when to fold this BB hand?

[ninja please]

party 2/4.

this is the start of my 2nd orbit, so no notes on any players yet.

i'm dealt 9s 8c in the BB. 2 limpers, SB completes, i check.

flop: Qd 9c 3c

checked to the last player, who bets. SB folds. is this worth a call? if it is, i assume it means putting the LP on a flush draw or nothing, in which case it's worth a raise. i folded, but after thinking about it a bit, decided it might have been worth playing out a little.

any thoughts? raise or fold?

[tj00]

I think I would just fold. Second pair out of position in a small pot. If I was going to play this hand I would have bet it. I am currently playing on 2/4 table with you. You should be paying attention not posting /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[SoCalPat]

You lose very little, if anything, by folding here. Outside of the remaining 8's and 9's, everything is runner-runner to improve. It's just not worth it.

[GuyOnTilt]

It's not worth a call. Muck it and move on. I think betting is better than checking and calling, but I'd check-fold this. If it's checked through, bet the turn, but otherwise fold it. You can find better spots than this to invest your money.

[ninja please]

ah, tj, i hope you are getting some of the endless stream of money... i'm in the middle (well, end now) of my worst session yet. though i sure hope you are not one of many of the players benefiting from my loss tonight, as they are definitely not 2+2 readers....

[tj00]

I am not getting any of your money, I am getting smacked around at that table. Sorry to hear you are running bad. I have had a horrible week, it had me doubting myself. Today I broke out, and had a monster session. Don't get discouraged, play solid, and things will go your way eventually.

[ninja please]

thanks for the kind words (couldn't come at a better time), and i definitely would rather have had the chips go to a fellow 2+2er, but at least i know i'm not alone. is your handle one i'd recognize? i'm curious which of my three table disasters you witnessed. anyhow, congrats on your turnaround today, i've got to go to bed before i break any records for negative BB per hour play by someone who ostensibly knows a little bit about what they are doing...

[Dynasty]

To everyone in this thread,

What took place in this hand to make you think that anybody can beat a pair of 9's?

If you had KK, would you also check and fold on this flop? If not, what's the difference? What makes you think KK would be good on this flop but 98 isn't?

[tj00]

KK beats a pair of queens but 98 does not.

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm not saying it's obvious he's behind, but I think you can find better places to invest your chips. I would not choose this instance to do that. I'd muck it. If I was going to stay in the hand, I would've bet the flop. Since he checked it and now there's one bet back to him, I'd muck. He's out of position for the rest of the hand, and it's going to be hard for him to get any sort of read on his opponent's holdings.

I think that since he checked and LP bet, it's best to muck here.

[Dynasty]

Now you have to explain why somebody is supposed to have a pair of Queens. I don't see a scrap of evidence which should make you believe this.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying it's obvious he's behind, but I think you can find better places to invest your chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather invest my chips with top set than middle pair but we don't get to pick and choose these things like that. You're in the hand, you've got middle pair, and no good reason to believe you're beaten. You're in a +EV situation and should seize it. You shouldn't say I'm going to throw away money here (which is what you are doing by folding) and hope I get lucky enough to find myself in a better situation later. That's a losing strategy.

[ QUOTE ]
...going to be hard for him to get any sort of read on his opponent's holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Can't he check-raise the flop or turn and guage his oppnent's reaction? Can't he call the flop and bet the turn for the same reasons? Hand reading doesn't become more difficult simply because you've checked once. You have lots of options to assess your opponents strength.

[JTG51]

What took place in this hand to make you think that anybody can beat a pair of 9's?

I agree. I think check folding is clearly the third best option behind betting and check raising, with betting being the best choice.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't say I'm going to throw away money here (which is what you are doing by folding)...

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is always neutral EV. You're trying to exaggerate here to help prove your point.


[ QUOTE ]
Can't he check-raise the flop or turn and guage his oppnent's reaction?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

[ QUOTE ]
Can't he call the flop and bet the turn for the same reasons?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this one bit. At low limits, a queen would simply call you down if you did this. It would provide no read on a typical opponent's hand.

I agree with you that check-raising is a good option, but I don't think there's anything wrong with folding in this spot. Either one is fine IMO.

[tj00]

Does his betting the flop instead of checking not qualify as a scap of evidence that he might have a queen. Now I am not saying he absolutely has a queen, but his betting as opposed to checking would lend some weight that he might have one. Just a thought.

[Dynasty]

Betting a ragged flop, in a four-handed pot, when both blinds and a limper check to you in last position, only counts for half a scrap.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is always neutral EV. You're trying to exaggerate here to help prove your point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to restart that theoretical EV debate because it's silly. So, I'll change my line. Instead, it is now:

"You shouldn't say I'm not going to accept that money being handed to me (which is what you're not doing by folding) and hope to get lucky enough to be handed more money later."

