off him if he stayed but left right after the 93o, btw 3:1 odds is not good enough for 7 outs?

[crockpot]

it is good enough, if you can really be sure you have the seven outs. here's a good math exercise: say the guy will reraise you with only AA-QQ. he can have three AA, three KK, and six QQ. against aces you are drawing so close to dead we can just call your EV zero. you have four outs against kings, and seven against queens.

so your average outs are (3*4 + 6*7)/12 = 4.5. 4.5 outs is not enough to call getting 3:1 all in.

however, if you think his preflop play indicates something in the spectrum of AA-TT, AK or AQ, you have a clear call. i'll let you do the math for this situation on your own.