Anyone fold here???

[manku]

PP NLHE tourney, $30+3.

I'm dealt JJ in SB in initial round, 5/10 blinds. I have about 1000, my buy-in.

A couple limpers, late position makes it $40 to go, one caller.

I raise $180.

All fold to initial raiser, who hesitates and calls. One other late postion caller.

Flop: J-10-9, rainbow.

I bet $180, initial raiser goes all in (has me covered). Other player folds.

Only hand I fear: Q-K or Q-8. I figure, if he has one of those, well I still have outs.

I call.

Of course, he turns over Q-K. And down she goes as a 6 and 4 come on turn/river.

I'm not sure why I play PP-though overall I've won money, I have had more weird draw outs and monster vs. monster than in my entire life playing B&M - and thats 20 years plus.

Blech.

Goodnight.

Manku

[crockpot]

i think that i call here. not only are you getting reasonable odds for the call, but i would rather go sit in a sidegame than droll along with only 640 chips. and there is some chance the opponent has a hand like QJ, TT or 99 in which case your fold is horrible.

if your heart is set on winning this tourney, then you probably ought to fold, but this early on i don't mind taking a chance when the worst that can happen is i win my $33 back from the idiots at a ring game.

[sam h]

Gotta call here, Manku. You're getting the right price, especially considering that your weak flop bet might have induced your opponent to try and steal.

By the way, post these hands on the tourney forum.

[Wardfish]

Dont see any way you can fold here.

My only suggestion is that you make a bigger bet on the flop. Against one opponent I would think a pot-sized bet should do it, but because of the drawing possibilities, maybe bet all-in against 2 opponents, one of whom is likely to have a decent draw.

That way you might get paid off nicely by someone with 2pair or trips also.

In this case, obviously you've run into the nuts. These things happen!

[Copernicus]

Ive been up all night, so if my thinking is fuzzy feel free to pounce (gently).

I dont like the preflop raise and I dont like the call of the all in. JJ wants to be played heads up or with as many callers as possible, nothing in between. With 4 in the hand in front of you you arent likely to be able to isolate, so limp in and see what the flop brings.

With that flop you will bet the pot, maybe even 2x the pot, bringing your investment back to about where it was the way you played it. The difference is that when the raiser comes over the top, you have a clearer read because the pot isnt big enough to try and run a bluff...the allin is a real hand.

You have the top set so raiser obviously doesnt. There is no flush draw. The only likely hands for an allin are the straights, AJ,two pair with the case J, and two pair with T9.

I think if you count those there are actually a few more straights than others, plus with the other hands he may be more inclined to raise healthy but not all in. If hes got the straight you do have 6 outs, if he has anything else he has a few runner runner outs only. All in all it looks like you are in a coin flip at best. In this chip position you shouldnt calling for all of your chips on a 50/50.

Even the way you played it I'm pretty sure hes not bluffing and still fold. I would be very surprised if he turns over anything but a KQ or Q8.

[Zag]

I disagree -- I think our hero did raise enough preflop. By my calculations, the pot was 100 when it got to him, and he had 40 to call, so his raise was exactly pot-sized. I wouldn't fault him for overbetting it a little, but I don't fault a pot-sized raise, either.

If hes got the straight you do have 6 outs,

If he has the straight, then our hero has 7 outs on the turn and 10 outs on the river, and the opponent has no redraws (except a barely concievable straight flush). At that point, the pot is over 1350, and he has 640 to call. I suspect that his opponent could show him the straight and he has odds to call it. (I was going to get an answer from two-dimes, but it seems to be down.)

Anyway, given the chance that lots of Party players would have two-pair for the all in bet, our hero could easily be ahead. I like the call, especially because, like crocksucker, I would rather be done with the tournament and go back to the live games than struggle along with a small stack. (I have, actually, won one of these tournaments after being down to only 200 of my original 800 stack, but it seems unlikely.)

[crockpot]

the odds on making a full are about 1.8 to 1 if you assume that your outs are still in the deck (which they are if your opponent has the straight.) so even in a ring game i would make this call.