A 15 30 hand

[Inthacup]

Agressive 15 30 game at Party. Mostly 2-3 players to the flop for 2-3 bets each. This hand was an anomaly.


LP1 open limps, LP2 limps, I limp in the CO with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, Button limps, SB completes, BB calls.


Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Checked around (!)

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB and BB check, LP1 bets, LP2 folds, I raise, folded around to LP1 who calls.

River: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

LP1 checks, I bet


What do you think of my play of the hand?

[DrSavage]

I don't like the river bet. I think you'll only get called by hands that beat you and it's unlikely that you will get A or K to fold.

[Inthacup]

What about this hand makes you think that he had an A or a K?

[Roy Hobbs]

I think you might be up against a king that wanted to check raise the flop. I don't like your river bet, unless you think that QT or 44-99 will pay you off. There is the risk that he has made big and little with a suited ace, but I suppose that's not a huge argument against betting unless you will pay off the raise 100%.

RH

[DrSavage]

He could have a weak ace and he hit his kicker on the flop, i don't see it as unlikely.
My main point is not that you're likely to be beaten, my point is how likely he's gonna call you with a weaker hand.
I don't think this river bet is long time profitable, as was shown by Sklansky you need to win around 55% when you're called and I don't think that would be the case here.

[Inthacup]

I would imagine that any Q worse kicker or mid pocket pair would call. If you were my opponent, what would you put me on after the turn raise?

[Barry]

When you have a table that is generally aggressive and all of a sudden it goes passive, then no one is likely to have much of anything. I posted a similar hand sometime ago and was generally trashed for it, but I think that cup might just have had a good read on the table.

Think about it LP1 open LIMPS, at an aggressive table the open action would be a raise with anything decent. The turn bet by LP1 could be a lot of things, a draw, a weak Q, a medium PP. It's not KQ. While I might not have raised here, when his opponent only calls that's good information.

On the river, I suppose that the opponent could have something like A /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and your toast, but also cup will get called by a worse Q, medium PP's and other junk. This is party you know.

It not the clearest value bet in the world, but it's not a bad one either.

[DrSavage]

From now on i will put you on QJo /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Dynasty]

You should consider raising pre-flop. Beyond that, you played the hand perfectly. The river bet is definitely good.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
You should consider raising pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[slavic]

Buy the button
Limit the field
Tell little aces to take a hike

All kinds of good reasons.

[SuCidEKInG]

Good play-nice read, i proabably would've done the same thing in that situation

[Inthacup]

I felt strongly that I was ahead on the turn. I would have been shocked if

A. Someone had limped with a K in their hand prelfop
B. someone had checked through with a K on the flop with the 2 clubs showing.

So I felt pretty safe when the Q hit on the turn. I like the raise not only for value, but also for information I gain from it.


On the river, I was worried about J 10 and a low pair like A 3 that just hit his A overcard. These are pretty specific hands and I thought I would get called by a worse Q or any mid pocket pair. I think I would have gotten a call from any of these worse hands. From his perspective, the ace probably didn't help my hand out much either. The value bet on the river is thin, but I do think it has value.

He ended up calling. He showed Q 10un and I took it down.



Thanks to all those that replied. I appreciate the input.


Cup

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should consider raising pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

To play the pot short-handed and win with a flop bet when everybody misses.

If he had raised pre-flop, it's quite possible the Button and Blinds would have folded. Then, when the flop comes King-high, it gets checked to him, he bets, his opponents fold, and the next hand is dealt.

If you aren't winning some pots that way, you aren't winning enough.

[Paluka]

I can obviously understand the argument presented for raising preflop, but can't we use this argument on basically any hand where 2 players limp? We have to draw the line somewhere. I would say that common poker knowledge says that QJo is not a raising hand preflop except when stealing the blinds. To make a convincing argument that raising is a good idea, you need better points than "it gives you a better chance of winning the pot when you miss" and "it shuts out the blinds". Obviously it does that. One could make the argument that the limpers were such poor players that isolating them is profitable, but that also means that winning a pot with a bet when you miss is much less likely.

[Dynasty]

QJo is a very strong hand in a previously unraised 3-handed pot. It will flop a pair as often as AK does and will be good almost as often.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
QJo is a very strong hand in a previously unraised 3-handed pot. It will flop a pair as often as AK does and will be good almost as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree QJo is a decent hand vs limpers, especially if they are weak players. It often dominates QT, JT, J9 and the like and has overcards vs small pairs just like AK would. But limping hands also include KJ, KQ, Axs, and sometimes AJ. But like I said, you have to draw the line somewhere. I would usually raise KQ in this spot, and sometimes KJ. I guess QJo i just below my line. I just think the hand is a bit too weak.

[Kevin J]

QJo is a VERY strong hand? Not after I limp it's not. Against reasonable players, I highly doubt it's worth the $30 to purchase the button. You're also giving no regard to the 3 remaining players yet to be heard from. It will sometimes happen that one of them has a REAL hand.

Against 1 very weak limper, and poor playing tightish players left to act, fine. With a chance to steal the blinds, sure. But the added benefits you state; "Maybe none of the remaining players will have a hand and all fold, and maybe I'll get a flop that would cause two limpers to fold for a single bet", are still not enough to make QJo worth a raise. IMO-