question on HPFAP passage. reraise with KK, QQ?

[exist]

On page 167 HPFAP says:

"...suppose you have two kings or two queens in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and six people call. Our preferred way to play this hand is to not reraise, and then when the flop comes to bet out, unless it includes an ace. You should come out betting enlisting the original preflop reraiser to be your unwitting partner to knock people out."

I was wondering: what should you do if you're holding KK and you expect the UTG preflop raiser to cap it if you reraise? It just doesn't feel right to me to give up that much preflop +EV.

The passage in HPFAP refers to KK and QQ, but it doesn't mention making this play with AA. I can only assume that S & M would reraise with AA. If so, is there really a big enough difference in strength between KK and AA to mean that you should play them much differently here?

Also, the reason S & M give for just calling is so that the UTG preflop raiser will raise your bet. But if he just has big cards, he will only raise when he gets a pair (or better), and that will not happen the majority of the time. The flop example HPFAP gives when showing the execution of this play is a rainbow T82 flop, I don't think the UTG preflop raiser will bump it up on that very often.

If you do like this play when against 7 opponents, what is the threshold for the number of opponents that eventually swing this call play to a reraise?

I'm concerned about this because my default play is to reraise. I'm aware of the effects on future play my reraise has on the rest of the hand, but I've generally considered it my goal when I get KK, QQ to cap the pot. Am I missing something important?

[brad]

well i like not raising QQ because

a) 1/2 time A or K flops and then youre toast

b) when u bet flop prflop raiser *should* raise flop, especially if he has AK. (which is more likely when u have QQ)

c) also hard to put you on QQ.

otoh, im with you KK seems too good not to reraise as a default play in any position imho.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
well i like not raising QQ because

a) 1/2 time A or K flops and then youre toast

b) when u bet flop prflop raiser *should* raise flop, especially if he has AK. (which is more likely when u have QQ)

c) also hard to put you on QQ.

otoh, im with you KK seems too good not to reraise as a default play in any position imho.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think its 1/2 the time, maybe 41% or so an overcard to your queens flops.

But even if you win only 1/2 the time with your QQ against 2 opponents, a preflop raise is giving you a profitable overlay against the field.

Also, assuming the raise represents AK is a mistake. People raise many hands, including medium pairs like 9's. And against any pair below Q's like J's, Ts' or below, you dominate. And if he has an overpair to the board, he's calling you to the river, and maybe raising you, regardless of your preflop raise. The raise is just making you money.

-Scott

[brad]

'represents AK is a mistake. People raise many hands, including medium pairs like 9's. And against any pair below Q's like J's, Ts' or below'

well i meant he should raise flop with all of those, including AK.

jsut meant that with KK he might have something like AJ in which case he might not raise, if u see what i mean.

maybe somebody can post odds of overcard flopping when u hold QQ.

maybe its 50% but 41% if someone has one of them , etc.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
'represents AK is a mistake. People raise many hands, including medium pairs like 9's. And against any pair below Q's like J's, Ts' or below'

well i meant he should raise flop with all of those, including AK.

jsut meant that with KK he might have something like AJ in which case he might not raise, if u see what i mean.

maybe somebody can post odds of overcard flopping when u hold QQ.

maybe its 50% but 41% if someone has one of them , etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you guilted me in to doing the math. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

So lets see here. First since you're afraid of both an ace and a king, lets assume one of each is in your opponents' hands.

that leaves 3 A's and 3 K's in the deck, for 6 overcards.

The deck preflop is 50 unseen/unknown cards. so the odds of flopping an overcard that gives an opponent a bigger pair to your queens are:

1 - ( 44/50 x 43/49 x 42/48)

1 - .676 = 32.4% chance of an overcard.

OK, even less than I thought. So 2/3rds of the time your queens are an overpair (or a set). Someone with AJo is a huge underdog holding only one overcard and is drawing to 3 outs to your pair of queens.

Your preflop raise is a hugely +EV play. Also remember at this point you WANT AJo to call a flop bet. He's giving you a huge overlay and is drawing quite thin.

-Scott

P.S. If there are any mistakes in my math, please correct!

[adios]

"It just doesn't feel right to me to give up that much preflop +EV."

You may be right, you may be wrong. The idea presented in the book is that you give up some pre-flop equity to gain more equity post flop. Also in context the advice was contained in the "Loose Games" section of the book. SoBeDude gave a good arguement for re-raising, is it convincing enough to directly contradict the book? I would also challenge your assumption that someone with overcards will never raise. I think the more important question is when does this play have a higher EV than re-raising pre-flop.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe its 50% but 41% if someone has one of them , etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

When one opponent holds an Ace and one opponent holds an Ace, the chances of an overcard to your QQ coming on the flop is exactly the same as you flopping top pair/top kicke when you hold AK. It's the exact same situation.

It happens 1/3 of the time.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone with AJo is a huge underdog holding only one overcard and is drawing to 3 outs to your pair of queens... you WANT AJo to call a flop bet. He's giving you a huge overlay and is drawing quite thin.


