cbloom
10-04-2003, 02:18 AM
I'm trying to tabulate some simple rules for reading hand strength from betting. I don't really like any of the 2+2 material on reading hands, because it assumes that your opponents are reasonable players. Sklansky and Padmanabhan do this clever detective work, but that stuff does not fly in the typical low-limit game where your opponents don't know what they're doing. I'm looking for categories and probabilities that are less precise but more reliable.
The basic categories I'm looking at are -
A) no information about the hand, could be random
B) hand is at least good enough to call "pot chances", eg. bet amount/pot size ; this is usually something like a 10% chance of holding up at showdown
C) hand is strong enough to value bet, this means it has a chance of winning thats >= 1/N for N players
D) hand is probably a monster, very high chance of winning
Obviously this all depends on the texture of the table and flop and such, but I'm looking for some principles.
So, the basic things I've come up with are -
1. Just leading out with a bet doesn't show anything. The player may be trying to induce folds or disguise his hand. On the flop, usually it means a C, not a D.
(if he capped it on the previous hand and he's still leading out, that's another matter).
2. Check-raising generally means you're at least in category C, maybe D.
3. Calling 2 or 3 bets cold usually means you're in category C, but occasionally it means you have a very good draw in category C.
4. Just calling usually means you're in category B, but occasionally it's D and you're slow-playing or trying to keep people in.
5. Raising usually means your hand is usually >= C
6. Betting out and then re-raising means your hand is a very strong C or a D.
7. Checking and calling usually means your hand is a B
8. Betting the flop and checking the turn often means you were betting on a semi-bluff or a weak piece of the flop, or you're scared of the turn card, roughly category B.
9. Two people raising and reraising each other are usually a D.
10. Calling 2 or 3 bets cold and raising usually means category D if you're late in the round, but if you're early, it could just be category C and you're trying to reduce the field.
The basic categories I'm looking at are -
A) no information about the hand, could be random
B) hand is at least good enough to call "pot chances", eg. bet amount/pot size ; this is usually something like a 10% chance of holding up at showdown
C) hand is strong enough to value bet, this means it has a chance of winning thats >= 1/N for N players
D) hand is probably a monster, very high chance of winning
Obviously this all depends on the texture of the table and flop and such, but I'm looking for some principles.
So, the basic things I've come up with are -
1. Just leading out with a bet doesn't show anything. The player may be trying to induce folds or disguise his hand. On the flop, usually it means a C, not a D.
(if he capped it on the previous hand and he's still leading out, that's another matter).
2. Check-raising generally means you're at least in category C, maybe D.
3. Calling 2 or 3 bets cold usually means you're in category C, but occasionally it means you have a very good draw in category C.
4. Just calling usually means you're in category B, but occasionally it's D and you're slow-playing or trying to keep people in.
5. Raising usually means your hand is usually >= C
6. Betting out and then re-raising means your hand is a very strong C or a D.
7. Checking and calling usually means your hand is a B
8. Betting the flop and checking the turn often means you were betting on a semi-bluff or a weak piece of the flop, or you're scared of the turn card, roughly category B.
9. Two people raising and reraising each other are usually a D.
10. Calling 2 or 3 bets cold and raising usually means category D if you're late in the round, but if you're early, it could just be category C and you're trying to reduce the field.