Tough decision on the turn : I NEED HELP!!!

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm playing 10/20 live, but the table played more like my usual 4/8 game. There was a long list for the 4/8 and I'm in a donating mood so I take a seat at the red chip table for the first time. I buy in a rack of red and two hours I'm dead even. There are 2 good players at the table, and the rest are pretty tight, but very passive.

I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP. Four folds to me and I open-raise. Two folds later, one of the good players 3-bets. The SB (tight/passive) cold-calls and I call. 3 to the flop for 7 SB's.

Flop comes: J /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks, I bet, LP raises. SB folds and I call. Headsup to the turn for 5 BB's.

Turn comes: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif[J /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

I check, LP bets. What's my best play here???

[Ed Miller]

This doesn't seem so hard to me. I'd call. I might bet a blank on the river, though.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem so hard to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It wasn't for me. I seriously considered all of my options (calling, folding, check-raising), and I really wasn't sure which would be best. You really think this is an easy call-down in this spot?

[tj00]

I think I call the turn bet. If a Q or K hits on the river I check fold, otherwise I check call.

[JTG51]

I certainly wouldn't fold since I'm against a good player who presumably is capable of raising the flop with less than top pair, and I wouldn't be too happy about getting raised again if I check raise, so I'd check call the majority of the time and probably do the same on the river.

[SoCalPat]

You yourself said he was a good player, so I can't imagine he's showing all this aggression with merely a bigger ace. That said, unless an overcard hits the river, I would check/call the turn and river.

[Ed Miller]

You really think this is an easy call-down in this spot?

I think there is a solid chance you are ahead. I certainly wouldn't fold. I don't really think checkraising is correct either, at least against a strong opponent. I would call the turn bet and then probably bet a blank on the river.

[JTG51]

I'm not a big fan of betting the river unless you think this opponent will often call down with an umimproved AK or AQ. If you think he will, then by all means bet.

I think there's enough chance that he'll raise the river with an overpair, or that he'll bet a worse hand when you check that I'd rather go that route.

[Dynasty]

When the turn action gets back to you, there are 8 big bets in the pot. If you are drawing to a 5-outer, which will be a healthy % of the time, you are getting nearly the proper odds to make the call (You need 8.4:1). Since you will be ahead here some of the time, you definitely can't fold on the turn unless you have a specific read that you are drawing to less than a 5-outer.

[chenyi]

I think you have a call here.
Let's assume he has AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ for conservative assumption. The ratio is roughly 2:1:1:1:1. Of course the fact you have a ace changes the ratio a little bit, but it's still close. Let's assume you call it down for two bets. So you invest 2BB to win 7BB.
There is 47 cards left.
If you are against:
AK: His only outs is K. 6/47 chance he hits. So your
EV=6/47 * (-2) + 41/47*7 = 5.8
AA: you have two outs: EV = -2
KK-QQ: 5 outs, EV= -1
JJ: EV = -2
overall your EV = + 0.93
Let me know if there is error in my calculation. /images/graemlins/cool.gif