What do you need to hold to call with here???

[WalleyeJason]

Ok I found myself in this situation last night, Just want to know what all think.


No-limit HE

We just moved to the final Table of 9 They pay 5 spots.

Chip stacks are pretty even; with one exception a player at the table has 4x
the average stack. People seem to be waiting for someone else to bust to get closer to
the money.


The average stack is about T2200 I have T2400

The blinds are 200-400 and I am in MP


I look down and see AA

2 players before me limp in and I raise to 800.(the chip leader folded)

I get 3 callers including the BB

The flop comes 8 5 K two clubs.

Its checked to me, and I go all in.


Tell me what cards you need to have to call?


Any insight to this would be helpful.

[crockpot]

the way you played this hand, i would be inclined to put you on AK and call if i could beat that. coincidentally all the hands that can beat that can beat AA too, unless your opponent has AK also and calls expecting to split.

i would have been inclined to raise more preflop, but that's just me.

i'm just guessing you got bounced on this hand. post these in the tournaments forum for better responses.

[CCass]

If I were playing against you in this situation, I would call your all-in with any set, but I might not have called the pre-flop bet with pocket 5's (depends on my table position). I would probably also call with AK. I might also call with 7c6c, but playing this hand pre-flop again depends on table position.

You didn't give any information on the other players, but my guess is that if someone called you, you are probably facing a set, with a slight possibility of someone calling with AK or 7c6c.

Just my $.02 worth.


CCass

[Zag]

First off, you didn't raise nearly enough preflop. You currently have a little more than an average stack -- adding the blinds (and the limpers' money, which I noticed later) would put you in great shape. The last thing you want is 3 callers drawing at you.

The pot is 1400 when it gets to you, so you might as well just push it in. I had originally typed, here, that you should raise to 1400, which would tempt a hand like JJ or AQ to reraise you, but that was when I thought it was just the blinds in the pot. When I reread your note, I realized that there were two limpers already. With the limpers, just push it in. Don't give them cheap odds to pick up a two pair that you can't possibly see.

Anyway, given that you only bet 800 and got your callers, I think that you have to push in, here, once they checked to you. If you check, then you are left with a tough decision if someone else pushes in.

I assume, because of the question in your title, that some idiot called you with 56 and spiked a 6 on the river, or some such. But the real lesson for you is to stop blaming your opponents for playing badly and getting lucky. Start blaming yourself for letting them draw at you cheaply. This hand never should have reached the flop.

[WalleyeJason]

crocksucker,

How much larger of a bet would you have made pre-flop? And Why?

I'll admit, I'm still learning No-limit and any situational experinces that I can learn from will help my game improve.

In this situation, I raised 800, 1/3 of my stack this left me with T1600, I was hoping to get somebody to come over the top with AK or a pocket pair.

This is just what I was thinking at the time.

WJ

[Zag]

Sorry. I just read the reply that I made and it sounds a little harsh. I didn't mean to come down on you quite that heavily. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[WalleyeJason]

Zag,

I hear what your saying, and realize that by pushing in pre-flop wins me a nice little pot if no body holds a hand worth going all in pre-flop

I'm just thinking out loud, but lets talk about what hands could call my All-in pre-flop that you suggest.

I would think pre-flop, that I would call the all in with AA, KK reguardless of my read on the all in.

AK or QQ If I had good knowlege of how my opponent plays and if maybe I could spot somthing that could tip me off.

JJ-TT I dont want to Exit the tournament with these hands.

What do you think?

WJ

[WalleyeJason]

No offense taken...

Just happy that I can get some insightful toughts that make good logical sense.

WJ

[James282]

"I was hoping to get somebody to come over the top with AK or a pocket pair."

This was your biggest mistake. There were already 1400 chips in the pot! At this point, you don't want more than 1 caller..and even one caller isn't great. You push it all in here every time, and one of the people acting from EP might think you are making a move with this already large pot and call you down anyways. By only raising to 800 you did not even come close to getting the max EV out of this play. Consider this:

You push all in preflop, and will get 1400 chips a lot of the time, which is already a good 60% of your stack.

When you get 1 caller, you will beat them a very good deal of the time and get around 3000 chips..(two folders, small blind, and the person's stack if it's around 2k).

Your raise to 800 and getting 3 callers, and going all in on the flop only got you 1200 more chips, and also put you at an ENORMOUS risk to bust out, because just as someone said, people are definitely going to put you on AK here and only hands with a good chance to bust you will call.

