Positive EV or Bad Poker

[Sarge85]

Positive EV or Bad Poker? (also posted on small-stakes fourm)

I think this situation comes up often at low-limit (especially micro-limits).

First a few general assumptions:

Assume a “typical” $.50/$1.00 loose-passive game, 5-6 limpers – no raises pre-flop.

N = Rank of card.
X = Any rank that would not impact the value of our potential draw.

You are dealt: (you have limped into this pot)

(N) /images/graemlins/diamond.gif , (N+1) /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

6 limp to the flop = $3.00

Flop comes

(N+2) /images/graemlins/spade.gif , (X) /images/graemlins/diamond.gif , (N) /images/graemlins/club.gif

Lets assume the pot has been bet at and is now back to you. We’ll say 4 people have bet $.50 each, and the action is to you (last to act). Is it positive expectation to call this flop – knowing your calling really hoping to hit a stronger drawing hand on the turn. This hand seems to have a lot of outs to draw to, (I have a 3 flush, and 3 open ended straight, and a pair) that if you hit one of them you’d probably want to call a turn bet as well.

Diamonds: = 10
N+3 = 3 (N+3 diamond already counted)
N-1 = 3
N = 2

That’s 18 outs that will probably make your hand worth a call on the turn IF you hit one on the next card.

Should I make this call?

What's the math involved here? I'm curious about the specifics. Of the times I hit my card on the turn there is a percentage of time I'll miss on the river costing me money. However if i do hit runner runner - does that offset the expense of missing both on the turn and river?

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Mike]

Unless you have opponents that don't play any old junk, you need to see the next card. You don't want to make your straight if you hold say T9, maybe even 98 as you are at the bottom card holding range of most players.

IMO, you have a big enough pot to see the next card. Hopefully you will see the third card for trips. If you get a flush card, it's likely you will be dominated by a bigger holding. If a straight card hits it needs to be smaller than your holdings.

Of course if there are two tough players in the pot, I would have to think long and hard about calling as this hand is an uphill call.

[Rook1]

if your going to go for that type of draw the circumstances need to be perfect. like last night im in the SB with a Ax suited 6-7 limper then the BB raises. Flop is 3 low cards with one of my suit. BB bets and some call but dont raise then you can go for it for 2 reasons. one is you have position on the raiser and 2 is you have odds. say I was after the BB in that hand and he leads on the flop with people behind me then you cant make that call.. in case your interested i did catch my suit on the turn and the BB bet again and i had much better than 5-1 to see the river which hit my flush. the flop bet i got 15-1 odds the turn i got(30 $ in the pot vs 2 to call) then i got 12-1 on the river(46$ in the pot vs 4 to call) the river hit my flush and i got 4 extra big bets to boot. but you have to be perfec in your relation to the bettor to go for this type of hand. say i was UTG in this hand and after the flop the BB bet then what. if i call i could get raised behind me and then i have to but in 2 small bets and my odds go down.

[Louie Landale]

Lets not confuse "lots of outs to improve" with "lots of outs to win": if you snag a diamond you are still drawing. In fact, you still will likely have to pay more to draw.

Even though your chances of catching runner-runner are about 4% which translates to a little more better than 24:1 or about 2 outs, its value is less than that since to realize your winning hand you will need to call a turn bet. Realistically, a back-door flush draw is equivalent to about 1.3 outs and a back-door straight draw about 1.1 outs.

So your pair plus whip-saw is worth about 5+2.4= 7.4 outs. When combined with the fact that it cannot get raised this round AND you have position on future rounds, this looks like a no brainer call to me, even considering you are going to lose a fair amount of the time that you DO hit. Plus, you might have the best hand and you might get a free turn card.

It turns out that making plays WITH this sort of "additional value" when you wouldn't make it without that value is fairly common good poker. Other examples would be semi-bluff raising on the turn when you snag a pair to go along with your flush draw. It makes reasonable poke but also makes for reasonable randomization.

- Louie

[arod4276]

Youre in last position, I would probably raise hoping to see the river for a discount. You have way too many outs to fold here. Plus, the implied odds are huge, if you hit youre hand you are probably going to get paid off, especially at these limits. I definitely wouldn't fold and would lean towards raising.

arod

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Forget all the exact math, it's fairly straightforward in deciding what to do here, and why.

First off, will your two pair be good if it hits? Given that it will put a three-str8 on the board, you can't be all that sure about this. If the board was 4 6 5 K you would have a better feeling about 6's and 5s than you would about queens and jacks on a board of K Q J 8. Still, in either case two pair is certainly far less than a lock. This must be factored in when deciding whether to call a bet.

In most cases, your trips cards will be good, so they are usually worth a solid two outs.

Each of your backdoor draws are worth approximately the same as ONE extra out, assuming there is a high % chance of your backdoor hand holding up if it hits. Obviously a backdoor to the butt-end of a str8 is pretty much worthless. In your example, you'll only have a one card str8, so it won't be the nuts, keep that in mind.

You should keep in mind at all times that effective odds are most important in making all decisions. Also, position relative to a bettor is highly important, as you might just get raised behind if you call an EP bet.

al

[SittingBull]

limpers,it's a playable hand.
But let's assume it's a cold call to u with the same # of players and your button position. Is it then a folding hand or is it still playable??
Just wondering
SittingBull
BTW if I'm in PM with 2 or 3 limpers,I still make a call on this hand UNLESS some aggressive players will usally make 2 more bets to me.
But this is rare in micro limits.