Trusting your gut

[CrackerZack]

I know most of the posts here tend to severely "mathematicize" this game. (I think I just invented a word) And for the most part I agree with it, but I'm curious out there, how many people trust their gut feelings? I used to be very good at this and was very frequently right. But after being wrong a few times and making some spectacularly wrong laydowns, I started shying away from it more and more. then this weekend a situation came up... it went like this..

I open-raised with AQo in MP, folded to BB who called. Flop came T-8-6 rainbow. BB bets, I call (BB is an ok player who could be betting a good draw or have a pair and assumed I missed. I'm running over the game and everyone is a bit wary of me), I plan to raise the turn regardless of card using my scary image to act like an overpair (maybe too fancy, maybe not, we'll never know). Turn is Q (rainbow complete), he checks, I bet (plan foiled) he calls. River 8... he checks. after the turn i was certain he had a pair on the flop and was fairly sure for him to bet, it would be Ts, so I sat there for a second, but my gut really really really really was saying, "Its a trap, check behind", but my 2+2 reading voice was saying, "Dynasty and MK and Clark would call you a nancygirl!"... the 2+2 contigent of voices won, I bet, he raised, I folded and he flashed me an 8. I responded "nice play."

I know I have to bet here because I will fold to the C/R, but I felt so sure he had the 8. Nothing I can point out told me, just felt it. I know others feel these things, but do you act on them? How does it work for you? I'm gonna keep ignoring them for correct math play until I'm sure I have that down for the most part but at least I'm glad I get these feelings.

questions? comments? concerns?

[Homer]

I very rarely get feelings like this, but when I do I tend to follow them. When I first started playing, I wouldn't, because when you are first learning how to play you have a lot of irrational thoughts and you can't be sure whether you're just wussing out or whether you've picked up some kind of tell. However, now that I've been playing for a while, I can be fairly certain that when I get this kind of feeling, it's not just me wussing out. I trust my instincts now because I've developed a good feel for the game, and can pick up on small things that I couldn't pick up on before.

Here's a hand that I played a few weeks ago, that if I posted it, people would tell me I'm nuts for not betting the river:

I'm dealt TT in MP and raise after a couple limpers. Button coldcalls, SB and the rest call.

Flop - 222

I bet, SB and a limper call.

Turn - 9

I bet, only SB calls.

River - Q

SB checks and I check behind.

Now 99.9% of the time I would bet here. But I didn't because I sensed that I was about to be check-raised. I'm not 100% sure what I sensed, but I decided to trust my instincts. Maybe SB paused for a split-second longer than usual before checking, maybe his eyes widened for a split-second, etc.

-- Homer

[MaxPower]

I know exactly what you are talking about. I've struggled with this recently as well.

I tend to trust my gut less on decisions that might cost me the pot rather than on river value bets.

One thing I've realized is that if you make a lot of thin value bets on the river in a particular session, people will notice and and attempt to check-raise you when they make their hand. When this happens I am more likely to check behind when a scare card comes and I think I am right often enough to make it profitable.

I also think playing online has made me trush my gut less, for obvious reasons.

[Mike]

When Carlos Castaneda was first learning to be Junior Sorcerer, he asked Don Juan what would he (Don Juan) do if he were in a town and a sniper was on the roof waiting to shoot him. Don Juan replied to the effect of, 'I wouldn't be there.' I thought that was awful good advice then and now.

[squiffy]

Your gut is long, slimy, twisted, and packed full of partially processed fecal material. Why would you trust it???

[Ulysses]

When I get that bad feeling these days, I'm almost always right. I think that's probably true for most aggressive players. I'm way overaggressive w/ bets in general, but I check behind a lot when I get that feeling. It saves me two bets a lot of times when I avoid a turn checkraise. But I rarely worry about the feeling when it comes to calling one last bet on the river.

[squiffy]

Seriously, though, read some of the very instructive threads posted by in the mid and high-stakes game. Such threads suggest to me that strong basic math, probability, and pot odds analysis is absolutely essential to improving your game.

What we call "gut" feeling, is often based on actual evidence and is not necessarily a hunch.

If you see the same opponent play 2,3 offsuit from early position, draw to gutshot straights when he is not getting pot odds or sufficient outs, and raise with nothing to try to bluff you out of a pot, this may give you a "gut" feeling that he is an idiot and is betting or raising with nothing on this hand.

Trust evidence, observation, betting patterns, tells, playing styles, and statistics.

[Trefo]

Most times i'd say your gut is right....when that esp comes over you and for some reason you know what they have.....the problem becomes when you force that feeling than on every play your wondering if that esp has come over you.....that's when your so called instincts are wrong and your just over thinking

[Ulysses]

More or less, I agree w/ you. But here's where the gut feeling is very important. The math tells you to bet when you're 75% sure of something. You're definitely more than 50% sure and less than 100% sure. Betting patterns and such let you narrow it to 70-80%. Now you're right on the fence and it's pretty much an even-money proposition. I find myself in this situation a lot, where mathematically EV-wise it doesn't really matter what I do. In these situations, your gut feeling after playing out countless thousands of hands is what swings an EV-neutral decision to an EV-positive one.

[MD_]

You get this feeling because you only see his hand when he has the 8, so you only remember those times. Most of the time he calls, you show, he mucks, you forget it as routine and play the next hand.

-MD