Who makes this PLO call?

[Acesover8s]

This one may come off as a bad beat story, but I had a long hour of discussion about this hand.

.25-.50 PLO hand. 5 handed, fairly aggressive. I ($27) limp UTG with KKd3d3. 1 more limper and button ($21) min-raises. Both blinds call and I make it $5.50 to go. Button and BB call.

Flop is 2 4 8 with one diamond. I bet the pot ($18ish) and button does not hesitate to raise his last couple bucks. BB folds, and I'm committed.

The button holds 89TA, for top pair, only. Turn is an Ace and I don't hit a set. My friend claims that he would make that call, I know personally I never would.

[Guy McSucker]

You mean the button's move on the flop? Or the preflop call?

I would make neither. Your hand looks like aces, and AT98 isn't a good hand to take to war against aces. On the flop, if you tell me you have kings I might come along having 11 outs, if I feel frisky, but usually not, and when I do it's probably a bad play.

There's a hand in the Reuben/Ciaffone book where Reuben advises calling on a two-pair draw like that one against a likely overpair. But, erm, I prefer winning.

Guy.

[ohnonotagain]

The following assumes that not only was there a single diamond on the flop, but also that the flop was rainbow; no flush draw possible.

Had the button had, for example, 89TJ then he would have had a clear call on the flop, since the 248 flop probably missed your (apparent aces), and two pair will win if he makes it and you do not redraw. He would have 11 outs, which *usually* more than justifies a call. Plus he would also have a little bit of back door if it came 6, 7 on the turn and river.

As it happens he had 89TA and did have 11 outs, but he had no way to know that. It looked to him like he had only 8 outs, since (unless he knows you very well) you seemed to have aces. But even 8 outs can be enough to call in this kind of situation, as the simulation below shows.

Note the redraw chances that a pair of aces has against two pairs: an ace, or a pair on the board which does not make the two pair full. In this case, an ace, a 2 or a 4. Plus a pair of aces with a 3 or 5 would have a wheel draw.

Apologies if the following simulations don't format well, I have never posted them before. The first one shows the button had 42.68% equity in the situation which in fact occurred, 32.44% if he had 89TJ and you had aces and threes with backdoor diamonds (which is marginal for him to call), and 39.99% if he had 89TJ and you had AAKQ with backdoor diamonds.

Finally, if the situation was as it appeared to him and you had AAKQ and he had A9TJ, then he had 33.7%. So he could almost call.

So although he really never should have chased apparent aces before the flop with an ace in his hand, once he got into that kind of situation it was not so bad to call. Plus in many games there would be some chance you had a hand such as KQJT double suited, and he would even be ahead on the flop! On the other hand, suppose you had had AA44, or AA9T?

Personally, I would certainly call to hit two pairs against apparent aces if the pot was laying me two to one, there was no flush draw and I had 11 outs as above. I am sure it is profitable in the long term. I wouldn't have called before the flop with an ace in my hand.

I think a willingness to make this kind of call is quite goor for your image as well, and it makes aces even harder to play against you.

Oh no!! Not again!

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=93234
pokenum -o kc kd 3d 3h - ac 8d 9c ts -- 2d 4c 8h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 4c 2d 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kd 3d 3h 470 57.32 350 42.68 0 0.00 0.573
Ts Ac 9c 8d 350 42.68 470 57.32 0 0.00 0.427

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=93238
pokenum -o ac ad 3d 3h - jc 8d 9c ts -- 2d 4c 8h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 4c 2d 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad 3d 3h 554 67.56 266 32.44 0 0.00 0.676
Ts Jc 9c 8d 266 32.44 554 67.56 0 0.00 0.324


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=93239
pokenum -o ac ad kd qh - jc 8d 9c ts -- 2d 4c 8h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 4c 2d 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad Kd Qh 493 60.12 327 39.88 0 0.00 0.601
Ts Jc 9c 8d 327 39.88 493 60.12 0 0.00 0.399


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=93240
pokenum -o ac ad kd qh - as 8d 9c ts -- 2d 4c 8h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 4c 2d 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ad Kd Qh 544 66.34 276 33.66 0 0.00 0.663
As Ts 9c 8d 276 33.66 544 66.34 0 0.00 0.337

[Guy McSucker]

Great post! Thanks!

Suppose there is enough money for a full bet on the turn.

Does this make you more or less likely to call, and will you call again on fourth street if an apparent blank hits? What if there's enough for another bet or two?

Guy.

[ohnonotagain]

If there is enough money to bet the turn, or the turn and the river then the situation is so completely different that you really can't extend the reasoning from the present situation.

Remember, this is a situation where someone in early position has made a limp-reraise before the flop, which usually/often means aces. Now let us say there is more money to bet after the flop. Will such a person bet the flop if they don't help? Can they call a re-raise in such a situation? Can/will they bet the turn if a blank comes, or if a scare card comes and they still just have one pair?

The person with a hand like 89TJ *with position* over the probable aces has everything going for him. He can bluff, check the flop back and try for a free card, call the flop and bluff the turn etc etc etc.

