99 4 handed 20-40

[mike l.]

here's an interesting hand that came up the other night around 3am. we were playing 4 handed.

loose aggressive guy limps utg, i raise w/ 99. bb calls.

flop is Q43. checked to me and i bet, bb folds, utg checkraises, i call.

the turn is 3. he bets, i call.

the river is a T. he checks. i check.

comments?

[Dynasty]

I would bet the river. That 3 on the turn is a lousy card but I still think it's likely that he can't beat 99. Even if he has 56, I like betting the river to let him feel he can't push you off hands.

[J_V]

Why is the 3 a lousy card?

[Dynasty]

Since this opponent didn't raise pre-flop, he's very unlikely to hold a pocket pair. So, those flop check-raises often indicate a flopped pair. That means he's got a Queen, 4, or 3. And, I'm skeptical about him hold a Queen without a pre-flop raise. On the turn, one of the weak pairs just improved. Of course, his opponent could have check-raised the flop with a draw.

[anatta]

I have been playing tons of shorthanded poker lately, but I still am not used to making good bets on the end. On paper, its easy for me to look back at the hand you played and justify a bet on the end. At the table, at three a.m., with third pair, man, pocket nines just be good. I know, this is not good poker...

[mike l.]

you guys are on the right track. i knew i was missing a bet on the river, or was i? see this guy could have ANY queen suited and he had a little respect for me. so he may have checked the river out of an irrational fear that i had Q better kicker. so that trey didnt hit him, his check on the river is true weakness, but he has a hand of showdown value, he's not giving up on a bluff. is it a weak Q or a 4 though or something else? what's his exact hand? i bet you can guess it. (hint: he checkraised the flop).

[Schneids]

I have three guesses:
A4, 55, or 66 -- but leaning most towards A4.