[/ QUOTE ]

No you don't. He'll certainly be getting better than the 14:1 he needs to chase his 3 outer. You want him to fold.

[brad]

technically correct but say it comes Axy with 2 hearts.

assuming you dont have Q hearts, (or maybe even if u do) youre not gonna win this one, even if no Ace out.
-------------------------------------------
but i anyway i was thinking of Ace or King flop and you dont flop set.


1 - ( (40/50) * (39/49) * (38/48) )
0.49591836734693877551020408163265


reason is that in early position against big field just nothing you can do when Ace or King flop usually.

[brad]

21 or 22 :1 if 3 bet preflop heh

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
technically correct but say it comes Axy with 2 hearts.

assuming you dont have Q hearts, (or maybe even if u do) youre not gonna win this one, even if no Ace out.
-------------------------------------------
but i anyway i was thinking of Ace or King flop and you dont flop set.


1 - ( (40/50) * (39/49) * (38/48) )
0.49591836734693877551020408163265


reason is that in early position against big field just nothing you can do when Ace or King flop usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are your numbers coming from? youre drawing to 10 cards. what are they? all 4 kings and aces, plus the two queens? how realistic is that? and if THIS IS the case, then you have nothing to fear from the aces and kings as no one is holding any of them to make bigger pairs. yes, of course straights and flushes are still possible.

Also what is this about an ace and two hearts and no way my queens will win? The flush comes every time against you does it?

I'm sorry, but I'm confused by your reply. perhaps I'm just a big dense today?

-Scott

[Tommy Angelo]

"You should come out betting enlisting the original preflop reraiser to be your unwitting partner to knock people out."

This is a most confusing sentence. "Witting" means deliberate, intentional, non-accidental. And "Unwitting means undeliberate, unintentional, accidental. Are we supposed to bet out in order to get the original preflop raiser to accidentally raise and unintentially partner up with us to thin the field??


Tommy

[mike l.]

sorry i just gotta jump in here for a second. having not read the other posts i have hunch youre all missing the real importance of this sort of hpfap question post. tommy was somewhere on the right track (surprise, surprise).

"Are we supposed to bet out in order to get the original preflop raiser to accidentally raise and unintentially partner up with us to thin the field??'

see back when they wrote it that wouldve been the case. the player on the right wouldve said "hmm, this big blind is now betting into me, well i still have JJ or AQ or whatever so i raise". but now instead many players (an unfortunte many i might add) will say to themselves "gee that's strange why is this guy betting into me when i raised preflop, he must want me to raise and clear the field for him. maybe ill fold my AQ here and he can just suffer or maybe ill wait until the turn and pop it and see how he likes it then. or maybe maybe maybe..."

hpfap did more than teach us hard and fast specific rules about hold em. it taught us how to start *thinking* about the game in directions that are productive and conducive toward great winning play. but now a lot of players think like that, so to some extent it's correct to unlearn some things, to create our own hard and fast rules to be broken in our own specifically f*cked up little hold em regions. everything becomes player dependent. attention span is everything. shifting image matters a lot. always patience. hpfap is a springboard to hold em excellence, but once youve read it 20-30 times and thought and thought and thought about it all youve gotten what you can, and you dont worry much about the plays they talk about that seem somewhat outdated or inappropriate for your own "typical" game. see what im saying? basically what s+m did with their books is set it up so the best players can work out their own site-specific, player dependent playbook in their heads; a matrix of theory and deep understanding of the game built to be tested out at the tables, as well as on this forum.

[Matt D]

Thank you very much, Mike. I will take your reasoning to every future discussion in which I slightly disagree with HPFAP. Hopefully, this reasoning will somehow be included in all similar discussions on this forum. Very well thought out and articulated.

[mike l.]

Now, this is what I call an eloquent, informative dissection of a HPFAP concept.

Well done. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[brad]

if u know Ace, King out

1 - ( 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46)
0.33626271970397779833487511563367

[Avarice]

This is by far the most articulate and thought provoking post I've ever read that doesn't use the shift key and contains the word f*cked.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
if u know Ace, King out

1 - ( 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46)
0.33626271970397779833487511563367

[/ QUOTE ]

ack! I forgot to subtract the two other known cards from the total.

Thanks for the correction!

-Scott

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we supposed to bet out in order to get the original preflop raiser to

[/ QUOTE ]

~~Snip~~

[ QUOTE ]
unintentially partner up with us to thin the field??

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good to me.

[RollaJ]

Way to Go Mike l. !!!
This is exactly what Luther did! You start with the Holy Bible and try to read it in a way that best suits your needs, claiming it is no longer as valid as when first written. What are you trying to do start some MIKE L cult following?
If the good book says smooth call, thats how it should be done. Dont "F" with a good thing /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[brad]

yeah im pretty imprecise i meant overcard flops 1/2 time *that you dont flop a set*, not adjusting for probability someone(s) has Ace or King.