Check or bet this river?

[Ulysses]

5-handed PartyPoker 5/10.

Dealt [ 9d, Js ] in SB.

Horrible player limps. He's not horrible in any specific way. He just makes all sorts of common mistakes - calls when he should fold, calls when he should raise, raises when he should call, makes hopeless bluffs, etc.

I complete in SB. I wouldn't suggest playing this hand in SB to any of you. Definitely muck. /images/graemlins/grin.gif That's enough discussion on that.

BB checks.

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3s, As, 9h ]

I bet. BB folds. Limper calls.

** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8h ]

I bet. Limper calls.

** Dealing River ** : [ Th ]

Check or bet? Why?

[hutz]

I think we need some more information. Do you read him as someone who would only raise against you with a hand that beats you? How much more likely is he to make a bad bluff if you check than he is to call with a better hand if you bet? You are more experienced than I am and know the similar types of questions that could be asked.

Arguments for betting: The range of losing hands with which he could call is large. If he has you beaten, there is a decent likelihood he will only call, which means you lose the same amount as if you check-called.

Arguments for checking: He is likely to make a bluff at the pot if you're ahead. If he raises, you either face a tough decision whether to call or you are obligated to call because he frequently makes poor raises. If he has something like a busted low gutshot draw (42s, perhaps), he's unlikely to call but he might bluff.

Assuming he's the typical Party Poker poor player, and given the quick analysis above, I would likely check and call.

I cranked this out really quickly while I should have been working. I'm sure others will have better, more thorough responses.

[Ulysses]

Good response. You're thinking about the right things. Good analysis as well.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has you beaten, there is a decent likelihood he will only call, which means you lose the same amount as if you check-called.

[/ QUOTE ]
You missed one thing here. Remember that this is a horrible player. While he could call w/ a lot of worse hands, he could also just check behind w/ some better hands. That possibility should be taken into account as well.


BTW, how about that end of season choke by those 'stros?

[hutz]

BTW, how about that end of season choke by those 'stros?

Boy, you sure know how to hurt a guy. I almost had that memory repressed and now it's come rushing back to the surface stronger than ever! One of the sportswriters for the Chronicle had a great column the other day, the gist of which was that the owner of the team needs to butt the hell out of the personnel decisions and open the purse strings just a hair. It's tough to win when the owner is content with a team that "competes" rather than succeeds. Oh well.

[karlson]

I'm usually a big fan of thin value bets on the river.

That said, I can't find one here.

I don't think he has an A. Most horrible players would have raised with it by now. I don't think he will call the river with a 3. Well, ok, he might. But there aren't that many hands with a 3 in them that he'll play preflop. Aside from complete nothing, that leaves a 9. Most loose players will play K9,Q9,J9,T9,98, and maybe 97. Unfortunately you can only beat one of those, and I don't think he's folding his J9.

I check. (and probably call).

[CrackerZack]

I'd check but i'm trying to hone my SH play. I just can't see a worse hand that can call. maybe something like 87 if he puts you on a draw. That said, I tend to bet when in doubt so maybe my reflex would cause me to bet this.

[Mike Gallo]

Ulysses,

He just makes all sorts of common mistakes - calls when he should fold, calls when he should raise, raises when he should call, makes hopeless bluffs, etc.

Which mistake will he make when you bet the river?

I would bet because I think he will call with worse hands.

[onegymrat]

Ulysses,

You should check the river. If he missed his draw, he won't call anyway. If he does call, he can probably beat you. You have enough for a showdown.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't see a worse hand that can call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're paying enough attention at the tables. You should have seen a significant # of people call on the river when they can't beat middle pair.

I don't thin your paying enough attention on these forums. After 1,000 posts, you absolutely must have read post after post where posters' opponents are calling river bets with less than middle pair.

[Ulysses]

I checked. Here are things I considered:

If he has any pair, he's going to call a bet on the river if he called a bet on the turn. Period. He'll definitely call here w/ something like 34 or 55. A good reason to bet.

Some of those worse hands, if I check to him, he'll bet. That makes it not quite as important (but not much less, since he'll check many of them) to bet for the reason above.

Maybe he has an Ace or caught a Ten or two pair or something on the river or has a better nine or whatever and has a better hand than me. He'll call w/ all those hands but will also check behind w/ some of them. A good reason to check.

Maybe he had a flush draw or straight draw or two big cards pair draw or whatever that completely missed. He won't call a bet w/ this stuff, but might take a stab if I check. A good reason to check.

I considered all that and decided to check. He checked behind and my hand was good. He had 4s6s.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he will call the river with a 3. Well, ok, he might. But there aren't that many hands with a 3 in them that he'll play preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can come up w/ tons of hands w/ a 3 in them that bad players will play. And in this situation, they'll call a river bet the vast majority of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Aside from complete nothing, that leaves a 9. Most loose players will play K9,Q9,J9,T9,98, and maybe 97. Unfortunately you can only beat one of those, and I don't think he's folding his J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Besides a nine, (in addition to a 3) he could have a small pocket pair. Or he could have a draw that missed but caught an 8.

You're giving a guy I identified as a horrible player too much credit.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check but i'm trying to hone my SH play. I just can't see a worse hand that can call.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I mention in other responses, tons of worse hands will call.

[CrackerZack]

I should qualify it as, "I can't see a sane worse hand that should call." Being at that, yes, its true that plenty will. Maybe one of my biggest mistakes is giving people too much credit. I would think weak players would avoid a game that would kill them, such as a SH, larger online game. This is probably the root of my problems with this statement. That being said I've caught myself making suicidal bets on the river recently with even more than half being successful and I'm trying to look at my bets more thoroughly before becoming known as "that guys who bets every river regardless of hand". Its not a matter of not learning that people will call with anything, its making sure I'm looking at my game and trying to discern if there is value in the bet or not.

[mdw442]

I say check. It is most likely he has an A in the pocket. Since you say he is a limper, he wouldn't be inclined to raise you, but he would call you all the way. Your only hopeis a Q or 7 card, so why give him more money. If you check and he bets, you know you're beat.