And you have to start thinking about the personalities involved as well.

In the specific situation described I would almost certainly call the flop bet if I thought I could win with a bluff, since anything from a 2 to a J will be scary and/or give me two pairs (if you just had aces on a 248 flop and the turn was a 5, how would you feel?). But if I thought I had to improve to win, I would raise or (more likely) pass, since I would not be able to see the river if I missed on the turn.

Obviously if you have 89TJ and you are chasing aces you would like the flop to be 567, 789, JJT or something like that. But if you are a good player with position then 248 rainbow is not that bad!

Oh no!! Not again!

[crockpot]

i don't like your reraise preflop (though with AA33ss i would be in favor of it).

the button's call is even worse, but anyone who is going to raise with a marginal hand like that, then call a pot reraise with it, is someone who came to gamble. i would be impressed if i found an opponent who would play like that preflop and then fold on that flop.

[dogsballs]

You must be playing on Party, from the info. In which case, I'd certainly not be reraising preflop (...you have a rush of blood, or something?). Just call the raise and check out the flop.

Can I play where your friend plays..?

[Acesover8s]

Thanks for the responses, as varied as they are. With the money in the pot, the player did I have a mildly EV call, if as Guy said, he knows I have Kings and not Aces. Maybe my game has gotten a bit weak lately, but I avoid making large calls for small +EV, theres enough swings in this damn game as is.

Dogsballs said this game must be on Party, actually it was on UB, I discovered I had $10.08 on there and decided I'd run it up to a quick thousand so I could pay my rent.

Crocksucker said that he didn't like the limpraise with KK33, but would with AA33. I find this strange, while granted, I'll take Aces over Kings anyday. Kings are still a strong pair, the raise allowed me to take control of the pot, lose some limpers, and most importantly allowed me to get my stack in on the flop. Another point is, I would've made this reraise with 2233 as well.

[Graham]

Maybe my game has gotten a bit weak lately, but I avoid making large calls for small +EV, theres enough swings in this damn game as is....

...the raise allowed me to take control of the pot, lose some limpers, and most importantly allowed me to get my stack in on the flop. Another point is, I would've made this reraise with 2233 as well.


Ah ken the reasons fir raisin', tae narra' the field and commit yirsel' (tho' I don't see that taking control of the pot matters by then - ye'll either get played wi' or no on the flop) but surely yir reas'nin's a wee bit contradictory here wi 2233...Ye wannae avoid puttin' a lot in for wee bits o' EV, but ye'd limp reraise wi' two wee perrs..?

Surely that's asking for high variance results. Frankly, I'd muck 2233 UTG, to absolutely make sure my variance stays down. With KK33 I'd limp to the flop as cheaply as poss...but I'll accept your limp-reraise as a (higher variance) answer.

G

[crockpot]

i don't really like the limp reraise with AA33, but it prevents the button from getting the best of you by pushing you in if he has aces. also, with aces one card on the flop will not automatically kill your hand, as will happen here if an ace flops without a king or three.

had the button raised pot, however, i would like the limp reraise, as you would now be able to get in a lot of your stack.

oh, and i really don't care for playing 2233 that way. if small sets don't have a high variance/EV ratio, i don't know what does. (of course, one could argue that they have negative EV, in which case the ratio is very low.)

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]

i don't really like the limp reraise with AA33, but it prevents the button from getting the best of you by pushing you in if he has aces. also, with aces one card on the flop will not automatically kill your hand, as will happen here if an ace flops without a king or three.


[/ QUOTE ]

I look at raises in PLO the same way that I do in limit O/8. While many players in that game will not raise on the button with hands like As3s4x6x or 2345, I will knowing that although my hand is no AA23ds, it certainly has better EV than the myriad of hands that limped in.

In PLO, in a tough game I raise with most every hand I play, it keeps opponents off balance, gives yourself control when you have the best hand and position, etc. The most important part of playing this way is never committing yourself to the pot unless you've got a good shot at taking it down. How many times do you see fishes raises with AAXX, the flop comes 567 with a flush draw and they push in.

IMO, raised pots are the key to scoring big at PLO, a big preflop pot causes peoples card to stick to their hands like glue. Players who would toss 48xx on a 567 board in an unraised pot will bet out with 34xx if the pot is big already, especially if they mistake you for being out of line with AA.

Perhaps this strategy does not have much merit in the small structure games like Party, while admittedly, I've had few winning sessions on. But in games with no max ceiling its suited me quite well.

Forgive my incoherence, I'm a bit of a drunkard.

[crockpot]

you're drunk already? well, i guess you could be on vacation in europe.

to my credit, you'll notice that on my starting out in PLO page, the primary reason i give for raising preflop is to make the opponents go too far with their hands in a big pot. still, with a hand that is meant to build top set, i like to either limp or raise small so that my opponents can stay in to hit a smaller set and go broke.

however, you may be successfully reversing this strategy here to give a set of threes a bigger chance to win for you. i have no idea how your opponents play, so the reraise here could easily have been the correct play; it's just not one that i make by rote.