Waiting for someone to "come over the top" on you, when you have already stated that people are playing very tight and trying to make it into the money is where you went wrong...this is fairly greedy play, as even raising all in and getting everyone to fold here puts you in excellent position to finish top 5.

Instead, you raised and get 3 callers, you are now against 3 hands that will call a raise with a King high flop, with 2 of a suit..that suited KQ that someone called a mini raise with looks pretty good right now...and while they might fold if you told them you had AA, they can't be positive you have the best hand. Hands like 55 that got in cheaply are now thanking their lucky stars, as they have got you absolutely crushed. The fact is, you just don't know what people will call you with. Some people will call with any four-flush here if they feel like they are too committed.

OK sorry to be long winded. Sometimes the 800 raise will pay off, but this late in the tournament, it's too much of a gamble in my opinion.
-James

[Zag]

It's a good idea to put yourself in your opponents shoes, but don't insist that he wear yours. In other words, don't ask yourself if you would call an all-in raise with X, ask yourself if he would. After all, with those hands like JJ-TT, would you have called the blind in the first place? Either they have different standards than yours, or they have very big hands that will call your all-in anyway.

You've just seen two players call the blind with more than a tenth of their stack. At least one of them is a lot looser than you are, and they both clearly have a little something. Now that they have put some money into the pot, they will be reluctant not to put more in. If you are lucky, one or both of them has limped with an Axs, and he is likely to do it again.

Look at it the other way. With only a minimum raise, you are giving them 6 to 1 odds to call you. Only hands that hold an ace are worse than a 6-to-1 dog to your hand. Therefore, they are playing correctly to call you, and, by the Fundamental Theorum of Poker, you don't ever want them to play correctly. (By the way, the FToP doesn't always apply against multiple opponents, but it is still worth considering.) Your biggest goal in NL poker, from the point of view of FToP, is to get your opponents to be in the position where it is a mistake to call you.

The worst that can happen from the all in is you pick up the 1400 that is already in the pot, risk free. You said that you only had 2400 or so, so this is a significant increase. It is probably enough to let you coast into the money, if that is your goal. It is certainly enough to let you attack one of the small stacks and still survive if he fights back and wins.

[WalleyeJason]

I moved all in after the flop and got one caller.

We flipped up the cards and he turned over AQ of clubs

Of course, the turn was a club, and I was done...

I hope to never make a mistake like that again.

I asked him after the tourney if he would have called me n if I would have moved in before the flop...He said he would probably have called...But thats easy to say after the fact.

Thanks for all your responses.
WJ

[Zag]

Two points of consolation:

1. He probably would have called you preflop, so the outcome would have been the same.
2. You got your money in when you were ahead.

Be happy.

[crockpot]

here's my analysis:

if someone has AK or a pocket pair, they are considerably more likely to call an all-in rather than make it themselves when it has already been raised (even though this is incorrect tournament strategy).

if one of the limpers has a pocket pair, your raise does not deny him the implied odds to call your raise and hope to flop a set and bust you, so you would rather that he fold to a big raise than call a small one.

there is 1400 in the pot already. here, even with aces, i don't believe there is a correct size to raise except all-in. if someone calls, great, you are a huge favorite and got some dead money in the pot. if not, you just added over 50% to your stack with zero risk. in a tournament, winning pots without having to show down the best hand is the key strategy.

in order to completely analyze the situation i would need the stack sizes of the limpers and blinds. these may seem like small details but they are always important.

by the way, these blinds are way too high for this stage of the tourney. with these stack sizes, blinds of 75/150 or 100/200 might be more reasonable, in which case a smaller raise would enter consideration. when the average player has to pay one fifth of his stack to even limp, you should push in with any hand that you believe is good.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]


JJ-TT I dont want to Exit the tournament with these hands.

What do you think?



[/ QUOTE ]

this is a great anaylsis, although you must realize there is a big difference between calling someone else's all-in and making one yourself with a hand like JJ.

although, with the blinds as massive as they are in the example you described, i think JJ is a big enough hand to call an all in if the opponents are playing typically aggressive. if they are still playing normally or if the blinds were more reasonable like 100/200, you should toss it.

[Paul2432]

An addtional benefit to going all-in with AA in this situation is that it protects you when you go all-in with a lesser hand in the future. If your opponents know that when you go all-in pre-flop that you do not have AA that puts you at a big disadvantage.

BTW, getting 3:1 odds with two cards to come your opponent had an easy call with the nut flush draw plus and overcard (even though the overcard was not good). He is probably no more than about a 2:1 dog.

Paul

[WalleyeJason]

Zag,

My thoughts Exactly.

WJ