[TJD]

You 2+2 ers must be improving this hopeful beginner /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I thought the same as Dynasty and JTG51 (that is good company).

With 3 opponents, the odds are against anyone having a Q.(I think we need 4/5 for 50:50). As well as middle pair I have runner runner str8 which I like and runner runner flush which I do not!

I would hate it to be checked round and someone get a free card with an overcard to my 9. Make 'em pay!

I agree with the comment that you may just get called till the end with someone who has a Q and no confidence but remember the odds are against them having one.

The main concern for me is the 2 clubs on the board, I would be much happier if it were a rainbow. However, the same applies, why should I give T8c a free card.

I would bet, expect to lose the pot fairly often but also expect that in the long run I would be ahead.

Remember, when you bet the opps might think YOU have a Q /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Trevor

[Ed Miller]

I'd checkraise here. I generally wouldn't call the late position bet with a made hand (or with a draw really, either).

[ninja please]

interesting discussion on this hand. i'd like to hear some input specifically regarding whether check raising or betting out is better on this flop.

personally, i think check raising is better, because i can pretty confidently fold to a 3-bet, where LP raising a bet, especially if MP called it, wouldn't necessarily mean i'm behind. although, i guess you have to weigh that against the chance i'd take the pot with a bet. hmm, i'm not sure. i guess that's why i'm posting for the experts...

it's very interesting the effects a bad session can have. i don't know if i'd say i was on tilt (though it probably progressed that far by the end...) but several bad beats definitely took some of the edge off my game, and changed what would have been a raise here on a good day to a fold. i'll have to watch out more closely for this in the future, because the last thing i need is to be losing money when i don't have to in the middle of a bad session.

[GuyOnTilt]

Wow. You know what Dynasty? I woke up this morning and was reading through this post, and I'm a complete idiot. It must be the fact that my last 50 hours of play has been playing NL SnG's...This is an easy check-raise. It would've been better to bet out, but now that it's back to him, he should check-raise without question. That NL stuff has really messed up my limit play I guess...

Sorry to all who read my posts and may have taken anything I said to heart. Now if you'll excuse me, I have some repenting to do.

[hockey1]

I don't see any benefit to betting vs. check-raising. Betting requires you to act before you have any information about where other players stand. It also isn't likely to force anyone with any piece of the flop out of the hand. Check-raising on the other hand allows you to muck with confidence if there are EP raisers and it forces the players behind you to call two bets cold, which could force out hands with overcards or maybe even better kickers.

What's the logic to just betting out?

[JTG51]

Check-raising on the other hand allows you to muck with confidence if there are EP raisers and it forces the players behind you to call two bets cold, which could force out hands with overcards or maybe even better kickers.

You are talking like this flop was seen by 9 players. There are only 3 other players in this hand, one of whom has already checked. Where are all of the players that will have to call 2 cold when you check raise, assuming you'll even get to check raise.

What's the logic to just betting out?

What's the logic to being afraid your hand isn't best? I'd bet this flop with a lot of worse hands (JT, 2 clubs, pocket pairs almost every time, KJ, KT, at least some of the time, etc) so I'm certainly going to bet it with a made hand.

[conform]

this is ridiculous semantic wibbling. EV is what you expect to make on the hand, on average, if you play it that way every time over a sufficiently large number of hands. saying that folding is EV 0 is tautological. it doesn't change the fact that if you have two options and you choose the one with lower EV you are giving up money. it's NET -EV rather than ABSOLUTE -EV.

[hockey1]

But you still haven't explained why betting out is superior to check-raising. If you're ahead check-raising is the best play. And if you're behind check-raising (or folding if the players after you show strength) is the best play.

btw -- I think the reason why betting out with the hands you list is different from betting out with this hand is that your chances to improve to a big hand are much greater with the other hands, which means that it isn't as much of a concern if you're behind on the flop.

[JTG51]

But you still haven't explained why betting out is superior to check-raising.

I thought I did, but I'll try again.

First, check raising with a medium strength hand like this one is a good choice if it gives you a chance to drive multiple players out of the hand. In this case, the best you can hope for is one player gets faced with calling 2 cold.

Second, you have no reason to think you'll be able to check raise. There are only two players to act after you. If they both check you are giving overcards to your pair a free look at the turn, which is bad. And if the first player bets instead of the second player, check raising has lost most of it's benefits.

I think the reason why betting out with the hands you list is different from betting out with this hand is that your chances to improve to a big hand are much greater with the other hands, which means that it isn't as much of a concern if you're behind on the flop.

Does that mean you wouldn't bet TT or even 88 on that flop? I would (although I would have raised TT before the flop, but lets igonre that for now) and they have less chance to improve than 98 does.

Just to be clear, I think given the action up to the point in the post check raising is definitely the best play. I just think betting the flop would have been better.