You bet again? I raise again. Right?

[Ulysses]

15-30. The lineup is interesting, but not really relevant to this hand....

3 players have been here for 24+ hours. 3 players play any two all the way to the river. 3 of us are seemingly reasonable.

Decent guy who is relatively loose opens. Anytwo calls. I raise in CO w/ AdKc. BB calls, opener calls, anytwo calls.

Flop As 5d 6d

Checked to me, I bet, decent guy and anytwo call.

Turn (As 5d 6d) 9d

Decent guy bets out. Anytwo folds. I raise. Decent guy calls.

River (As 5d 6d 9d) 7d

Decent guy bets out again. I consider briefly and raise again.

At the time, I thought this was very straightforward. But after the fact, I thought this might be a mistake. This guy is a reasonably solid player. He can definitely put me on a reasonable range of hands based on the action up to the river, and many of them include the Ace of Diamonds. When he bets into me, what worse hands is he going to call a raise with? Kd probably, maybe Qd. That's about it. I don't think he'll put me on any sort of bluff-raise with this board and the action so far. And of course he'll 3-bet w/ something like 8d9h (the game was such that there are a number of hands he could limp in with that contained 8d). And if he snuck in w/ 3d4d he'll 3-bet as well. And I'm going to pay off a 3-bet from this player.

Given the relative likelihoods of this being either:

a) a bluff
b) a worse hand that will call a raise
or
c) a straight flush

is it actually a better move to just call here?

[MrGo]

I had to re-write this message. After re-reading it, I don't see a call being a terrible play. I still however think a raise is the better play. He is perhaps trying to protect his K or Q of /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Obviously if you get re-raised, call and pray.

You could think of it this way:

His bet into you on the turn could of been a semi-bluff for the flush draw, since he most likely has K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Your raise could indicate a flush, but not ace high. His bet into on the river is in case you check the river and he gets no value for his singleton flush.

[Mike Gallo]

Ulysses,

I would have raised the river. If he raises you, call the raise. Only the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif beats you.

I cannot give an opponent credit for it because he bet into me on the river.

I think if this opponents had the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifhe most likely would have check raised. Unless of course he knew you had the Ace and you would raise him.

RAISE !!!/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Bandorn]

No a raise here is warranted. If yuor going to call everytime yuo fear Str. flush or other miracle hands, then it might be time to retire. No offense intended. Just dont look for ghosts till they show.

Now if there where more players still in the hand I might just call.

[DrSavage]

If i'm positive this player is good i'd call. Typical or unknown opponent I'd definitely raise.
If the player is good i like the call because I can't imagine good player playing the turn the way he did without him having a baby flush or more likely a straight with a flush draw, and youy wouldn't be happy to face either one of those because of higher str flush probability.
Consider this: the same board without str8 flush draw(make the river 7 a Q instead) and you have Kd and not Ad. would you raise a river bet? It's pretty much the same since Ad is not a nut flush card anymore, now it's 8d followed by Ad and so on, so play it the way you would've played 2nd nut one card flush.
I still think you're good most of the time here, but when he doesn't fold to your raise you're likely to be facing a 3bet.

[Clarkmeister]

Raise. A good player should be value betting lots of hands here, and most players (even good ones) will have a hard time laying down for one more bet in a pot that size.

IOW, I think the chance of a hand that will bet and call a raise is significantly higher than a straight flush, which I think would tend to checkraise.

Bluff/desperation bet with 2 pair, etc/won't call a raise: 25%
Will call a raise with worse hand: 60%
Straight flush: 15%

I also think its rare that you can't muck to a 3-bet here, but it *is* cali so who knows.

[J.A.Sucker]

Raise and call a 3 bet. You know you'd bet the K-hi flush here, and you're gonna call a raise with it, so why wouldn't this guy? If he has the straight flush, oh well, they do call this gambling, after all.

[jen]

"This guy is a reasonably solid player."

I hadn't played with him much before, but from a distance he's got the 'solid player' look. /images/graemlins/wink.gif I'm not too impressed after yesterday's session though.

"When he bets into me, what worse hands is he going to call a raise with?"

A lot. It's not like you're going all-in in NLHE.

"Is it actually a better move to just call here?"

No way. I thought it was a clear raise and call for a three-bet. Obviously I don't know, but based on the way that he called your raise, I don't think he was even holding a diamond.

Also, after you left, he played a hand against seat 9 in which he flopped 2nd pair (J) and seat 9 flopped top pair (K). The K paired on the turn, the J paired on the river, and the guy bet the river and called a raise -- awful, given the way the betting had gone on earlier streets.

[Diplomat]

I'm not so sure it is a clear-cut raise. What hand would the decent player hold that has the K or Q of diamonds in it, that would compel him to bet the turn? I guess he might have AK or AQ, but I doubt he would play either hand this way. (although he might)

Looking at your options:

With a bluff he will fold to a raise;
With a K or Q in his hand he will call your raise;
With a smaller diamond other than the 8 of diamonds he -might- call;
With the 8 of diamonds he will re-raise.

Given the action I think the second or fourth option are the most likely. If that's the case, I think it is a bit more borderline than it might first appear.

I'm not saying raising is wrong, just that it is close.

-Diplomat

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Only the 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nitpicking here - 3d4d also beats me.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty much the same since Ad is not a nut flush card anymore, now it's 8d followed by Ad and so on, so play it the way you would've played 2nd nut one card flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point and there's some merit in what you say. However, I don't agree that it's "pretty much the same." It's much more likely to run into Ad when it's the one-card nut than running into 8d when it's the one-card nut.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. A good player should be value betting lots of hands here, and most players (even good ones) will have a hard time laying down for one more bet in a pot that size.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that's probably all that really needs to be said.

[ QUOTE ]
I also think its rare that you can't muck to a 3-bet here, but it *is* cali so who knows.

[/ QUOTE ]
How long has it been since you were out here last? It's actually the opposite - it's rare that I'll muck to a 3-bet in this spot and am confident I'm right about that.

[Mike Gallo]

Ulysses,

I stand corrected. /images/graemlins/grin.gif